Quote from dmo:
To me a better question is how would you trade options without a pricing model and greeks?
First, you want to know whether the options you are considering are cheap or expensive historically speaking. Are they as cheap as they've ever been? Are they as expensive as they've ever been? Are they near the middle of their historic range?
Now, the only way to evaluate the cheapness or expensiveness of an option is by looking at its implied volatility. And for that you need a pricing model.
You'll want to look at the cheapness or expensiveness of different months to see how those correspond to historic norms and ranges. Is the spread between the front month and second month closer than usual? Wider apart than usual? As wide apart as it's ever been?
You'll want to look at the cheapness or expensiveness of the different strikes in relation to one another - the skew. Let's say the OTM calls are trading at a higher IV - which is to say they are more expensive - than the OTM puts. Is that the way they normally trade? Or is that an anomaly since the OTM puts usually are more expensive than the OTM calls? How do those relate to the ATMs? How does that compare to their historically normal relationship?
If you find an anomaly - some IV relationship that differs from historical norms - you may want to make a play based on the assumption that historical norms will reassert themselves. But in order to do that intelligently, you have to understand how options behave. You have to know that as IV rises, the options with more time remaining will rise in price faster than options with less time remaining (vega). You have to know that options with less time remaining will decay faster than options with more time remaining (theta). If you are long and/or short options at different strikes, you may not know at a glance whether you make money or lose money as the underlying rises, so you need to calculate the delta. As the option moves, you'll want to know whether the delta changes in the direction you want it to change (positive gamma) or in the direction you DON'T want it to change (negative gamma) - and how much it changes.
If all you want to do is play the direction of a stock or futures contract, then I would not bother with options. Options add a few dimensions to the game, and without a pricing model and a thorough understanding of greeks, you are flying blind.