Quote from MoneyWalks:
I should say that price behaviour it just tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
People think that technical analysis is unreliable because they tend to pick the one thing they are comfortable with. The problem is that no single technical approach works all the time. You have to know when to use each method. It is experience and gut feel what makes one know when to use each approach.
The reson for what a certain prices move does today may not be known for days, or weeks or months, but you must act instantly or be left so the why oh why can wait.
I should say that a price action helps only those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read.
Correctly reading price action is not something that can easily be taught. and over time I'm under the impression that it is more of an art form than a science.
Best Regards
Greetings,
i have a little different view.
I know my historical backtesting statistical analyzing of market behaviour, tells me exactly the odds in % of the future market way, watched from the current price situation.
Everything can happen all the time, but i can tell you the odds% what will happen, if this or that happens, thats the deal about it.
Price action of course is necesarry, what means reading the tape, what means watch the naked chart. Its just information, you can add indicators to it, or whatever you want, all we traders need is the best possible information to predict the future odds.
I dont see it as a art, its sience pur sience.
The only art i know is to create trading strategies, but only in that sense, when you try to test what else could work and you must backtest it with statistic, what is then sience again.
The reason why price moves, doesnt matter, only important is that it moves, which direction doesnt matter also.
Important is only that you know when a new move starts and ends - or in other words, you need to know the odds %.
Give me 90% that price will move down to this or that point in the next 1 to 4 days, and i will go short here right now - thats how i trade. But if the odds change, interpreted by some mystical signals i have created over the years, i will close the position.
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P.S.: All this discussions about what is better or what really works, price action or technical analysis or whatever - is nonsense - its all just information out of price - price is all what counts. Ah, not quite correct, price moves = last historical prices and current price, thats at least what you need. Only the current bid and ask, does not help you anything, you need at least a chart.
or
you must trade based on fundamentals and try to be lucky, like warren buffet.
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Best,
HTR
:eek:
