Whew , what a relief !
Now I don't have to worry about someone who posts stuff about me (like the below quote) from stealing my ideas
PHOENIX TRADING's 2013 Prophet and Loss Journal
- Thread starter PHOENIX TRADING
- Start date
Now I don't have to worry about someone who posts stuff about me (like the below quote) from stealing my ideas
The turtles were stringently selected and highly talented. They also received training, practice, and guidance. They got a good start from us, but they deserve most of the credit for their ongoing success. The successful turtles have branched out widely, but my trading has also changed; itâs evolve or perish....
As I recall more than half the course revolved around developing the right attitude, GUARDING AGAINST debilitating emotions, how to think about risk, and how to handle success and failure. Teaching the turtle system itself doesnât take very long. I was saying you need less than 12 degrees of freedom in a system; versions of the turtle system had three or four. We spent a lot of time talking about our theories on how to control risk; that was actually the bulk of the course. Attitude, emotional control, discipline; those things are harder to teach. All the turtles learned the system and learned the strategy; that was the easy part, but some of them brought the right attitude and right mental set to it and they prospered and became very rich. Others had a more halting career and did not succeed as well. They had the same training, but maybe they did not have the same emotional make-up. thats an excerpt from this interview http://www.futuresmag.com/2011/03/0...-launched-1000-systems?t=managed-funds&page=4 posted by soon2bgreat a couple weeks ago here on ET..in regards to our anger conversation
As I recall more than half the course revolved around developing the right attitude, GUARDING AGAINST debilitating emotions, how to think about risk, and how to handle success and failure. Teaching the turtle system itself doesnât take very long. I was saying you need less than 12 degrees of freedom in a system; versions of the turtle system had three or four. We spent a lot of time talking about our theories on how to control risk; that was actually the bulk of the course. Attitude, emotional control, discipline; those things are harder to teach. All the turtles learned the system and learned the strategy; that was the easy part, but some of them brought the right attitude and right mental set to it and they prospered and became very rich. Others had a more halting career and did not succeed as well. They had the same training, but maybe they did not have the same emotional make-up. thats an excerpt from this interview http://www.futuresmag.com/2011/03/0...-launched-1000-systems?t=managed-funds&page=4 posted by soon2bgreat a couple weeks ago here on ET..in regards to our anger conversation
I honestly don't know. I consider it a trend following system.It generates maybe 3-5 trades/year.
I missed my last entry when I was out of town for 2 weeks for employment and it moved strongly at that time.
I have very strict rules about refraining from chasing a market, so I'm still out.
If I were "in" my system would have me scaling out now.
So I'm just patiently waiting for the next opportunity.
IMHO: You can't force trades to happen, you just gotta wait for them to develop on their own and be ready to strike when the time comes.
good link.
Phoenix,
Would it be correct to say that you may have a global macro style of trading? Personally I feel that this is a very hard game to play, given how many professionals attempt this, but without knowing your strategy I certainly cannot judge.
I am concerned that your strategy generates very few trades. With this it is hard to have a significant sample size to know with a decent level of confidence that you have an edge. You can go on to have a good year or a bad year, but if you only do a few trades per year, it could have easily came down to good or bad luck.
Backtesting results, which are difficult to perform without biases, and may have inherently questionable value, become even more worthless with a small sample size.
Would it be correct to say that you may have a global macro style of trading? Personally I feel that this is a very hard game to play, given how many professionals attempt this, but without knowing your strategy I certainly cannot judge.
I am concerned that your strategy generates very few trades. With this it is hard to have a significant sample size to know with a decent level of confidence that you have an edge. You can go on to have a good year or a bad year, but if you only do a few trades per year, it could have easily came down to good or bad luck.
Backtesting results, which are difficult to perform without biases, and may have inherently questionable value, become even more worthless with a small sample size.
Yes you are quite right about considering myself having an edge based upon a small sample size as inconclusive.
I don't really want to elaborate too much but I consider myself having an edge based upon the philosophy or general concepts found in academia. I think I've found a way to exploit a behavioral finance bias and potentially use some concepts expounding on Fama & French 3 factor models.
So my first order of business is to survive playing the game long enough for those edges to manifest themselves.
whoa for a sec I was wondering why richard dennis is on ET. oh wait you're quoting a tabloid article from a magazine as the truth...
Based on what I see so far you may have something. time shall be the test. good luck.