Poker and the Beginning Trader

Quote from THERUDEBOY:

What type of fucking dickhead makes a resembalance between poker and trading? There is one born every minute.
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Really, have you read this thread. If you have you surely missed the point. The point being that there are enormous correlations between techniques used as a successful trader and the skill set necessary to be a profitable poker player. These skills are transferable and you surely would recognize this if you are a consistently profitable trader and have also played poker in other than nickle and dime home games.

Obviously RudeBoy you clearly have displayed your rudeness as well as your ignorance.

Please don't read the thread as you may learn some valuable information...
 
Quote from whitster:

i am somebody on this board constantly touting game theory, and how risk/money management is the most important (or at a minimum) an exceptionally important part of trading. and also a huge student of game theory, as it relates to trading, and the especially the zero sum nature of both futures trading, options trading, and poker

equities of course are not zero sum, but i digress :)

anyway, i know VERY little about the game of poker, but i know game theory and trading, so i thought (in my N=1 spirit), i';d give it a try

i did. tonight. for the last 5 hrs and still going strong :)

anyway, the resemblance is AMAZING. in terms of the risk/money management factors, and that in poker you don't play your cards... you play the other players. in futures, you don't play the instrument (dow, whatever), you play the other traders

i did the "play money " table for an hour and quadrupled my money playing no limit and moved to the real money tables, and multiplied my money by 5.

so far :)

i have already set a stop loss - if i go below 400% im going out

anyways, my point is that game theory, risk management, money management, playing hi probability setups, and pouncing whne they present themselves blah blah blah are amazingly similar to trading

when im winning it's the exact same mindset as trading, the same "zone"

anyways...

i have reconfirmed my already strongly held beliefs about game theory, trading, risk mangement as it refers to trading. i'm even seeing my same EMOTIONAL mistakes that i make in trading carry over to poker if i do not discipline myself. and i am playing the personalities of these electronic opponents

i like no limit, because like trading, it allows essentially unlimited managment of position sizing, so i go low when it's high risk and hi positioning when it's low risk, etc.

there is no magic indicator. there is no holy grail

traders need to perform good risk management, money management, jealously protect capital, and understand game theory imo

those who do, will continue to take money from those who don't

and of course being properl;y capitalized is nice :)
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Whistler,

Do you mind sharing any books you would recommend on gaming theory. I have checked amazon and don't know where to start? Thank you in advance.

Dan
 
Quote from THERUDEBOY:

What type of @*#!ing dickhead makes a resembalance between poker and trading? There is one born every minute.
More...

I would suspect just about any of us dickheads with reasonable success at both.:D :D

P.S. and I really don't excuse you profanity, as I see no excuse for it. But, I could be wrong.
 
Quote from baggerlord:

I was trading(poorly) a few years ago and heard poker skills help your trading. So I read a book and started playing, and closed my trading account about a week later! I found poker so much easier than trading it was incredible. I'm a serious player now, currently playing for a living(unintentionally, long story...). I work as a prop or schill for a small site, mainly playing 5/10 and 10/20. I can tell you with 100% confidence the games are fair, house players do not see the cards, and collusion is rare and innefective. Any decent player can spot it in about 2 hands. Now that I am a good poker player, I feel like I am ready to give the markets another try. The skillls seem very similiar to me, mainly disipline and money management. The techniques come with a little experience.

BTW neteller is by far the best way to move money for poker. I know lots of online pros and they all use it without exception. Some of these guys keep 100-200k online so don't worry about your 2k!

Partypoker is the best place to play for most. For very high limit games there are a few other sites, and there are prop deals out there. Those are the only reasons not to play on party IMO.

And just like trading don't play if you don't have enough $. You will lose guaranteed.

IMO trading is WAY more difficult than poker, but I can't say that for sure until I become a winning trader I guess. The reason I am going back to trading is that in poker, the higher you go the tougher the games get. Trading 1 ES is the same as 100, so I am out to see if I can't trade 1 ES well.
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I love your story...

But the complexity of poker FAR exceeds the complexity of trading.
Many people MAKE trading complicated...
By introducing crazy TA or algo methods that are of very questionable value.

A reasonable comparison would be:

(1) The decisions a Market maker makes to (a) maintain a decent bid/ask spread and (b) profit from it.

(2) The decisions a top Poker Pro makes for 10 hours at the Final Table of a major tournament.

#2 Poker Pro's are infinitely more complex.
The Final Table is strategic analysis and mano-a-mano combat at it's highest level.

