PMI Manufacturing Sentiment

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newwurldmn

What does this number mean? Is this move significant?

I have never paid attention to it but now it might have more relevance than ever to me.

It looks like it's an oscillating number and we are breaking the lower area of the range (implying more pessimism from Purchasing managers). Historically it looks like the rate of change from bottom of the range to the top and vice versa over exaggerate the actual economic change.

Further, it's been dropping all year but manufacturing output continues to be strong.

Does anyone have any insight into the value of this number and what insights can be gleaned from the recent changes?
 
I'm very macro in that business' I'm in mandate some degree of awareness of what lies over the next hill. The tweetmeister has thrown a monkey wrench into much of that process. People involved in supply chain mfg. that's dependent on exports as well as domestic , aircraft, autos, etc. need to pay attention as economies are demonstrating fragility. Fragility can bleed through asset classes and into recessions. U.S. is still apparently the cleanest dirty shirt in a world running on stupid. Excuse my offering a Zero Edge article filled with pertinent info. I'm aware the ET mensa use it for toilet paper.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)
 
Banjo said:
I'm very macro in that business' I'm in mandate some degree of awareness of what lies over the next hill. The tweetmeister has thrown a monkey wrench into much of that process. People involved in supply chain mfg. that's dependent on exports as well as domestic , aircraft, autos, etc. need to pay attention as economies are demonstrating fragility. Fragility can bleed through asset classes and into recessions. U.S. is still apparently the cleanest dirty shirt in a world running on stupid. Excuse my offering a Zero Edge article filled with pertinent info. I'm aware the ET mensa use it for toilet paper.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-manufacturing-weakest-2009-business-sentiment-stuck-gloomy-levels?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)
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The slowdown REALLY came on May 5th, 2019. If Trump does another round of tariff increases in Q4 2019? It's over.

Enter the next recession.

That's the scenario.

 
The market is caught between a few major forces:

1. Extremely stretched (by historical standards) valuations for all asset classes with little margin of safety in pricing, thanks to years/decades of CB intervention.

2. Global social mood turning sour, as is global sentiment on trade integration / globalization. The U.S.-China trade dispute ebbs and flows but isn't permanently going away anytime soon, and represents a larger secular trend. In the U.S., Democrats are turning very anti-business / anti-wealthy / anti-markets.

3. Hard to see where earnings growth is going to come from. There's basically no slack remaining in the U.S. and little prospect of boosting sales overseas.

4. A clear bursting bubble in the hypervalued profitless unicorn space. Not that dramatic on its own, but weighs on sentiment and may affect investment + demand for business services, office space, etc.

5. Despite all the above there's no clear catalyst to spark a rotation out of equities as an asset class, and nobody wants to sell for fear of missing the next leg up - which can happen if the Fed launches QE4 and the economic storm clouds dissipate for a while.

I reckon it's a recipe for rapid short-term panics followed by V-recoveries, increasing dispersion among different stocks/sectors... at the index level we'll wake up in three or four years right where we are today.
 
unfortunately the news is soo major , the market moved violently, and my charting software freezed for few minutes despite the fact that I have powerful computer and internet speed.
 
maxinger said:
unfortunately the news is soo major , the market moved violently, and my charting software freezed for few minutes despite the fact that I have powerful computer and internet speed.
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Would you happen to be using NinjaTrader 7?
 
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