I have more losers than winners - as a matter of fact my losers double my winners but I still come out profitable. If only I could reduce my losers .. [/QUOTE]
You have a very long way before you.
Good journey and never give up.
bye
Please Comment On My New Strategy
- Thread starter carltonp
- Start date
You have a very long way before you.
Good journey and never give up.
bye
While it's very impressive he's built this strategy analytic platform in Excel, there are other more capable platforms out there. Multicharts for one, Tradestation for another.
They allow for rapid strategy performance measurement and evaluation.
Since the original poster is not showing any stats or charts, etc.....he either does not have them or he does not want to publicize them.
Finally, I have to agree that unless he has super-low commissions, any edge this strat may have is likely to be erased by commissions or slippage.
They allow for rapid strategy performance measurement and evaluation.
Since the original poster is not showing any stats or charts, etc.....he either does not have them or he does not want to publicize them.
Finally, I have to agree that unless he has super-low commissions, any edge this strat may have is likely to be erased by commissions or slippage.
Thanks for responding.
Not sure what stats you would like to see. As I mentioned I don't really use charts. I may have a chart on my screen just to give me an indication how far the price is from a pivot point, but thats about it. All analysis is done in the way I described.
I really was after a critique of the system and if someone could tell if there was any value in the way I use the stagnant time intervals (four seconds) in which to trade.
hi, dear carltonp,
i dont think the stagnation of 4sec have any value, since you only compare your two trade products together in that situation. (if i ve understood you correct ?)
although some procucts move in similar ways, the dont move exactly in the same behaviour.
im sorry, i cant help you more. I dont really understand your system. it seems to complicated to me.
You use pivotpoints for your targets ?? so also for entrys ???
Maybe you should focus more on this pricelevels ??
good luck and never give up
Thanks for responding and encouraging words mate.
I knew the system might come across complicated and I wish I could explain it in more layman terms, because I think people won't comment because they don't understand it, which is a shame because I would love more comments.
However, you have commented on the most important part of the system - the stagnation of 4 seconds.
I going to explain what I'm trying to achieve with the 4 second stagnation.
Once I've decided we're in the middle of either a pullback/reversal on 2 minute interval, as identified by Excel spreadsheet (not chart) my entry is determined by what happens after the price of YM has sat there for 4 seconds or more without changing in price. So, lets say I've identified a pullback, the price is now at 11000 and it sits there for 4 seconds. After 4 seconds the price moves to say 11005 and sits there for another 4 seconds, after that it moves to 11008, my belief is something has happened during those intervals where the price didn't move, I'm just not experienced enough to understand what the professionals are typically during at those periods? Are the accumulating/distributing? Waiting to see where the newbies are going to take the price? I just don't know.
I would love to hear what experienced traders think what is typically happening during those times.
It has been suggested that I study 'Time and Sales' for months and look for recurring patterns.
So, I think you may have misunderstood me, which probably means other traders have misundertsood what I'm trying to do. Hopefully, this explanation will get me some more constructive feedback from traders here.
BTW, I would like to point out that I'm still paper trading this theory and what it has revealed to me is that I can double the amount of losers as winners and still come out profitable. This is achieved by simply getting out if the price doesn't go in my direction after the four second interval.
Looking forward to hearing your comments.
Cheers
OK ET members,
It is clear to me that a number of you have misunderstood what I'm trying to achieve with my system. As a result, I posted the same thread, word-for-word on a rival forum and they too didn't fully understand what my goal was.
Therefore, I have failed in making myself clear.
Having admitted my failure there was one guy who totally got it. This is how he replied:
"What is statistically significant about 3 second pauses? Or pauses at all? Have you measured the significance? Is there a significant probability increase only if you have OBV/Priced in trend? Or in counter trend?
Are you trading in line with OBV/Price or against?
It sounds like you're using OBV/Price composite (NDX) as your primary indicator. But something to do with YM pauses as a trigger. That doesn't seem very deterministic.