#1 The Market Maker's is Mickey Mouse math you can do in your sleep... with the occasional tricky situation.

Since you are only a shill at low-mid level online games...
Meaning you are playing 90% of the time against terrible players...
This no where near pro tournament level poker.

But you could probably easily translate your skills into trading success...
If a successful trader gave you some good direction.

One can learn PRECISELY how to win at poker at the highest level via the Web...
All the information is out there...
Unfortunately, I have seen very, very little useful info about successful trading...
Because people don't talk...
And what is of value is buried under endless bullshit put out by the securitues industry and losing traders.

There are people here with 500 posts giving advice that are "paper traders".
At 2+2... people like that would be ignored or get run off the board.

rm+

:cool: :cool: :cool:
 
i find it amusing redman, the way you use almost every thread as an example to inject your anti-TA prejudices into the fold (no pun intended)

poker, especially no limit, is very psychologically based.

as is trading

TA *is* ultimately the study of psychology, to a large extent, as i explained in another thread, since price is ultimately one thing and one thing only - opinion, and price moves for one reason and one reason only, a change in supply and demand @ given price(s), which is ultimately - a CHANGE in opinion. and opinion, and actions taken to reinforce or abandon same are subject to the same psychological swings we see throughout history, and i aint just talking tulips - hope, fear, greed, euphoria, etc

TA is not crazy or mystical, it is only people who misunderstand TA (practitioners or critics) who make it such, much like many TA people try to argue the futility of fundamental analysis (which is equally silly).

trading ISN'T complicated. it's simple. but it aint EASY. big difference.

from what i've seen of poker thus far, it is more complex, but it is also easier to isolate fish, and use your stack to advantage, which u can't do in trading as much (just ask the hunts)

and trading, like poker, ultimately comes down significantly to risk management, money management and playing yourself as much as the market and others.

TA is just a tool to model the supply demand curve and trader's actions
 
Quote from whitster:

i find it amusing redman, the way you use almost every thread as an example to inject your anti-TA prejudices into the fold (no pun intended)

poker, especially no limit, is very psychologically based.

as is trading

TA *is* ultimately the study of psychology, to a large extent, as i explained in another thread, since price is ultimately one thing and one thing only - opinion, and price moves for one reason and one reason only, a change in supply and demand @ given price(s), which is ultimately - a CHANGE in opinion. and opinion, and actions taken to reinforce or abandon same are subject to the same psychological swings we see throughout history, and i aint just talking tulips - hope, fear, greed, euphoria, etc

TA is not crazy or mystical, it is only people who misunderstand TA (practitioners or critics) who make it such, much like many TA people try to argue the futility of fundamental analysis (which is equally silly).

trading ISN'T complicated. it's simple. but it aint EASY. big difference.

from what i've seen of poker thus far, it is more complex, but it is also easier to isolate fish, and use your stack to advantage, which u can't do in trading as much (just ask the hunts)

and trading, like poker, ultimately comes down significantly to risk management, money management and playing yourself as much as the market and others.

TA is just a tool to model the supply demand curve and trader's actions
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It's funny how you notice that :) :)
People are coming from very different places...
Depending on what approach has made them successful.

Also...
Over 15 years I have met countless day trading losers...
That are ** no better ** than degenerate gamblers...
And nearly all of them are self-destructing with some variation of TA.

For example, psychology plays virtually no role in my trading.
I trade exotic, illiquid stocks... and am not part of the "herd" trading the hi volume stuff.
What is useful to know trading QQQQ... is completely useless when trading NFL.
I exploit temporary mispricing... and trade a lot with the Specialists.

So I ** know ** quantitative analysis works... one can prove it statistically.
No one even attempts to prove the statistical validity of TA.
But general stuff like your "psychological swing" speech seems to greatly satisfy all TA buffs.

Also...
The really big difference between poker and trading in the ** level of variance **.
Even great players go through long losing streaks...
That's why in the pro ranks most players "sell" a piece of themselves...
And buy pieces of other top players...
Effectively creating "coalitions" that distribute winnings with less variance.

Also...
The worst hand at the table is the 2nd best hand... it's the one that will hand you a crushing loss.
Nothing comparable exists in trading.

