Please help, I need advice

C

crayon851

Hey, I appreciate and thank all who have advice to offer.

so my problem is this:

I can pick stocks that go up. no problem. We are in a bull market, so that might be the reason. I've had GRPN, BBRY, TZA swings, TD, BBD.B etc. The problem is, whenever I decide to buy, the stock always tends to drop even further before going up. When I decide to sell, the stock keeps going up further.

Do you guys have any suggestions on remedying this problem?
 
crayon851 said:
Hey, I appreciate and thank all who have advice to offer.

so my problem is this:

I can pick stocks that go up. no problem. We are in a bull market, so that might be the reason. I've had GRPN, BBRY, TZA swings, TD, BBD.B etc. The problem is, whenever I decide to buy, the stock always tends to drop even further before going up. When I decide to sell, the stock keeps going up further.

Do you guys have any suggestions on remedying this problem?
More...

Commandment # 2

Thou shalt not covet thy hindsight trade.
 
crayon851 said:
I can pick stocks that go up. no problem. We are in a bull market, so that might be the reason. I've had GRPN, BBRY, TZA swings, TD, BBD.B etc. The problem is, whenever I decide to buy, the stock always tends to drop even further before going up. When I decide to sell, the stock keeps going up further.
More...

Timing. Isn't this a problem we all have, especially when starting out? By no means am I where I want to be, but I can attribute improvements in performance, including timing entries and exits to post trade analysis. Trying to understand your trading through any other means would be a less effective route to improvement, IMO.

My advice is to analyze a significant sample of your trades and identify relevant variables which commonly occur across your losers (or 'droppers' or 'early exiters') significantly more than your winners. Form a hypothesis and verify it by testing on a different sample.
 
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How are you selecting stocks to buy?

Positive trends, especially strong ones, produce a strong impulse to buy. And, it is at that moment you experience pullbacks.

Don't chase trends. Anticipate them. Size properly so that random noise will not be construed as "always tends to drop further before going up".
 
thanks for all your replies,

knwoing my luck, everythung i sold will continue to go up. everything i biught will drop.

I have tried analyzing it, for instance, id take the lowest support level and then buy off that if it ever hit there if it looks like theres been a significant pull back or if its whipsawing. TZA example, 13.24ish is its low support, but i anticipated that it wouldnt hit there, so i bought above at the 13.50 support line, then it dropped further.

in terms of selling, i pick a set % price point that i thinknis a good exit. then the stock usually rockets up. MAL for example, i bought that on a fundamental basis for 1.85. sold at 2.40. now its at $13.

I just sold TD for a 4% return in about a month and a half. my plan was that id sell if i collected the annual dividend amount and then look for re-entry. bought at 47ish sold at 49ish. now i feel like its going to hit $55.

So how do you anticipate trends? what helps you?

everything imo is so high right now im afraid to buy also.

i feel like bbry will be at $15 by second or third ER, but im too chicken to buy.


my refined strategy is to sell bull put spreads against dividend blue chip stocks id like to own on a MTM basis. buy 0.25 std debit call spreads a few days before earnings, possible hedged with a put spread as well.

putspreads to collect 10-15 per 50 risk. and debit spreads to get 30-45 per 100 gain.
 
i pick brands i know normally and stick within that. im starting to venture out into looking at ipos. i guess up till now haveny really had a set strategy, but id make 5-10% off like 80% of my trades. then youd have bad picks like IAG and AMD which kill most of the gains.

how do you anticipate them? lately ive also been going in at 10 shares at a time, sometimes 1. my commissions are low enough that i can do this.

i bought USO,IAG and TZA, but they just keep dropping blowing past resistance levels that i set and so forth. not trying to catch a bottom, but theres usually an additional 5-10% drop beyond well known support levels ove set.

when i dont make the buy, the stock also goes up. grpn for example and bbry. i had buy ratings.on them at least 15-20% from where they are now, but i got chicken.



xandman said:
How are you selecting stocks to buy?

Positive trends, especially strong ones, produce a strong impulse to buy. And, it is at that moment you experience pullbacks.

Don't chase trends. Anticipate them. Size properly so that random noise will not be construed as "always tends to drop further before going up".
More...
 
I would recommend you make a journal of your trades. In fact, I recommend 2 journals.

1 for your fundamental outlook.

1 for each of your trades and rational.

Find the ones that work for you and lever up. It's back of the napkin research.
 
repl
xandman said:
I would recommend you make a journal of your trades. In fact, I recommend 2 journals.

1 for your fundamental outlook.

1 for each of your trades and rational.

Find the ones that work for you and lever up. It's back of the napkin research.
More...
reply okay i jist recently started doing that. thanks!
 
xandman said:
I would recommend you make a journal of your trades. In fact, I recommend 2 journals.

1 for your fundamental outlook.

1 for each of your trades and rational.

Find the ones that work for you and lever up. It's back of the napkin research.
More...
and i was right, td went up even higher today... wtff
 
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