Place your bets - QUIZ 2

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axeman

Continued from thread:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=10909

All bets will be 100 shares for simplicity, with 2 cent
round trip commish, IB style. Zero slippage.
No partials.
For trailing stops - will check to see if STOP is hit BEFORE target.
When neither target or stop is it, you get the closing price of the day.

Here is quiz #2

You are currently SHORT on the last candle you
can see at 34.66.

Reply with your target/stop prices and reasoning.
You may exit immediately with a 2 cent commish loss.


peace

axeman


p.s Previous scores
------------------------------
Corallus: +94 cents
El Cubano: +74 cents
Sanjuro: +74 cents
NoviceTrader: +69 cents
macal425: +49 - by trailing stop
uptik2000: +44 cents
JPB: +29 cents
Gordon Gekko: +23 cents
axeman: 0 ( lets see who cant beat me )
wdbaker: -2 cents
inandlong: -26 cents
mike s: - 26 cents

 

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Stop 34.81
Target 34.01
Trail stop every 20c in my favor

Although the futures and the stock are both in a downtrend, I feel like I've chased the stock down too much. That's the reason for the tight stop. Still, I would like to see if I can ride the downtrend a little further. That's why I'm staying in rather than covering instantly.
 
this one is tough for me. it looks weak, but it's probably due for a bounce.. i don't wanna just take the 2 cent loss, though. you never know, it could tank.

stop 34.80
target 34
trail my stop 25 cents
 
Hmmm, support level @ 34.50 just about hit and Doji on Futures.... tough call just based candle patterns...

I'm going with the fact that lower volume to downside = move about over -

I can say I wouldn't have even entered a short position here without confirmation so stop me out - .02

IMO risk vs. reward is not there.


Paul
 
I wouldn't consider a short position in what I see. The chart I see is clearly uptrending so I short wouldn't be indicative. Actually I would be looking to enter long on a pullback.
 
Target 34.50
Stop 34.80

Looking for a quick scalp as Spoos pullback a bit, with expectation that they will retest their lows.
 
This was an interesting one.
I was really curious to see who had the biggest balls
with such a late entry :D

I would have figured more people would have used
trailing stops if they were going to "go for it" with such
a high momentum play.

The people who thought it could have enough steam
to punch through the minor support at 34.50
were rewarded.

peace

axeman




Results
-----------------------
mike s: +71
Peri: +69
Gordon Gekko: +66
prescott: +66
Babak:+66
RAY: +57
Corallus: +65
Amkeer: +56
TriPack: +55
Dantheman: +50
Sanjuro: +46
uptik2000:+31
inandlong: +16
macal425: +16
DTK: +15
JPB: +12
NoviceTrader: +11
axeman: +0
slapshot: -0.02
wdbaker: -0.02



details
-----------------------------------

NoviceTrader
Target 34.55
Stop 34.80
+11

wdbaker
Stopped out
-0.02

Corallus
Stop 34.81
Target 34.01
Trail stop every 20c in my favor
+65

TriPack
Target at 34.11 or just exit on the close.
+55

Gordon Gekko
stop 34.80
target 34
trail my stop 25 cents
+66

DTK
Target 34.51
Stop 34.76
+15

JPB
target 34.54
stop 34.78
+12

inandlong
$34.50 target
Stop is the high of this bar plus .10.
+16

slapshot
stopped out
-0.02

Babak
Stop 35.00
Target 34.00
+66

Amkeer
Target 34.10
stop at 34.83
+56

uptik2000
stop 34.80
tgt 34.35
+31

Dantheman
Stop @ 35.16
Limit @ 34.16
+50

prescott
stop would be 35.05
take profit would be 34.00
+66

Peri
stop 34.78
target 33.97
+69

macal425
Target 34.50
Stop 34.80
+16

RAY
target: 34.09
stop: 35.01
+57

Sanjuro
TARGET 34.20
STOP 35.50
+46

mike s
stop 35.10
target 33.95
+71
 

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side note: yeah that entry of 34.66 is pretty crap...but as it goes to show the importance is on the exit formost...entry comes second...

I believed it would retest lows around 34 and i also believed that if it hit 35 or above then the short bias should turn to either neutral or long (could have still been a retracement...but that wasn't the play i was looking at.) Proves once again that the trend is usually your friend

so i said, ok 100 shares...entry is 34.66...ok make it 50 bucks either way = .50 stop and .50 target.


ah and i looked at the way it had moved...down sharply in the opening, followed by NO retracement which signaled to me very weak...had there been a steep retracement (where there is just a slumping sideways @ 10:30-11:00) I would have perhaps not been so generous with my stop.
And as we can now see the eventual retrace we DID have didn't beat 50% of the day's move.

not bad, good job all. btw this is really cool. axeman are you just picking out stocks at random?

btw the e-mini chart played no role in my trade evaluation.
 
this thread is great because it is making us focus on the exit. we can't focus on the entry at all!

i'm no trading genius, but i really think this is in the right direction. i have managed to somehow lose money with just about any entry i can think of. what does that tell you? besides poor judgement, i'm probably managing my trades shitty and someone could take the opposite of my trades and make money off ANY ENTRY!!!!! now i just need to figure out how to manage my trades the opposite way......hmm
 
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