A good hedger experiences only minor variance...
For example, right now I have lost money (about 0.5% of capital) over the last 6-7 trading days.
This might happen several times/year... with max drawdowns of 2-3%...
But this year I will almost certainly show a profit 12 out 12 months.
So after spending quite a bit of time on online poker... I'll take the low variance lifestyle of hedging anyday.

rm+

:cool: :cool: :cool:
 
Regarding the "only one correct way to play poker" post. This is an article in which Howard Lederer talks about Alan Goerhing



The Genius of Alan Goerhing

Anytime I play poker, I see it as an opportunity to learn. At the WPO last year in Tunica, I had Alan Goerhing at my starting table. To say the least, Alan plays a very different game than me. But he has had a lot of success in big no-limit hold'em tournaments. And I wanted to see what he was doing that I might be able to use in my own game. In particular, he seems to be able to build huge leads early, and sometimes bring it all the way home.

I love that poker can accommodate many different winning styles. It is important to not dismiss other winning players just because they don't play like you. Instead you should see what it is that they are doing right.

The day got off to a quick start for Alan, as he slow played AA against KK and busted someone. He then flopped Queen?s full to win another big pot. By the third level, he had about 32,000. He was off to a very fast start and he was getting some big hands. But, I felt that it was his reputation as a loose player and his aggressive style that was letting him capitalize on his good fortune. He dabbles in a lot of pots. He likes to make small raises and small bluffs, but if he gets a big hand, he likes to put the hammer down. His reputation allows him to get paid off when he does make a good hand. Soon the fireworks started.

With the blinds 100-200, he opened the pot for 400 from late position. It was his usual small bring in. The big blind re-raised, making it 1600 total. Alan then did a strange thing; he re-raised 2000 more. This play can't win the pot before the flop, but I guess he just wanted to make the pot a little bigger while he got to play the hand in position. The flop came Kh 4c 5c. And it went check, check. The turn brought (Kh 4c 5c) 6c. The big blind bet 5000 and Alan moved him in for 4000 more. The big blind thought about for a little while, but he couldn?t fold his AhKc. He called and asked Alan if he had the aces with the A of clubs. Alan just laughed, and turned over the 3h3d. Wow!! A pretty crazy play but he did have a few outs. The river came no change and he was down to 18,000. The way the hand played though, if the big blind had a pocket pair under the K, he would have folded.

A couple of hands later, Alan limped in middle position, and about 4 players saw a cheap flop. The flop came 4c 4h Qd. Everyone checked. The turn was (4c 4h Qd) 6h. It went check, check, from the blinds and Alan bet 600. It went fold, fold to the big blind who raised it to 2000 and Alan called. The river came (4c 4h Qd 6h) Kc. The big blind moved in for 5000 more and Alan called instantly. The big blind said you win and Alan proudly displayed his Ac6c. Wow again!! I wouldn?t have played the hand in the first place, but to win about 8000 with one small pair was pretty impressive. One thing was obvious. He had taken a great read, but it was the fact that he is often taking small stabs at pots that gets people to bluff at him a lot. He knows how his style affects people and he used to his advantage beautifully in that hand.

A little while later Peter Costa opened in first position for 600 and everyone folded to Alan in the big blind and he called. The flop came 4h Jc Jh. They both checked. The turn was (4h Jc Jh) 9s. Alan bet 800, about half the pot and Peter called. The river was (4h Jc Jh 9s) 4c. Alan again bet about half the pot, 1500. Peter thought about it for a while and then he folded the AA face up! Alan then turned over KK!!!! Wow, wow. How did he do that? He didn't double Peter up before the flop, and then he managed to beat the AA without improving or risking a lot of chips.

My day had not gone well. I was down to about 6500 at the start of the next hand. I was in middle position and looked down at QQ. I opened the pot for 600. It was folded to Alan and he raised it to 1400. In all the hands I have seen Alan play, either in person or on TV, I had never seen him fast-play a really big pair before the flop. After his raise, there would be 2900 if I called. With only 5100 left I didn't feel like I could fold on any flop and given the fact that I felt like my hand was good, I moved in before the flop. He quickly called and to my dismay, he turned over KK. The board did not help my hand and I was out of the tourney and headed home early.

As I walked away from the table, I could only marvel at this amazing two hand sequence. Alan had just won two back-to-back pots with KK. He somehow just called against the AA before the flop, and then confused his opponent out of the pot later. And he got me to put all of my money in before the flop with QQ.

