Picking Tops.

There are plenty of times when I see a higher low is being made in RSI etc, but none of you take the signals. Yet, when B1S2 or you show in hindsight, you all are identifying them as long grails etc and vice versa. So why are you not taking the signals then when testing them etc in real time? Similarly, when you draw the trendlines through the peaks/valleys, I can draw a couple more etc.I am not so naive to think that that means if I can't see it then you must be cheating. What it means is that there is subjectivity involves. Its not a science but comes with experience, practise, questions and answers to know which to pick and which to not pick.


I've seen very few people especially those 'newer to indicators etc' ask the questions that goes through in my mind. It is not for lack of questions but I believe more so that they may not feel comfortable in asking. Better yet, they may not have tested it in real time and start realising that 'hey, why is this signal not taken etc although the same exact pattern was previously taken before'. Take a leaf from some other posters threads where you see many newbies willing to ask questions even if they embarrass themselves and the way the answers are given. You will then know why the newbies there are more willing to ask.


Also, I can identify when a top may be near. The problem is that at times it may be just a very shallow pullback. It took me less than a day to realise I could do that by looking at price action and volume. How many people can say that? I will however not say to others that it is 'not difficult to spot etc'. Why not, 2 things--manners and more importantly the understanding of what it takes to get there.


Quote from romik:

Billp, how you doing? You know I would have never thought that a pattern is difficult to spot, I know that it's not always straight forward to trade these patterns, but I just didn't realise that it might be difficult to spot price making higher highs when an oscillator is making lower highs. But I do realise that it might be considered complex by some people. It does not change them being present at times of many reversals, not just pullbacks.
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There are 2 reasons why I don't take every single pattern

1) If I open a trade in the morning based on the first pattern that becomes apparent I will try and stay in the trade hoping for a trend day, if not chances are I won't lose much or nothing at all. I have done a test on taking every single pattern intraday just to see what results can be generated, doesn't mean I will actually commit my money to that sort of trading;

2) There is no obligation to post on ET everything we do in real-life. There is no reason to post set-ups that have occurred, so I don't think I or B1S2 do it that frequently, but occasionally for informational purposes. Sometimes I am also confused, so I understand you.
 
Food for thought.

There is no obligation for anyone to teach/explain anybody here unless they are paid to do so. However, if one is genuine in teaching one's method, read on the below:

You recently took a test drive of 'all the signals' with the chart identifying when you entered and exit. Now based on the chart alone, I can tell you that where I would have entered and exited can be quite different from yours. Also, a 'newbie' would have more likely started there as it makes the most sense (what better way to start then see for a period of time, all the entries that are generated after having read basic information and do some practise of RSI indicators) and get himself/herself confused. Also they would later see other charts that show what they see as higher highs etc being identified as grails/ entry points etc when previously it was not taken in the test drive thus making them even more confused.

The problem with the thread is that unlike some of the other threads such as Spyder's and SPX Credit Spread, there are many 'newbies or others' that are willing to ask lots of questions and thus ease their confusion and as a result others who are reading and may not post get to benefit also. As there are comparatively very few doing the same thing in yours/B1S2's thread currently and those that asked are usually 'more familiar/experienced', one will assume from the posts that fewer less experienced people are following the method espoused there. So the thread may genuinely have a good method and there may be some genuine interest to pass on the method, but I feel that the 'passing on knowledge is still lacking, mainly because of lack of questions from newbs'.

Now, I'm not saying that you or anybody start changing their style etc or what they have been doing. I'm just pointing out my observation as a result of your repeated remarks on the greatness of the method and your 'some interest in sharing??'. I guess I'm a bit tired of hearing the same words from you when I can see the problems faced by newbs and myself :D Note, newbs need to do their part also if they intend to follow the method. Of course yours/others mileage may vary.

Hopefully this will be my last post in this thread. Fingers crossed.

Quote from romik:

There are 2 reasons why I don't take every single pattern

1) If I open a trade in the morning based on the first pattern that becomes apparent I will try and stay in the trade hoping for a trend day, if not chances are I won't lose much or nothing at all. I have done a test on taking every single pattern intraday just to see what results can be generated, doesn't mean I will actually commit my money to that sort of trading;

2) There is no obligation to post on ET everything we do in real-life. There is no reason to post set-ups that have occurred, so I don't think I or B1S2 do it that frequently, but occasionally for informational purposes. Sometimes I am also confused, so I understand you.
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So, the longer the time frame the less of the market a person can grab? when did intraday trading come about, is technology the key to trading intraday movements? To end, it is only greed for more and fear of losing out that turns a person to picking tops. Would this final statement ring true at all?
 
re:It is pretty obvious when a top is forming
1. high volume distribution at a resistance point
2. a blowoff top characterized by increased volume and price appreciation. The chart resembles a parabola.
NONE of the indices are showing ANY of these signs which is why the bull market will continue for a very long time.

According to my work we have already had two distribution days this month. There are " blowoff " tops and there are " rounded " tops sometimes you just start sagging and that picks up speed and turns into a correction. That's usually the case when dealing with liquidity driven rallys. Resistance points work better with individual stocks, in a market, it's all in the mind.
I could give you a list of a hundred stocks that have the Parabola you are looking for- the Nasdaq itself will never have that again but certainly lots of it's stocks have and do. I am in 17% cash.
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

re:It is pretty obvious when a top is forming
1. high volume distribution at a resistance point
2. a blowoff top characterized by increased volume and price appreciation. The chart resembles a parabola.
NONE of the indices are showing ANY of these signs which is why the bull market will continue for a very long time.

According to my work we have already had two distribution days this month. There are " blowoff " tops and there are " rounded " tops sometimes you just start sagging and that picks up speed and turns into a correction. That's usually the case when dealing with liquidity driven rallys. Resistance points work better with individual stocks, in a market, it's all in the mind.
I could give you a list of a hundred stocks that have the Parabola you are looking for- the Nasdaq itself will never have that again but certainly lots of it's stocks have and do. I am in 17% cash.
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2 days of distribution out of 15 trading
days isnt ditribution but it is normal trading activity.

The nasdaq will go parabolic again with the next 5 years. It is guaranteed if you look at it closely.

The rally we have seen in the past 4 months is the set up to an eventual massive blowoff top what will be bigger then the one in 1999-2000.
 
Massive blowoff in what DOW stocks? There doesn't seem to be the technological innovation now that will ever equal the beginning of the internet. If there is a super bull move in the future I could see biotech leading the way but the poor Naz is a broken index, until at least it retraces two thirds of it's losses.

The move we have seen lately is much more tied into China and our industrial machine & that has a cyclical nature to it that insures your scenario will never play out. I could see all the publicity surrounding the Olympics as the ultimate crescendo of China investing.
 
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