Playing the Saddam Gap

Quote from Pabst:



Seems like news always follows the least path of resistance in prices. Just when you think it's safe to fade.....bam. I went home ultra long on 9/10 trying to pick a bottom. Ugh! But unlike 3000 others, at least I got to live and talk about it. Can't put a price on that.
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Pabst, check out the fairly substantial gaps down on the three days preceding that fateful Monday. Certain foreigners dumping on the open I'm certain of it... the market started diving in late August, and it was an outlier downtrend without any "known" catalyst, e.g., the Asian financial crisis.
 
Quote from Kicking:

Are people stupid or what? They got Saddam so Bush is a hero now, a moron no longer. And the market is going to the moon . Let me laugh. I read this NYT article in which political analysts all seem to agree this is huge for Bush and Dems are toast . What?

So you start a war based on lies and dubious intelligence, have hundreds of your own people and thousands of Iraqis killed, fail for months to capture the tyrant you came to overthrow and then when finally you find the powerless ex- dictator hidden for months in a basement in a bum like-condition with no communication devices whatsoever and no guerillas to defend him, you declare victory! ? And everybody says Amen, we won the war. Let's buy stocks.

Give me a f*cking break.
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Good points... Another example that markets aren't rational. They are emotional and crowd-driven.
 
Quote from Kicking:

Are people stupid or what? They got Saddam so Bush is a hero now, a moron no longer. And the market is going to the moon . Let me laugh. I read this NYT article in which political analysts all seem to agree this is huge for Bush and Dems are toast . What?

So you start a war based on lies and dubious intelligence, have hundreds of your own people and thousands of Iraqis killed, fail for months to capture the tyrant you came to overthrow and then when finally you find the powerless ex- dictator hidden for months in a basement in a bum like-condition with no communication devices whatsoever and no guerillas to defend him, you declare victory! ? And everybody says Amen, we won the war. Let's buy stocks.

Give me a f*cking break. It will soon become clear that Saddam was and is irrelevant to the situation in Iraq. Worse, what if he admits to not having sought to develop WMD?
As for what the market is going to do, I don't know but I would not load up on stocks on Monday. Too many people telling you it's a sure bet...
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Dude, that's what makes trading and accept tomorrow's prices as an early Christmas present. You know what to do.
 
Quote from spyderman:

Say what you want about the above post....he didn't look like a man in charge.
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No, but he was definitely a man on the run. They all end up looking like hermits.
 
Quote from Kicking:

Are people stupid or what? They got Saddam so Bush is a hero now, a moron no longer. And the market is going to the moon . Let me laugh. I read this NYT article in which political analysts all seem to agree this is huge for Bush and Dems are toast . What?

So you start a war based on lies and dubious intelligence, have hundreds of your own people and thousands of Iraqis killed, fail for months to capture the tyrant you came to overthrow and then when finally you find the powerless ex- dictator hidden for months in a basement in a bum like-condition with no communication devices whatsoever and no guerillas to defend him, you declare victory! ? And everybody says Amen, we won the war. Let's buy stocks.

Give me a f*cking break. It will soon become clear that Saddam was and is irrelevant to the situation in Iraq. Worse, what if he admits to not having sought to develop WMD?
As for what the market is going to do, I don't know but I would not load up on stocks on Monday. Too many people telling you it's a sure bet...
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How retarded... a market likely to be up 4% 'cause we find the arabic Santa Claus hiding in a hole, nervously fiddling with his beard... Christ, I didn't see so much as a Sat dish & TiVO in that hole, let alone a command and control center.

arb.
 
Opening gaps (based on Globex BID/ASK) appear:

NQ +25.5 (1445)
ES +9 (1083.00)

I'll guess that NQ can usually eke out +30 on a rally, ES, +12. Thoughts?

My bet - retrace should only be about %50, so go long at:

NQ 1431 (+13)
ES 1078.5 (+4.5)

15 mins till Globex opens (right?). I don't trade the overnight jungle, but am curious here.
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Yes that prediction by who (R****) looks way off now...Hey maybe we can hit 1100 now by the end of 2003 as I stated in his thread! :eek:

Let Freedom Ring!

Chris
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By tommorrow...Chris..and I said 1150 in an April thread..but I am a modest guy!

Best,
David
 
First I will be honest and admit that I am 100% short right now. The question I have to ask myself is if I were flat would I want to go long? If I did, I would keep a pretty tight leash on the longs. I'm sure alot of the fund managers and institutions are glad to be long but now what? They might have been planning on a small tame run up until Jan 04. This Saddam thing is a problem for them. If we move up heavily alot of sellers could start locking in profit and cut this rally off right now. I will just react, maybe play some futures to to the long side but keep my finger on the sell trigger. Lick my wounds if I necessary.

I would have liked to see the look on my face this morning when my wife came into the room and said " I have good news honey... they caught saddam" eeeek .. don't kid about something like that I thought . This was not part of my trading plan for December . LOL

I am glad we caught him!!

short, Long or flat...

May the trading gods be with us all!!

:) :eek: :)
 
Market open tonight on the ES looked like a normal market opening during the day. Gap gets faded. Honestly, I thought there might be a higher open. I guess we'll have to wait until morning to see if the gap expands....

I was short going into the session (on a swing trade), but stops did not get hit. I expected them to get blown out...
 
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