PHOENIX TRADING's 2013 Prophet and Loss Journal

Quote from HurricaneUS:

1)It appears to me that your biggest problem is "lack of an edge"..heck..i'll even put it in bold for you...lack of an edge

Go read Neke's thread to see what will happen to your 500k without an edge..

2)without an edge..the market systematically and methodically parts a fool from his money

3)Do not spend even 1 dime of your own money without an edge...find some other endeavor to invest in...I'm warning you..I also warned Neke but he didn't listen.
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1) I seriously don't get how you've determined that I have no edge and audaciously declaring such in bold.

I can only presume it's because I failed to mention in the meantime I developed a philosophy and strategy that not only is profitable but matches my belief systems about the markets and is congruent with my strongest personality traits*.


I'm pretty sure I have an edge and I'm willing to test that
hypothesis.

2) I can assure you I'm no fool.

3) I appreciate your warning but I think it's founded on a lack of information coupled with a tinge of ill will and hubris.

* Myself I think success in trading has a lot to do with finding the method which fits your personality and beliefs.
Playing to your strengths is all important, otherwise you will be fighting yourself and your system.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm pretty sure I have an edge
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Well, if you don't mind me asking, what makes you think so? Have you made money for an extended period of time during that 3 years? Do you have experience/results testing this edge or is this a newly found one?

And even if you made let's say 30% for 8 months, then that 45% DD occured, that doesn't sound too good as an edge. What makes you think it won't be repeated????

Maybe hiring an assistant is not a bad idea, who would make sure you only trade by your rules (and those rules are sound to begin with) and you don't overtrade, revenge trade, etc. Not to mention you should describe to him in advance why you make a trade and what is the target and stop loss and he makes you to stick to it...

Just an idea. Such an assistant could have saved Neke's ass....
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Early distribution,
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ok.... I am at a lost here.... you are experiencing a 45% dd... and you will be paying penalties when taking those distributions... am sorry, but that is not the wisest thing to do at all... there are more creative ways to have access to those funds, I would suggest you talk to an accountant that specializes in traders and has a good understanding of how to minimize if not avoid the tax liabilities you will be triggering.

good luck...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

1)Well, if you don't mind me asking, what makes you think so? 2)Have you made money for an extended period of time during that 3 years? Do you have experience/results testing this edge or is this a newly found one?

3)And even if you made let's say 30% for 8 months, then that 45% DD occured, that doesn't sound too good as an edge. What makes you think it won't be repeated????

4)Maybe hiring an assistant is not a bad idea, who would make sure you only trade by your rules (and those rules are sound to begin with) and you don't overtrade, revenge trade, etc. Not to mention you should describe to him in advance why you make a trade and what is the 5)target and 6)stop loss and he makes you to stick to it...

Just an idea. Such an assistant could have saved Neke's ass....
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1) Back tests and last year's results and potential gains.
2) Newly found.
3) Drawdown from peak is a result of former trading approach so it
doesn't apply.
Former trading approach was trading one separate idea to a time.
Now I have more of a systematic approach and all trades will be based
on the the same philosophical concept. Drawdowns are an inevitable part of trading.
4) PHfft I'm unemployed, I'm not paying someone to learn my edge.
Besides I have not demonstrated the trading flaws in which you
mention. I also do not have hard and fast rules that can be told
explicitly or programmed into a computer. IOW it's not a strategy of
"if the green line crosses the lil blue line get in " type non-sense .

5) I don't set predetermined targets, I let the market decide how far it's going to go.

6) I don't use traditional stop losses, I may re-position to change the nature the predominate aspect of the trade.
But getting shaken out and running away is counter productive.
 
Quote from ofthomas:

ok.... I am at a lost here.... you are experiencing a 45% dd... and you will be paying penalties when taking those distributions... am sorry, but that is not the wisest thing to do at all... there are more creative ways to have access to those funds, I would suggest you talk to an accountant that specializes in traders and has a good understanding of how to minimize if not avoid the tax liabilities you will be triggering.

good luck...
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I'm sorry I don't know what you're hinting at.

Yes of course I'll be paying penalties I'm aware of that.

How much I take out will be a function of how much I need for living expenses and if the market is in a position where my strategy will benefit from the use of the more flexibility afforded in a taxable account (ie going short).
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm sorry I don't know what you're hinting at.

