Physics Vs Prediction in Trading

Me too. I thought he was talking about Newton's Laws when he mentioned Physics.:D

at least in kind gesture reply he offered me Winston or was it Winston's
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When i say "physics" i am insisting to consider the three dimensions of the chart : price, time and volume before any amount of prediction. People tend to become too much subjective in their predictions and become blind to happenings on chart."Physics" is a strong word to tell my message. :)




In my opinion "trial & error method" is the closest match to stock charts.


Ok, three dimensions: price, time and volume.

What are some happenings you are referring to?

How do they relate to greed and fear?
 
Ok, three dimensions: price, time and volume.

What are some happenings you are referring to?

How do they relate to greed and fear?

A trend represents greed (or hope) while a range represents fear (or doubt). Supports and resistances are the building blocks of the chart. In other words all the emotional dramas happening in market is reflected precisely on chart.
 
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Eagles Eye View on Life

There are five aspects which determine our success in any field or area of our life.

First, creative imagination.

Second, emotional quotient (EQ).

Third, intelligence quotient (IQ).

Fourth, ability to focus.

Fifth, consistent perspiration.


Creative imagination helps to see things in a new way or in other words add a new view point. Our understanding increases by adding more view points. Creative imagination simply gives us an edge in understanding.

Emotional intelligence simply means "emotional balance". In any professional or personal areas of life, the circumstances challenges our composure and demands us to take a balanced stance to have better understanding and take effective decisions, like stock traders deal with greed (or hope) and fear (or doubt). Intuition and insights are results of balanced emotions with a little creative imagination.

Intelligence plays important part in our life and they work for us than against us when we APPLY intuition and insights.

Focus is the KEY. Those who have have immense focusing power can achieve greater things in combination with the remaining FOUR.

Last but not least, finally action can only bring results and of course effective results needs consistency.

Is this not an Eagles Eye View on our life ?

This thread, i believe, is a result of all the above five aspects. :)
 
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Ego vs Intuition

Ego always craves for exciting, stunning, spectacular, extraordinary and extra-large size secrets or facts to boast with.

Intuition exists only for those who tame their own ego.

Untamed ego is the root cause of all emotional imbalances.

Intuition is the genuine source for insights which are grounded in simplicity of life !

All legends and genius people are simple in their approach !

In stock trading market, millions of human perceptions are put into test and trial & error method emerges to be a natural outcome. Is this not a simple and genuine insight ? :)
 
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(Stock) Trading is a business

Any businessman needs two fundamental skills to succeed in his business.

First, quality relationship with money.

Eg. : "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Don't forget rule No. 1" - Warren Buffet
(Read this quote as an attitude / relationship towards money, NOT as an actionable rule.)

Second, genuine insight on the chosen business.

Stock trading is the chosen business for stock traders. What is your relationship with money? What is your insight on stock market? These two questions helps to define your success.

One may ask what about knowledge and efforts ?
  • Attitude / relationship shapes the insights.
  • Insights shapes the knowledge.
  • Knowledge shapes the actions.
  • Actions shape our results
  • Results shape our attitude / relationship
Thats the way life works. !

Be a good business coach for yourself or look for one, not half baked trading coaches.

Earning money is just a byproduct of any profession. Learning life lessons is the purpose of any profession.
 
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The central conundrum to every trader is the question…..are the markets random or not?

The reality however is that the market is a random walk much of the time punctuated with periods of non-random directed price behaviour. The market exhibits behaviour characterised by fat tails. What this means in statistical terms is that markets carry more risk than what normal distributions characterised by random Brownian motion imply.

Real world events induce abrupt change to otherwise well-behaved markets creating extreme variation within these otherwise random conditions leading to a significant proportion of overall price variance. In mathematical terms market movements are therefore better characterised by the term Levy Flight, which is a class of random walk, in which step lengths have a probability distribution that is heavy tailed…..anyway enough with the jargon. https://www.raftradingsolutions.com/dont-be-fooled-by-market-randomness/
 
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