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Please judge my performance
- Thread starter feng456
- Start date
Particularly as we discuss futures trading, the only thing that really matters is return on risk. This is because of the potential leverage involved.
If you made 10% with a max open DD of 1% (not notional, I mean the account) for the year, then I would say you are doing very very well. Want to make 100%? Just lever up if you dare.
If you made 10% and saw a 30% max open DD, then you're not quite there yet.
Over the long run, it is highly likely that even if you are quite good, your MAR is probably going to get down to around 1. It is really hard to have a MAR above 1-1.5 for very long periods of time (decades, for instance). You would be well served to keep this in mind when setting your leverage level...
If you made 10% with a max open DD of 1% (not notional, I mean the account) for the year, then I would say you are doing very very well. Want to make 100%? Just lever up if you dare.
If you made 10% and saw a 30% max open DD, then you're not quite there yet.
Over the long run, it is highly likely that even if you are quite good, your MAR is probably going to get down to around 1. It is really hard to have a MAR above 1-1.5 for very long periods of time (decades, for instance). You would be well served to keep this in mind when setting your leverage level...
Quote from feng456:
meaning what exactly? are you saying i'm bullshiting because my numbers were too high? or because they would laugh at my shitty results and ET is for losers like me?
You've not run into any significant major obstacle(s) since you started 3 years ago - you've had 2 straight winning years.
That's WAVE 1 up.
Expect Wave 2 down to get underway anytime this, your 3rd year. It will and should almost kill you.
This is required albeit unbeknownst to you on a conscious level.
Just as you are about to give up trading for good and you might languish in this state for months, your turmoil will bottom.
Then you will take off northbound on Wave 3 and become a highly successful trader.
Based on what you have said, this is what I see for you.
Keep it up and best of luck.
When you are down and out, remember this - light at the end of the tunnel is aborning.
Okay Feng, here's what you do. Go through your trading record and compare your BIGGEST loss to your AVERAGE win. If it's even close to 1:1, you have some risk management work to do. After that, realize that this below is probably the best advice you'll get from this thread.
Quote from NoDoji:
Here's how to judge your performance:
You've been consistently profitable over two years of trading.
Did you attain this profitability by following a specific trading plan (business plan) with very few rule violations and is your profitability in line with the results your business plan predicted? If so, then your performance is excellent and you can comfortably size up and increase your returns.
Did you attain this profitability by using leverage itself as an edge (averaging down until positions eventually became profitable), or by cheating (violating your rules, but somehow coming out OK in the end)? If so, then your risk of ruin is high despite your positive results so far.
Are the returns over these two years significantly less than your trading plan predicted? If so, then either your trading plan cannot withstand varying market conditions or your ability to follow it is poor.
Only you can judge your performance.