Physics Vs Prediction in Trading
- Thread starter rajesheck
- Start date
Yes, because wave movements from observation are predictable. You "catch a wave", based on assumptions about it's future probabilities and wanting to "get in on that action". That is prediction, based on observation in the now and previous experience.
If the waves were completely unpredictable and too volatile, you wouldn't be able to surf either.
Perfect comparison !
Catching (trading on) waves (momentum) implies observation about what is happening NOW. Surfers (traders) see them forming in the PRESENT and try to catch a ride at an opportune moment.
I suppose the distinction is that you didn't necessarily see it coming but caught it when it was already in some stage of formation. But, as it relates to trading, you have no idea how well or how long that wave will endure. So you ride it as it is happening, rather than predicting how far it will go or whether it will be a smooth ride. Much like driving a car in unfamiliar territory, you react to the circumstances as you see them occurring. I don't normally associate driving with predicting; there may be a rare moment of "intuition" here and there based on years of experience, but mostly, you're reacting to your environment on the road.
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Two: Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
You forgot to add :
...through numbers(in your bank account).
Traded correctly... you don't "catch momentum"... it rather "catches you".
TOTAL HOGWASH!
Shame on you for posting such bilge. Are you TRYING TO FUCK OVER THE MINDS OF ASPIRING TRADERS??
If your assertions are correct, then the market is nothing more than "random noise"... with "no regularities" to be traded with a probability of success. That is NOT correct!!
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Just a reminder --
as humans, we have it so very much above (most of) the other animal species, in that we have an ability to conceive of abstract constructs, build deductions and intuitions around those constructs, and let that inform our lives. Yay, us.
However, "as humans," we are also, *generally*, locked into linear thinking. And the ugly, ugly fact is, that ALL of life, physics, etc, is exponential -- "geometric" -- and, like compounding interest, something goes happily along with minute increases until suddenly (it seems to us), we are overwhelmed with the cumulative effect.
So much of this thread is leaning heavily on the linear.
Don't miss the exponential, Greater Picture.
Yo.
as humans, we have it so very much above (most of) the other animal species, in that we have an ability to conceive of abstract constructs, build deductions and intuitions around those constructs, and let that inform our lives. Yay, us.
However, "as humans," we are also, *generally*, locked into linear thinking. And the ugly, ugly fact is, that ALL of life, physics, etc, is exponential -- "geometric" -- and, like compounding interest, something goes happily along with minute increases until suddenly (it seems to us), we are overwhelmed with the cumulative effect.
So much of this thread is leaning heavily on the linear.
Don't miss the exponential, Greater Picture.
Yo.
That's pretty deep, bro. Try not to step in it.
What I posted was from a movie called "Pi". It's about a mathematician who is driven nuts trying to find a pattern in the stock market. He finds something interesting and is subsequently stalked by people from an investment firm and people who are trying to find a hidden code in the torah -- both groups of which are convinced he has what they need.
Before you think "oh that sounds interesting, I want to watch it", be aware that it's from 1998, shot in black and white, and is not an action movie. The OP reminded me of that movie.
You are correct, it's hard to gauge beforehand, counterproductive even, what to expect from markets. Trading is very much reacting to everchanging present conditions.
However, you still need to correctly predict something in order to have the probabilities on your side (being on the right side of the market). Any random reaction is simply not going to cut it!
Driving a car is a good analogy to this. While driving, you not only have to react to minute changes of direction, velocity, road position, viewpoint from the car, driving conditions, etc. You also need to correctly predict what's happening around you: other cars, their intentions, signals, people walking in the road, bicycles, jaywalkers, animals, clutter in the road, accidents and catastrophic events. For many of these, the driver need to correctly gauge and anticipate the decisionmaking and capabilities of others, not just slavishly following traffic rules, but correctly predict and adjust according to unwritten physical and social laws, in order to avoid adverse effects and consequences.
It is not merely reacting to changing conditions, because it may be undefined what the correct reaction is, according to traffic laws and laws of the land, but drivers are still expected to make the correct decisions and are made accountable for unnecessary accidents and damages. Humans are still working on computer systems that can do this in realtime, but it requires alot of raw sensors and TPU power. There's no definite solvable answer to the equation in sight, as there are no definite requirements defining the final end goal.
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