Yes of course I'll be paying penalties I'm aware of that.

How much I take out will be a function of how much I need for living expenses and if the market is in a position where my strategy will benefit from the use of the more flexibility afforded in a taxable account (ie going short).
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not hinting anything... all I will say is that there are creative ways... I dont advise anything at all... in any event, I understand what you are doing, I just know there are better ways... talk to a qualified accountant, unless you already did so... but depending on your living expenses and state of residence, and how much you distribute in the end, losing 10-20c of every dollar before ever making a profit sucks... just my point of view, nothing else...

on another note, have you thought about a prop account? why not look at bright trading? if I am not mistaken they can trade remotely, and if your strategy produces funds, it might be easier to take 100K out, pay $10K penalty, fund the prop with $50K and keep the rest for living costs while the strategy produces and you can start sweeping funds out...

just thoughts, nothing else...
 
Quote from ofthomas:

not hinting anything... all I will say is that there are creative ways... I dont advise anything at all... in any event, I understand what you are doing, I just know there are better ways... talk to a qualified accountant, unless you already did so... but depending on your living expenses and state of residence, and how much you distribute in the end, losing 10-20c of every dollar before ever making a profit sucks... just my point of view, nothing else...

on another note, have you thought about a prop account? why not look at bright trading? if I am not mistaken they can trade remotely, and if your strategy produces funds, it might be easier to take 100K out, pay $10K penalty, fund the prop with $50K and keep the rest for living costs while the strategy produces and you can start sweeping funds out...

just thoughts, nothing else...
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I'm relocating to florida so I won't be taxed on un-earned income.

I'm not interested in increasing my vig and having somebody else try to tell me how to trade, jumping through their hoops etc etc. I may be wrong but I just don't perceive the advantage although I did briefly consider it.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm relocating to florida so I won't be taxed on un-earned income.

I'm not interested in increasing my vig and having somebody else try to tell me how to trade, jumping through their hoops etc etc. I may be wrong but I just don't perceive the advantage although I did briefly consider it.
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FL is perfect, as an FYI... you can draw to purchase a place from the account without penalties... and there are lots of cheap houses and condos for under $50K (I realize I dont know your family composition) which should help to control costs...

as to Bright, you should reach out and find out ... if I am not mistaken, every trading there is kind of doing their own thing in a way, and have modified whatever strategies they provide to suit their needs... you dont lose anything by finding out... again, just another option you can investigate...
 
Quote from ofthomas:

FL is perfect, as an FYI... you can draw to purchase a place from the account without penalties... and there are lots of cheap houses and condos for under $50K (I realize I dont know your family composition) which should help to control costs...

as to Bright, you should reach out and find out ... if I am not mistaken, every trading there is kind of doing their own thing in a way, and have modified whatever strategies they provide to suit their needs... you dont lose anything by finding out... again, just another option you can investigate...
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I'm renting, I own my home in Alabama outright and i'm not selling .
Originally I planned to stay in my home the nights I needed to for work on monday and tuesday.

If I can find someplace suitable to me high pay rate 2 days /week I'll certainly take it.

Right now I'm not willing to sell my intents of changing my life for the better at the first sign of some d!ckhead lying to me and screwing me over.
That's the part of life I'm leaving behind and none too soon IMHO.

I'll think about prop a little more but my tolerance for bullshit is flat out zero these days.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm renting, I own my home in Alabama outright and i'm not selling .
Originally I planned to stay in my home the nights I needed to for work on monday and tuesday.

If I can find someplace suitable to me high pay rate 2 days /week I'll certainly take it.

Right now I'm not willing to sell my intents of changing my life for the better at the first sign of some d!ckhead lying to me and screwing me over.
That's the part of life I'm leaving behind and none too soon IMHO.

I'll think about prop a little more but my tolerance for bullshit is flat out zero these days.
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lol... you sound pissed ... :) ... we are deviating now, but here are some more ideas...

if you own the home outright, get a HELOC on the house, find a tenant that you can rent it to which will generate enough income to pay for the carrying costs of the house, and use the HELOC funds (not all of them) to trade at a prop... shit hits the fan, you can draw necessary funds from IRA to cover the carrying costs on the house...

just some suggestions to think about... as to bright, have a call with Don and hash it out... nothing ventured, nothing gain... you lose nothing by being open mind and looking into it... :)
 
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