Picking a top in the bond today

Lucrum · Dec 16, 2008

Quote from harkm:

Seriously, this has to be the top....unless the Fed buys every bond.

I keep thinking that but don't see any PA to support the idea yet.

dhpar · Dec 16, 2008

never fight the fed...

number22 · Dec 16, 2008

We are going to see 40 years and maybe 50 years bonds coming out soon.

harkm · Dec 16, 2008

Quote from dhpar:

never fight the fed...

That is kind of a vague principle. The Fed has been lowering rates for a year and the stock market has been falling for that entire time. So you should have never shorted equities because essentially you are fighting the fed? Also, maybe the Fed is just jawboning the rate lower.

dhpar · Dec 16, 2008

Quote from harkm:

That is kind of a vague principle. The Fed has been lowering rates for a year and the stock market has been falling for that entire time. So you should have never shorted equities because essentially you are fighting the fed? Also, maybe the Fed is just jawboning the rate lower.

that's not vague at all if you trade fixed income. it is a lesson number one.

i was not talking about equities - the thread was supposed to be about the bond (i.e. 30y)

it does not matter if it is jawboning or real - look at the price action in the past 1 month - up 25 handles and absolutely vicious price action for scalping.

dhpar · Dec 16, 2008

Quote from number22:

We are going to see 40 years and maybe 50 years bonds coming out soon.

yup. they could make them zeros and they would still trade close to par - maybe above - who knows

nazzdack · Dec 17, 2008

Quote from number22:

..........40 and 50-years bonds.........

The "final top" will be when IBM and/or KO want to issue 100-year bonds.

ASusilovic · Dec 17, 2008

Quote from makloda:

I will give i a try and build up some short positions in the next couple of weeks.

bond tr4der · Dec 19, 2008

Quote from bond tr4der:

That was unexpected. Surely it can't go higher.

Too funny. I can only loom back and laugh/cry.

sumosam · Dec 23, 2008

why is it so hard to post a chart from stockcharts>

what i see is a breakout from a triple top...which has advanced 200 percent....an oscillator which is less strong than the previous run up...possible formation of an island top...oversold for quite a while....about 5 days of buying...with each day less and less, and finally sellers coming in today.

again, no guarantee, but, like the oil top, it will come....fly in the ointment seems to be that the market would likely need to go up and usd to come down for TLT to come down....but not sure, as I don;t usually trade bonds.