Poker and the Beginning Trader

hi wdbaker

Actually, you're not the only one who has suggested this - I have joined the boards at twoplustwo

http://www.twoplustwo.com/

and I've had a lot of good advice there. Once they found out that I am trying to implement a tight/aggressive style as described in Lee Jones "Winning Low Limit Hold 'Em", more than one veteran suggested that I try the 1.00/2.00 tables. They also say that my variance should decrease. I have a theory that for inexperienced players, the variance isn't the thing that kills by itself - it's the TILT and the other more subtle changes in playing strategy that occur when you get creamed two or three times in a row while playing well. Anyway, I am going to give it a try. Strangely, I opened an account at UltimateBet, because they had the LOWER limit tables, and I am doing a lot better over there than I do at paradise. My winning expectation in big bets per hour has changed considerably, and I am now keeping a jounal of all my sessions (how many times have I heard winning traders say that they do this!). I download my hand histories, and it is AMAZING to see some of the borderline calls I make when I think I am in fact playing pretty well.

Great to hear that you are grinding out the wins.

BTW, SUPat, that PM is coming SOON :)
 
I think this is the longest I have ever gone between posts since I found this board a couple of years ago. It may very well be my last. I stopped trading about a week ago planning on sitting aside until the war is over but I may not resume trading at all. The only reason I got into trading was for something to occupy my mind. March 1st marked my third year of trading. I think I dropped about 20k over the three years but I dont regret it. It was a great trip. I managed to learn how to trade but I never did manage to develope the self control that is neccessary to make it. I never did find a way to prevent those blowout days where you wipe out a weeks hard work in a day. Because of this thread I got interested in online poker and it has pretty much changed my life. I played a lot when I was younger and have found it pretty easy to make money and since it is available 24/7 it does a a better job of keeping me occupied than trading. I love the single table tournements and I think they will become huge down the line. Anyway thanks TraderNik for starting this thread and best of luck to you all.
 
great post. this post has really gotten me interested in poker. I've been avid sportsbetter for years, and playing the odds is what I do best. Thanks for all of the information about books and sites etc....At the very least I'll learn a new skill, and maybe make a small profit :D
 
Poker is going very well, thanks - hope your game is in good shape too. Some observations for fellow beginners -

I have been playing a lot and took my first withdrawl of profits some 3 weeks back. Playing mostly at UB, .25/.50 - paying my dues. If I make another $75, I figure I'll be about breakeven.

The parallels between trading and hold-em are still relevant, IMO. The most important lesson I have learned is how to deal with losing streaks. In the micro-stakes games, your variance (i.e. the fluctuations in your bankroll) can be very large - whiplash inducing to say the least. I have had streaks where I quickly made up to 75 Big Bets over the course of, say 10 hours of play, only to give it all back in the next 10 hours. I have been a regular reader and occasional contributor at the 2+2 poker forums

http://www.twoplustwo.com

and the regulars there have pointed out to me that at the higher limits, one shouldn't expect to make more than 2 Big Bets per hour over the very long run - some have suggested that 1/2 to 1 1/4 Big Bets per hour is more like it. This is over the course of thousands of hours of play. A few weeks back, the cards just started to run cold. No playable pockets; when they came, the flop missed me; when it didn't, I was beaten by rags on the river. I remember just sitting there and staring (gaping) at the screen. All sorts of things crossed my mind - 'This site is crooked - there must be shills at this table - the random number generator is malfunctioning.. '(The market makers are crooked - my broker is ripping me off... ). I got really down for a while and started questioning my ability to play. I had been doing well, and now....

However, the streak ended. What I did was - I got back to the very conservative strategy that had brought about my first winning weeks, which had come about after I had stopped playing, started reading, then gone back to the tables with a plan. After my inital success, I modified my strategy somewhat because I found that it was easier for me to make money at the 6-player tables than at the 10-player tables. To kill the losing streak, I went back to the ten-player tables and started playing only the premium hands. After a while, things turned around. At one point I had contacted a few friends at 2+2, pleading for an explanation for my monumental 8-day losing streak... when they stopped laughing they proceeded to describe some of their own losing streaks (these are players with upwards of twenty years experience). I felt better about things after that :)

I am not suggesting any particular strategies to anyone - one thing I have seen is that things change a LOT at the higher limits.

Another parallel between trading and poker might be - don't sit down at a table at which they are playing a game with which you are unfamiliar. One day at Paradise, I was winning and I thought - "I am going to try a $2/$4 5-player table". I lost $40 in literally 6 minutes, to a crazy raiser who just seemed to be completely on tilt. I don't know what he was doing to this day - all I know is that I got caught up trying to play his crazy raising game and he cleaned my clock. So if you are a beginning QQQ trader and you get tempted to put on that Soybean trade, just be extra careful. It doesn't mean don't try, just have your stop written in stone.
 
Quote from traderNik:

However, the streak ended. What I did was - I got back to the very conservative strategy that had brought about my first winning weeks -

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More...

That sums it up right there.

You have to play to win, but stay on the conservative side.

"better safe than sorry", that's the best way to go.


Best of luck to you.
 
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