Place your bets! Quiz #3

[axeman]

Results
-------------------------
DTK +1.50 Wooo hoo!!!
AllenCook +0.65
miniTrdr +0.53
Dantheman +0.50
kokosij +0.31
TriPack -0.02
ElCubano -0.02
QQQBALL -0.02
Trajan -0.02
Corallus -0.02
Gordon Gekko -0.02
Sanjuro -0.02
wdbaker -0.02
uptik2000 -0.15
Peri -0.16
Amkeer -0.16
inandlong -0.22


Sorry for the delay.... im swamped.

This one was interesting.
Wanted to see if anyone would give that pullback
enough breathing room to allow the strong downtrend
room to work. 5 guys did.
peace

axeman



Details
--------------------------

Dantheman
49.53 STOP
48.53 TARGET
+0.50

inandlong
Target 48.60
Stop High of this bar plus +.10
-0.22

Peri
target 48.49
stop 49.19
-0.16

DTK
Stop 50.03
Target 47.53
+1.50


miniTrdr
stop at 49.75
first target 48.50 -
if it doesnt break, look to take profits or breakeven
if it breaks below 48.40 move stop to 48.50
next target 48.10
stopped out at 48.50
+0.53

uptik2000
stop 49.18
tgt..48.60
-0.15

kokosij
stop - 48.50
exit position end of day
+0.31

AllenCook
Initial stop: 49.55 (if it penetrates the 50MA)
For exit: If it doesn't stop out soon,
place a trailing stop w/+0.20
stopped out at 48.38
+0.65


Amkeer
Stop at 49.19
target 48.54
-0.16

TriPack
-0.02

ElCubano
-0.02

QQQBALL
-0.02

Trajan
-0.02

Corallus
-0.02

Gordon Gekko
-0.02

Sanjuro
-0.02

wdbaker
-0.02

 

[Dantheman]

here's my reasoning for staying in the short trade...

entry short @ 49.03 OK (same deal as before i'm only willing to risk 50 bucks on each trade so that necessitates a .50 or less stop.)

It just so happens that what I see is:
The last major move I saw was from 50.50 to 48.50....it's what my eyes gravitated to first and it was my initial impression that this up-move was only going to be a retracement. You could make an argument that the major move was from 51.00 down to 48.50. But. that is not what I saw.

Well .50 from entry would put my stop @ 49.53 (which is just about 50% retracement of the move down that I saw.)
Meaning that only if it moved past that point would my initial reasoning be invalidated (in my mind).

I also believed it could go down for a retest of 48.50.

As it turns out i could have been more generous with my profit target but...i have a tendancy to undershoot my profits.

 

[DTK]

Well...

I used the 200 MA on the lower chart which also corresponds the to the base that the bear trap was set up on the day before, that gave me a possible loss of 1 (I chose 50.03 because that would have led to a round number loss of 1 {I didn't include comms.}).

The target was based on the move from the bear trap high of around 50.50 and the low that was achieved on the move of around 48.50 which was a 2 dollar move. I figured that the low from 2 days ago would provide the first level of resistance and then the 49.75 - 50.00 area would provide the second level of resistance.

I figured that I would let it go to the first candle of 2 days ago at 49.50 and then let it make another similar 2 dollar move down to 47.53 (once again using the .03 for a nice round profit). Good thing I left it some slack. I don't think it hit 47.03.

Over-analysis? Probably.
Was it what was going through my head when I made my decision? Yes.
Did I disregard the affect of the futures on the stock? Yeah.


Oops... 9:30!!!

Quote from DTK:

I'm guessing that from the time scale that there is a whole day for this to pan out...

... with that in mind, let me go for a little 1.5:1 (reward / risk) action.

Stop 50.03
Target 47.53

Quote from inandlong:

LOL! Prescott that's funny!

The thread will remain open until Thursday morning for post-trade comments. As Dan did, why you did what you did would be great to read about, These types of comments will remain in the archived thread.

Thanks everyone.

 

[miniTrdr]

thanks axeman - nice quiz

entry looked a little low compared to 200ma but at an eyed in trendline of highs - since last time it hit 200ma it broke by a some cents put stop above current 200ma by a couple more cents. exit sucked - think i mistype exit stop info but it was to tight.

 

[axeman]

When you set your next resistence level to 48.50,
you got stopped out, exactly to the penny.

Should have given it a little more breathing room
above 48.50, if that was going to be your
new stop.

But what do I know



peace

axeman

Quote from miniTrdr:

thanks axeman - nice quiz

entry looked a little low compared to 200ma but at an eyed in trendline of highs - since last time it hit 200ma it broke by a some cents put stop above current 200ma by a couple more cents. exit sucked - think i mistype exit stop info but it was to tight.