I was not only disappointed at my loss, I was also disappointed that my day of Goerhing watching had to come to an end. No single player has ever offered me more entertainment in one session than Alan did that day. And I would guess that no player other than Alan could have showed a profit with the back-to-back KK's. Surely, 99% of players would have doubled Peter up for over 12,000 on the KK vs. AA hand, and then busted me for about half the loss on the next hand. I am looking forward to sitting across from Alan Goerhing again soon. I may not do any better, but I know I will be thoroughly entertained.
 
People will see resembalances in anything they want to. I'm sure people will say that they have seen cloud formations that look like Elvis. Seeing may be believing, your just seeing and believing the wrong things.

All in?
 
"It's funny how you notice that
People are coming from very different places...
Depending on what approach has made them successful."

but unlike you, i am not belittling an approach that i DON'T use merely because i don't understand it or use it.

i believe you can be successful using quant analysis, fundies, TA, etc. it is NOT the method that will prove your success. it is your application of it, and of course the most important will be money management.

i use TA on intraday index futures. i use fundies quite frequently on stocks and indexes. i combo them, etc. i bought gold almost entirely on fundies 3 yrs ago.


"Also...
Over 15 years I have met countless day trading losers...
That are ** no better ** than degenerate gamblers...
And nearly all of them are self-destructing with some variation of TA."

so what? most small businesses lose too. Trading is a business. does this mean that small business founders are "degenerate gamblers?"

the problem is not with TA. TA is just a modeling tool.

most traders HAVE to lose. (note: traders, not investors). it's the nature of the market. it's a GOOD thing. losing traders provide winning traders liquidity and their stops and margin calls fuel the runs that we really bank on. props to them


"For example, psychology plays virtually no role in my trading.
I trade exotic, illiquid stocks... and am not part of the "herd" trading the hi volume stuff.
What is useful to know trading QQQQ... is completely useless when trading NFL.
I exploit temporary mispricing... and trade a lot with the Specialists."

that's great but it doesn't disprove the importance of psychology. i look for opportunities. and i use whatever gives me an edge. i generally am a contrarian - buy panic, sell strength. use what works for you. however, don't tell me TA doesn't work - because it is very workable for me. YMMV


"So I ** know ** quantitative analysis works... one can prove it statistically."

of course it works. i love quant stuff. there doesn't need to be this false dichotomy, where if u are a quant, then (insert analysis form here) sux.

"No one even attempts to prove the statistical validity of TA.
But general stuff like your "psychological swing" speech seems to greatly satisfy all TA buffs."

look, i went to grad school for psychology. i deal with psychology every day. dealt with a schizophrenic yesterday fwiw. that was interesting. regardless, the market is composed of people, and people have this nifty little thing caused psychology. ANYBODY who trades has witnessed the devestating and often predictable effects of psychology on their OWN trading. the more i travel and meet the people, the more i recognize the commonalities between peeps. why do u think the markets are any different - they are composed of PEOPLE.


"Also...
The really big difference between poker and trading in the ** level of variance **."

depends on what u trade

intraday trade 1 contract YM with 2k in yer contract and you'll have lots of variance


"Even great players go through long losing streaks...
That's why in the pro ranks most players "sell" a piece of themselves...
And buy pieces of other top players...
Effectively creating "coalitions" that distribute winnings with less variance."

and that's why i have 4 accounts with different methodologies, time frames, and instruments (to some extent) to have noncorrelated (to some extent) accounts that smooth my equity curve

i b&H many equities almost solely on fundies (my faves have been HANS BA PIXR & AAPL). that's one account

i daytrade YM in another

i swingtrade in another (stocks, futures, options) and have done some groovy spread trades as well.

and i have a daytrading account for stocks.

that helps to smooth it out.

"Also...
The worst hand at the table is the 2nd best hand... it's the one that will hand you a crushing loss.
Nothing comparable exists in trading."

actually, in NoLimit, playing 2nd best hands will crush you.

in limit holdem, that is not the same problem

the differences between NL and L HE are very different in this regards.

so far i've found much better success at NL right now. L is not as much my cup of tea thus far. this surprises me not too much, since NL is so much a game of psychology and money management - much like TRADING

"A good hedger experiences only minor variance...
For example, right now I have lost money (about 0.5% of capital) over the last 6-7 trading days.
This might happen several times/year... with max drawdowns of 2-3%...
But this year I will almost certainly show a profit 12 out 12 months.
So after spending quite a bit of time on online poker... I'll take the low variance lifestyle of hedging anyday"

kewl. i love hedging and spread trading. it's PART of my portfolio

and i've done it with LORD FORBID TA among other things...

to paraphrase, redman ... there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your narrow philosophy
 
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