Quote from jem:
Maverick-- Nice call but I think you may be wishing. While I have never traded size in futures contracts, I have spent time on the floor and I am friends with and work with guys who have been on floors and I have sent orders to the floor. When I traded the big (spoo) contract I always and I mean every time except once, I got the worst fill that I could have possibly recieved give or take the few minutes of trading around the time of my order. I mean every time. It got to the point where I just looked for the worst price and I knew it was mine. Now was this a coincidence, I think not. It is why the floor loves paper, they like to screw it as hard as they can. I have heard all the stories.
Now while I do not trade size I think every retail trader who ever interacted with the floor knows what I am talking about, Heck it is why I became a member of an exchange. So just about everyone using the screen believes they would rather interact with the screen than a desk, a broker and a local.
Now I am sure there are exceptions to this way of thinking and I am sure there are some really great brokers, but there is almost no doubt about it, a good pit will lose to a good screen. The eminis are proof that the screen will conquer. And it seems to me but every month the mini seem to be deeper and the floor seems to be quiter. If I did not think this was the case, I am sure I would be leaving for Chicago tomorrow.
Jem,
I think you made my point. The small guy cannot trade a pit traded contract and get a good fill. That is why the mini electronic markets were created. So mom and pop america can trade everything from the sp mini's to the gold mini's on their home computer. The exchanges wanted to tap into new order flow and they got it. As far as large orders go, during the last week I made numerous calls to Chicago talking to bokers, traders, and clearing firms and everyone one of them told me that if your going to trade size you take it to the floor. Your 5000 lot in the spoos will get treated much better then your 5 lot. Like I said in my previous post, I believe they will integrate every contract electronically, but....I think they want to find a happy medium. So the only way to do that is to create similiar contracts with different specs. For example a larger spoo contract that would be traded in the pit and keep the mini's on the screen so joe daytrader can trade his 5 and 10 lots and make his 500 bucks. I think all three exchanges will integrate their technology and through ecenomies of scale make a much more cost effective product. They know they have to do this. It's not like these exchanges compete with another. They will have to unite to cut costs and to offer the most market transparency as possible.
As far as traders go, I have talked to a few myself the last week and it turns out they are still making out very nicely. Not all, but many of them. From what I hear the guys that don't make it on the floor leave and go to the screens and mumble something about how hard it is. But don't failed traders do that everywhere. I mean how many meesages are there on this board were daytraders leave and go across the street and trade somewhere else because they just can't make money at prop firm xyz so they go to prop firm abc. Yeah that must be the reason. They also told me the floor is packed and if there are any less traders there now you sure couldn't tell. The bottom line is the three exchanges in Chicago have so much at stake here that if you think they are just going to sit there and let the Eurex come in here and take their business you have got to be kidding me. Has anyone on this board thought for one second what that would do to the chicago economy. Do you have any idea howe many people are employed on those 3 exchanges and the combined income of every person on the floor. I mean look at how hard Bloomberg fought to keep the NYSE in Manhatten when they were talking about going to New Jersey. Do you have any idea what the tax implications would be for NY if that would have happened. I mean that is a scary thought. There is just too much at stake here. The politicians won't let it happen, the traders, the brokers, the board members, the clerks, the staff, the clearing firms, the list goes on. Well like I said, we'll see what happens.