Physics and Trading? Hmm…….

Sir :confused:

If you think that 120% annual profit, year by year, means that I'm an huckster then you better start thinking of purchasing from hucksters...

I'm speaking about years of research and investigation and a new mathematical model that runs for long time enough to be judged and measured, and yes, a new concept that shows the "virtual" connection between momentary chart slopes and trends...

Great weekend:)
 
Nitro, you are a complicated man, I appreciate that

I too am above average intellectually

however, never forget the fact that we will all die eventually,

and because we live in the present despite our memories

that time will come soon even though it will take years

judging from your number of posts (whooping 8000 something)

you need to smell the roses every now and then :)

after 50 posts ET is becoming boring
and I am getting real sick and tired of new members asking, "can you tell me how to play the markets"
 
<b>FutTrd</b>, our profession as successful traders can be complex or simple as any of us desire.

MENSA members tend to seek market clarity buried deep within obscurity: others find their solution from the bottom of shallow pools. Highly predictable price action can be very low tech indeed.

A lot of people out there are doing mighty fine trading very simple concepts with real-money in action... that is a fact. By the same token, many others enjoy equal (not greater) success in highly complex fashion.

I imagine your physics friend will find that market action can run across the proverbial windshield up, down or sideways in seeming endless variable fashion... many times harder to define than aerodynamics of water & friction.

<b>Lescor</b> said it very well: this knowledge is roughly 5% towards trading success in our profession.

Best Trading Wishes
Austin P
 
Quote from FutTrd:

Friend of mine is physicist by education and he is getting into trading.
He has had a revelation and he shared it with me. No not the religious kind.

The trading kind.

Okay, you are all familiar with water running down the windshield of your car.

Try to recall seeing last time a single stream of water running down your windshield.

Although you know that stream will go down you don’t know exact path it will take.

As the stream goes down it curves slightly differently every time.

Now he says that, stock charts are exactly like streaming fluids over uneven surface.
Seemingly random and yes with a degree of randomness but also with a degree of predictability.

All one needs to do is keep measuring deviation of fluid from the norm, the greater deviation the greater the probability that fluid when and if it snaps back into norm
will result in fluid being very predictable for a short while. Until deviations start again the cycle.

I don’t fully yet understand it myself, I am not a math whiz.

Basically this is sort of like “Control of Chaos by Capture and Release”
and “Fluid Dynamics”.

I find it interesting how inspiration can come from all kinds of natural rules.
More...

I am certainly not an expert in physics, or trading but have become quite interested in the subject of fractal analysis and chaos theory in the market place, especially in terms of trading analysis.

Just recently, I started reading The (Mis)behaviour of Markets by Benoit B. Mandelbrot...which is quite fascinating.

Is this what your 'physics friend' is working on or has experience in?

Thanks, kamisu
 
This is a fascinating topic: whether it is possible to program successful trading over the long haul. Apparently it is possible, or has been at least to some extent considering the number of computers "trading " the markets.

We all know that price contains both rational (e.g., economics, fundamentals, etc.) and irrational (i.e., emotional) factors. Therefore:

Step 1: irrational component = actual price - computed rational price.

Step 2: accurately predict the future value of the irrational component and plug it back into the above equation to compute future price!

Let me know when Ya'all have figured out how to do step 2. :)
 
Ok, I took Physics in high school and two more years in college.
Did it help in my trading....no.

I also took a semester of Psychology in college, and I would recommend you find a friend with an education in Psychology that trades, and you will avoid many of the black holes that your Physics friend will get you into. :p
 
I have a similar background in physics, but I believe the type of analysis FutTrd is talking about comes from scientists who are at a PHd level.

Recently, I have seen more articles and information about fractal analysis and applying the chaos theory to trading regarding Hedgefund companies and the institutional trading industry.

http://www.ballarat.edu.au/ard/itms/CIAO/seekingARCpartners.pdf#search='fractal%20analysis%2C%20large%20financial%20institutions'

and

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2006/0004277331&EDATE=

This is but a couple of examples...but you get the idea.

So when I saw this forum...I was curious as to what FurtTrd's friend is working on...and would these theories be applicable to the average trader, eventually.

Again, I don't know a lot about this subject, but would like to hear more about what FutTrd's friend is considering.

You never know where the next trading advantage is coming from.

kamisu
 
I am sorry, I made it all up

I am an awful person, but hey there is so much worse bull s**t on ET, its okay if I add some of mine :D

but what if I didn't make it up, okay okay lets not go into that guessing direction.

look all I know is that if this is real, it would work better in FOREX.

it makes sense that it would, forex is so much more like fluids
 
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