I like your OBV/Price composite concept, but would want a couple of price action confirmations on the YM (not just pauses and toggles) to trigger trades."
That is it ladies and gentlemen, he's got it. This is what I need help with.
So, in order to more feedback I thought I would add a real sample. Here it is.
Yesterday, 09/08/11 the price of YM paused for 6 seconds at 11:12:14 to 11:12:20 EST at 11455.
Now, it has been suggested that if I really want to know what was going on during those six seconds I should study the 'Time and Sales' at that time. It just so happens I recorded the Time and Sales at that time. I have attached what happened.
I might submit another thread because the question I'm about to ask might confuse the issue, but I think its related.
So, the question is, can someone adept at reading the tape tell me what they think was going on according to the attached snapshot of T&S during the pause?
That's it folks.
If you can answer that question you may have answered everything I need to know about my system - whether its crap, has merit or otherwise.
If you're able to provide decent feedback on this snapshot I will send another snapshot where the price paused at 5 seconds, 8 seconds. If there are members willing to share constructive feedback I will happily share my Excel spreadsheet with all the formulas (that's if you're interested in it)
To assist you, all pauses happen after a pullback.
Wow, my posts are really long.....
Cheers
P.S.
I haven't checked my grammar, so please forgive any grammatical errors
It is clear to me that a number of you have misunderstood what I'm trying to achieve with my system. As a result, I posted the same thread, word-for-word on a rival forum and they too didn't fully understand what my goal was.
Therefore, I have failed in making myself clear.
Having admitted my failure there was one guy who totally got it. This is how he replied:
"What is statistically significant about 3 second pauses? Or pauses at all? Have you measured the significance? Is there a significant probability increase only if you have OBV/Priced in trend? Or in counter trend?
Are you trading in line with OBV/Price or against?
It sounds like you're using OBV/Price composite (NDX) as your primary indicator. But something to do with YM pauses as a trigger. That doesn't seem very deterministic.
I like your OBV/Price composite concept, but would want a couple of price action confirmations on the YM (not just pauses and toggles) to trigger trades."
That is it ladies and gentlemen, he's got it. This is what I need help with.
So, in order to more feedback I thought I would add a real sample. Here it is.
Yesterday, 09/08/11 the price of YM paused for 6 seconds at 11:12:14 to 11:12:20 EST at 11455.
Now, it has been suggested that if I really want to know what was going on during those six seconds I should study the 'Time and Sales' at that time. It just so happens I recorded the Time and Sales at that time. I have attached what happened.
I might submit another thread because the question I'm about to ask might confuse the issue, but I think its related.
So, the question is, can someone adept at reading the tape tell me what they think was going on according to the attached snapshot of T&S during the pause?
That's it folks.
If you can answer that question you may have answered everything I need to know about my system - whether its crap, has merit or otherwise.
If you're able to provide decent feedback on this snapshot I will send another snapshot where the price paused at 5 seconds, 8 seconds. If there are members willing to share constructive feedback I will happily share my Excel spreadsheet with all the formulas (that's if you're interested in it)
To assist you, all pauses happen after a pullback.
Wow, my posts are really long.....
Cheers
P.S.
I haven't checked my grammar, so please forgive any grammatical errors
The MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE HERE:
What is the PREMISE ?
What aspect of price movement and market movement and market psychology are you trying to exploit ?
If you can't answer that, this is a random, roll-the-dice system.
There are many like it.
Good ones are:
Breakouts .....take advantage of unusual events and short covering...
Reversion-to-Mean ....takes advantage of extreme, extended markets...
etc, etc.
What is the PREMISE ?
What aspect of price movement and market movement and market psychology are you trying to exploit ?
If you can't answer that, this is a random, roll-the-dice system.
There are many like it.
Good ones are:
Breakouts .....take advantage of unusual events and short covering...
Reversion-to-Mean ....takes advantage of extreme, extended markets...
etc, etc.