Please critique my first trade idea

[vanzandt]

I'm not sure where you're getting this number. I doubt such a high % is even possible given to how the mechanics of stock borrowing for shorting works.

https://fintel.io/ss/us/jmia

Also this dude whose livelihood is putting out correct short data says it's only 6.26% of the float.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1137029533050294272

That's a valid concern provided it's 67% of float but it doesn't seem to be.



Solid advice, thank you.

Well, lol... I hate to rain on his parade... but the Igor cat on Twitter is using the 4.9M shares short and comparing it to the "shares outstanding" (72M). There's a big difference between the float and the shares outstanding. The float, the stock available to be traded by the public, on this stock is 6.75M shares. Ie, 67% of the float is short. Thats the metric one needs to consider when contemplating a possible short squeeze. One would think Igor would know that. Makes me go "hmmm" actually. Like what's his game?

That other link you posted (fintel) was for the day's short volume. That has nothing to do with the short interest. And that daily metric is really not a reliable indicator of things anyway. Actual short interest is filed bi-monthly... the day to day volume gets way convoluted as to whats really going on behind the scenes in how that number is generated. Too long to explain, just trust me on that lol.

Here ya go.... use this. 10th column over on the top.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JMIA

There's your short data.

 

[lentus]

Well, lol... I hate to rain on his parade... but the Igor cat on Twitter is using the 4.9M shares short and comparing it to the "shares outstanding" (72M). There's a big difference between the float and the shares outstanding. The float, the stock available to be traded by the public, on this stock is 6.75M shares. Ie, 67% of the float is short. Thats the metric one needs to consider when contemplating a possible short squeeze. One would think Igor would know that. Makes me go "hmmm" actually. Like what's his game?

That other link you posted (fintel) was for the day's short volume. That has nothing to do with the short interest. And that daily metric is really not a reliable indicator of things anyway. Actual short interest is filed bi-monthly... the day to day volume gets way convoluted as to whats really going on behind the scenes in how that number is generated. Too long to explain, just trust me on that lol.

Here ya go.... use this. 10th column over on the top.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JMIA

There's your short data.

Ihor specifically says % of float. I really doubt that he's wrong. Like I said, he's an expert on shortselling data. He supplies short data to NASDAQ/Bloomberg/Reuters/etc

https://shortsight.com/about/

Screwing this up in a public tweet would be pretty bad for him.

Here the float is 62.7M and outstanding is 78.4M

https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nyse-jumia-technologies-ads-jmia.htm

Here the float is 20.25M

https://iextrading.com/apps/stocks/JMIA

Perhaps certain data source have the wrong float numbers. I believe the float number used by your source is likely incorrect.

 

[Overnight]

...
Screwing this up in a public tweet would be pretty bad for him.
...

As if that has never happened to anyone else on the Internet, ever, in the history of forever.

No, Mr. A tweeted it, so he MUST be 100% correct on what he spouted after some shivas and a cigar, and Mr. B who counters the argument in a tweet is WRONG WRONG WRONG!

Careers will be totally destroyed if the message is wrong THIS ONE TIME.

Get a grip, lentus.

 

[vanzandt]

Ihor specifically says % of float. I really doubt that he's wrong. Like I said, he's an expert on shortselling data. He supplies short data to NASDAQ/Bloomberg/Reuters/etc

https://shortsight.com/about/

Screwing this up in a public tweet would be pretty bad for him.

Here the float is 62.7M and outstanding is 78.4M

https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nyse-jumia-technologies-ads-jmia.htm

Here the float is 20.25M

https://iextrading.com/apps/stocks/JMIA

Perhaps certain data source have the wrong float numbers. I believe the float number used by your source is likely incorrect.

Ihor specifically says % of float. I really doubt that he's wrong. Like I said, he's an expert on shortselling data. He supplies short data to NASDAQ/Bloomberg/Reuters/etc

https://shortsight.com/about/

Screwing this up in a public tweet would be pretty bad for him.

Here the float is 62.7M and outstanding is 78.4M

https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nyse-jumia-technologies-ads-jmia.htm

Here the float is 20.25M

https://iextrading.com/apps/stocks/JMIA

Perhaps certain data source have the wrong float numbers. I believe the float number used by your source is likely incorrect.

Ok... since I like this stuff, I went ahead and went down the rabbit hole you've opened to see what's really up so we can put this to rest.

That 6.75M float number on Finviz is in fact incorrect. Someone made a mistake. Its off by a factor of 2. They were confused since each ADR share that is tradeable... represents 2 shares of the ordinary stock.

So all these web links aside... lets go straight to the source.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/filing.ashx?filingid=13359030#D650749D424B4_HTM_ROM650749_23

13.5M shares were offered during the IPO.

As you can see.... 13.5M of the ADR's (they call them ADS's) were all that was offered.
Scroll down to page 181.

"Upon completion of this offering, the closing of the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares, we will have 13,500,000 ADSs outstanding, representing approximately 17.7% of our outstanding ordinary shares or, if the underwriters exercise in full their option to buy additional ADSs, 15,525,000 ADSs outstanding representing approximately 19.8% of our outstanding ordinary shares. All of the ADSs sold in this offering will be freely transferable by persons other than by our “affiliates” without restriction or further registration under the Securities Act. Sales of substantial amounts of our ordinary shares or ADSs in the public market could adversely affect prevailing market prices of our ADSs.

Prior to this offering, there has been no public market for our ADSs or our ordinary shares in the United States, and although we have been approved to list the ADSs on the NYSE, we cannot assure you that a regular trading market for the ADSs will develop. We do not intend to list our ordinary shares on a trading market in the United States."

