Quote from ktm:
I have a question for you. In the cases where you placed an asterisk next to the hand, why did you do so? In other words, what made this a gut hand rather than a clearly playable hand? Obviously, AA KK etc... (Sklansky Group I hands) are played, but does the cut go down into group II? Would a "gut hand" be one that you might play based on being near/on the button where you would fold otherwise?
Good question. Firstly, I never asterisked any hand pre-flop. For the most part I play by the book for the pocket, and any variations (eg. not raising AA) are fairly well-calculated to the type of players at the table.
I am very curious about this. I feel that "gut" is not really anything more than experience and knowledge applied to a set of factors that are too complex to extrapolate in the brief moment that a decision needs to be made. [/QUOTE]
That is my current hypothesis, though I am willing to question how often it is true.
(When I was a beginning poker player, my gut told me to make some really stupid plays.)[/QUOTE]
This is much of the reason I question the aforementioned hypothesis.
For example, certain hands in certain table positions with certain other players with known habits are more favorable than when conditions might be different. While I can't take each element and evaluate the probabilities before I decide to play or fold, my brain does this very quickly for me, thus providing a "gut" move. AA is not a gut move, it gets played. The betting may be based on "gut", but again there is much history, knowledge and experience behind the seasoned player who is trying to get the most money into the pot of a hand that he is highly likely to win.
This is just my feeling. I could be way off here. I'm curious as to how you determine a gut hand vs. a non-gut hand.[/QUOTE]
A good explanation. It would an overstatement to say I had ever achieved "seasoned" status. So, I wanted to know how well I was making decisions. A "gut" decision was any decision I made where I wasn't making a cognitive reference to some known rule. However, I did not count decisions made when I knew I knew the rule but couldn't remember what it was (I have an untrained memory that fails me quite often) and so had to make my best guess. A "gut" move was when I had this, or a similar thought running through my head: "I have never read about this, I don't have any evidence that what I am about to do is right, but goddam it has to be! Okay, maybe this guy is an expert but he looks like a shmuck to me and I think I've got him beat so I am going all out."
The first time I had a read on a player was the first time I played well at a $5/10 table. I had been sitting for about 30 minutes when to my right sits this fat gumba wearing this gaudy ring on his finger. I thought he looked like an ass and when he asked for chips I felt absolutely sure I had him pegged. Across the table was a homely looking women with a blue baseball cap who wasn't getting much respect but I figured for a pretty good player. My first hand was KK and I raised after Gumba's call. Everyone folded except the blue hat lady who re-raised. Gumba called and so did I. The flop came Q and two low-cards with no two suited. Blue hat had been under the blind and checked, Gumba bet. I raised only to be re-raised by blue hat, followed by a Gumba call. I folded, and watched closely. The next card was sub-Queen and blue hat checked - and whatta you know Gumba bet only to be raised by blue hat. Now Gumba mutters something and I immediately think, yeah what a bitch for check raising you fuckin' dope your done, now fold. Not Gumba he calls. The river is a K and now Gumba lights up and starts raising too - oh shit he made his hand!? Blue hat had no fear and took down the maxed pot with QQQ over gumba's KK xx two pair. I knew he couldn't have trip K's and had figured blue hat for the trip Q's so I wasn't surprised - but Gumba sure was, and pissed too.
I had to wait 45 minutes to get another playable hand and it was not easy but I was disciplined that time - probably because I had this 250 pound carrot just waiting to be picked sitting immediately to my right. Eventually I started getting hands and blue hat and I finished taking Gumba's $300 initial buy-in as well as $300-400 additional chips he decided to give away.
At the this time I hadn't been recording my hands, and my play would really not have been recorded since I had folded at the flop. But it was a gut feeling that blue hat had QQQ. Not that I had no clue going in - she had seemed to be playing well up until then, tight and aggressive - but folding a pocket pair at that point was the right move. Some might say - Yeah but you would've won with KKK! But that's hogwash, the fact is I had a losing hand at the flop and I would've been betting on a losing hand against a good player - too good to bluff out of QQQ.
And, some symmetry: In one of the later hands I won with trip J's against Gumba's trip 10's while - and this was only my feeling at the time - blue hat folded two pair at the turn.
