Poised to pop *again*......SPX edition.

[tommcginnis]

After another day of NYSI TRIN closing at a *very* bearish 1.34 (and yet the SPX barely budges!), the way things have gone for half-a-year or so, tomorrow can be expected to have a very bullish TRIN of 0.60-0.70, and the SPX will, like today, mull around a ±10pts, but a pop (15-25 pts) is around the corner.

Tomorrow?
Wednesday at 2pm??

Sheeesh, man.....

 

[Baron]

What's really missing here is a catalyst event to cause a wide-sweeping negative sentiment. So far, the only thing that really seems to be swirling out there is that "things have been going good for too long, so it's got to change soon." But that's not really enough. We need a "holy shit" event to send things into correction mode. Otherwise, things are going to remain in trickle-up status because there's no compelling reason for them not to at this point.

 

[speedo]

Gartman has made a career lately of being wrong but I love the way he described this market..."it's melting up."

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

visibility is bad (fundamental market data won't get better), + VIX is too low.

 

[tommcginnis]

visibility is bad (fundamental market data won't get better), + VIX is too low.

Yeah-but, how can the market "get better" when you've low unemployment; earnings and revenues beats; whoa[!]-low inflation; a business-friendly party in the White House, Senate, and House; low oil, low metals; and a market outlook that sez, "Balanced risks abroad mean steady-as-she-goes..." I mean, what (besides little things like wages) is there to beat?

My read is that, while we may climb tomorrow(?), it'll be another very-low-volume day, maintain that into Tuesday close, and Wednesday, cue the crickets until 13:55hrs, when all hell breaks lose, taking off completely at 14:00hrs, with the SPX Orbiter leaving Earth's atmosphere at the start of the press conference, 14:30hrs.

(Is that too many analogies?)

 

[kashirin]

What's really missing here is a catalyst event to cause a wide-sweeping negative sentiment. So far, the only thing that really seems to be swirling out there is that "things have been going good for too long, so it's got to change soon." But that's not really enough. We need a "holy shit" event to send things into correction mode. Otherwise, things are going to remain in trickle-up status because there's no compelling reason for them not to at this point.

there won't be any compelling catalyst as everything that might be will be met with more money printing

the question is what can be a catalyst which will stop money printing?
at least in the next 10 years I don't see anything that can

And another thing - algos. can you change algos sentiment? I suspect they are always in the same mood.

 

[tommcginnis]

there won't be any compelling catalyst as everything that might be will be met with more money printing

the question is what can be a catalyst which will stop money printing?

"More money printing"??? You've never heard of inflation, have you? Quantity Theory Of Money? MV = PQ and all that? Or, M = PQ/V, as it were? If I jack up the M, then either GDP has got to increase, or we've got inflation. Since both P and Q have been stuck in low gear.....
and V is down to femtoseconds........

[cue Homer Simpson: "Damn that Quantity Theory of Money....!"]

 

[kashirin]

"More money printing"??? You've never heard of inflation, have you? Quantity Theory Of Money? MV = PQ and all that? Or, M = PQ/V, as it were? If I jack up the M, then either GDP has got to increase, or we've got inflation. Since both P and Q have been stuck in low gear.....
and V is down to femtoseconds........

[cue Homer Simpson: "Damn that Quantity Theory of Money....!"]

I hear about inflation since 2010
where is it?

 

[themickey]

...And another thing - algos. can you change algos sentiment? I suspect they are always in the same mood.

Good point you made, but algos are controlled by humans.
When the human operator sees the bears are finally in control, then the operator will pull his 'bear lever' and the selling will begin in earnest, the shorts will finally have their day in the sun.
The bears are all Polar Bears, white skinned from lack of sunshine and vitamin D, who knows how long the Arctic summer for them will last, perhaps the end of their winter like ice age is coming.

 

[tommcginnis]

I hear about inflation since 2010
where is it?

Exactly.
But your first post implied rampant, un-reasoned printing of money. The steady performance (on the Monetary Policy side) of the economy connotes a precise and well-executed 'printing of money.'