Poised to pop *again*......SPX edition.

[beerntrading]

Think this continues the drive upwards next week? From my vantage point, this looks like a bullish day with an (expected) tech correction. Consumer defensive and utilities lagged while the broader market moved up and tech dragged down the indices.

The FAANGs held pre 5/18 support today with some very pretty long-legged dojis. I've got all the guard dogs out tonight and bear spray on my belt, but I'll sleep well tonight. Ready to continue our drive to 2450!

 

[tommcginnis]

My read is that, while we may climb tomorrow(?), it'll be another very-low-volume day, maintain that into Tuesday close, and Wednesday, cue the crickets until 13:55hrs, when all hell breaks lose, taking off completely at 14:00hrs, with the SPX Orbiter leaving Earth's atmosphere at the start of the press conference, 14:30hrs.

Uh-ohhhhhhhh. 22 hours to go. Declining ES volume for 3 days.... and *sheeesh!* I feel no better informed than when I wrote "Poised to Pop" as a title.
But I just don't feel a big storm, either. Either way, even.
Just to throw (one) scenario out there, I can see us opening tomorrow at today's close, rising 5-10 points, whip-sawing a bit at 2pm, and closing 10-15 points above the open. (With a LOT of volume.) Further, if we do go higher on volume? I can see that as a short squeeze, and would expect Thursday to ease down, very slowly, low-ish VIX in evidence, to close 10-15 points above *today's* close.

Beer is on order.
https://flat12.me/on-tap/half-cycle

 

[beerntrading]

Uh-ohhhhhhhh. 22 hours to go. Declining ES volume for 3 days.... and *sheeesh!* I feel no better informed than when I wrote "Poised to Pop" as a title.
But I just don't feel a big storm, either. Either way, even.
Just to throw (one) scenario out there, I can see us opening tomorrow at today's close, rising 5-10 points, whip-sawing a bit at 2pm, and closing 10-15 points above the open. (With a LOT of volume.) Further, if we do go higher on volume? I can see that as a short squeeze, and would expect Thursday to ease down, very slowly, low-ish VIX in evidence, to close 10-15 points above *today's* close.

Beer is on order.
https://flat12.me/on-tap/half-cycle

I'm an IPA guy myself. Looks like we share the same view of the market and the beer. You in IN? Back when I did my time there, Keystone ruled (and at $11 for a case of tallboys, why wouldn't it?!)

I hit it out of the park today, so I'll probably let the options decay overnight and close out around 1:30 tomorrow then sit out till Friday when the dust settles.

And fwiw, I'd say the SPX did indeed pop today relative to your Thursday call--I think your read was good even for Friday albeit with tech dragging. I'm sure that's little consolation if you were actually long on the ES though...

Edit: I'll put it this way...had you said the SPX was going down Friday, I would have called that a bad read with good luck.

 

[tommcginnis]

"We're going to fart around here for a fortnight, until another boat payment is due."

I think we all voted for the wrong pony.