Now in absence of any subsequent filing with the SEC, which there has not been as of today... this is pretty much the float. 15.525M

As you can also see... go to page 13


Ordinary shares to be outstanding immediately after this offering, the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares
152,766,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 76,383,247 ADSs) assuming no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs; or, 156,816,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 78,408,247 ADSs) assuming full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs.

So... 76.3M to 78.4M is the total # of shares outstanding.

As of June 14th, the latest report of open short interest as released by the NYSE... there were 5.87M shares sold short. The WSJ figure is accurate.

https://quotes.wsj.com/JMIA

So 5.87 divided by 15.525 is 38%.
Thats your short interest, or pretty damn close.

If someone is inclined to short it today, the current borrow rate is about 26%. It was as high as 60% in early June.

So... Regarding Igor and his Tweet... did you notice in that thread several people called him out on his numbers (just like I did). He made no effort to explain himself nor did he admit his mistake. So whatever. But no stock that has only a 6.26% open short interest sports a 42.37% borrow rate. An "expert" would know that. Maybe Igor was hitting the sauce that day.

 

[NQurious]

Ok... since I like this stuff, I went ahead and went down the rabbit hole you've opened to see what's really up so we can put this to rest.

VZ be like ...

 

[lentus]

Ok... since I like this stuff, I went ahead and went down the rabbit hole you've opened to see what's really up so we can put this to rest.

That 6.75M float number on Finviz is in fact incorrect. Someone made a mistake. Its off by a factor of 2. They were confused since each ADR share that is tradeable... represents 2 shares of the ordinary stock.

So all these web links aside... lets go straight to the source.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/filing.ashx?filingid=13359030#D650749D424B4_HTM_ROM650749_23

13.5M shares were offered during the IPO.

As you can see.... 13.5M of the ADR's (they call them ADS's) were all that was offered.
Scroll down to page 181.

"Upon completion of this offering, the closing of the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares, we will have 13,500,000 ADSs outstanding, representing approximately 17.7% of our outstanding ordinary shares or, if the underwriters exercise in full their option to buy additional ADSs, 15,525,000 ADSs outstanding representing approximately 19.8% of our outstanding ordinary shares. All of the ADSs sold in this offering will be freely transferable by persons other than by our “affiliates” without restriction or further registration under the Securities Act. Sales of substantial amounts of our ordinary shares or ADSs in the public market could adversely affect prevailing market prices of our ADSs.

Prior to this offering, there has been no public market for our ADSs or our ordinary shares in the United States, and although we have been approved to list the ADSs on the NYSE, we cannot assure you that a regular trading market for the ADSs will develop. We do not intend to list our ordinary shares on a trading market in the United States."

Now in absence of any subsequent filing with the SEC, which there has not been as of today... this is pretty much the float. 15.525M

As you can also see... go to page 13


Ordinary shares to be outstanding immediately after this offering, the Concurrent Private Placement and the issuance of the Anti-Dilution Shares
152,766,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 76,383,247 ADSs) assuming no exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs; or, 156,816,494 ordinary shares (corresponding to 78,408,247 ADSs) assuming full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional ADSs.

So... 76.3M to 78.4M is the total # of shares outstanding.

As of June 14th, the latest report of open short interest as released by the NYSE... there were 5.87M shares sold short. The WSJ figure is accurate.

https://quotes.wsj.com/JMIA

So 5.87 divided by 15.525 is 38%.
Thats your short interest, or pretty damn close.

If someone is inclined to short it today, the current borrow rate is about 26%. It was as high as 60% in early June.

So... Regarding Igor and his Tweet... did you notice in that thread several people called him out on his numbers (just like I did). He made no effort to explain himself nor did he admit his mistake. So whatever. But no stock that has only a 6.26% open short interest sports a 42.37% borrow rate. An "expert" would know that. Maybe Igor was hitting the sauce that day.

This seems right. Surprised Ihor was so wrong and disappointed he won't address the concerns. Maybe he was hitting the Wall Street sauce that day lol.

Where did you get the borrow rates?

 

[lentus]

Also it seems JMIA should be included in his latest "most expensive borrows" list he just released but because he thinks the float is over 70M it's not lol.

https://shortsight.com/most-expensive-u-s-stock-borrows-beyond-meat/

 

[murray t turtle]

Since it is a paper trade, I will comment, but what follows is my opinion and you are free to block me at will.

I read your write up and I have no idea what the competing theses or "narratives" are to which you refer. I'm a technical trader, and right now, based on the daily, I'd be long expecting it to trade in the high 40's again before it ever trades below 18. Anything can happen, but if someone told me that I had to take a position and stick with it for a month or my family would die, I'd be long.

Opening day low 18.26 tested to 18.13 abut four weeks after issue (double bottom) followed by higher low trend reversal (18.80 about a week after DB) ... volume high during initial sessions, with volume pulling back during the pullback. Volume increased again at the low (the underwriters are obviously willing to support this one).

I may be wrong, but if you are going to base your trades off of fundamental theses, you're doing it the hard way. Grab yourself a copy of William O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks, and be bullish on America, imo.

Read up a bit on Bill Ackman's brilliant HLF short from about 2012 through sometime last year. Thesis shmesis. There are much easier ways to make money in stocks, imo.

%%
Good post. Even an accurate data provider like William O'Neil's , investors.com, makes data mistakes -but not many of them.

 

[lentus]

vanzandt?

 

[lentus]

JMIA critical support at IPO price breaking on increasing volume..

VFF seemed like going my way but now went back up to my entry point in a weird way. Since this is a fundamental play with technical timing. I'm holding for a stop or a profit target. No breakevens, moving stops, etc.