PHOENIX TRADING's 2013 Prophet and Loss Journal

Quote from cornixforex:

I would not measure trading small private account by the same standards as hedge-funds/large CTA's. In my experience, 24% ROI per year with relatively low draw-down is not only possible, but pretty realistic to achieve if you swing trade. Likely much more than that if you day-trade.
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I hear that a lot.
I'm not saying it isn't harder to generate returns with a large AUM.

But I think this is where people mistake anecdotal evidence as data.

So once again I'll ask everybody here : Lets see a verified listing of returns of any size AUM and their returns.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I hear that a lot.
I'm not saying it isn't harder to generate returns with a large AUM.

But I think this is where people mistake anecdotal evidence as data.

So once again I'll ask everybody here : Lets see a verified listing of returns of any size AUM and their returns.
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With that I agree, not many of those who make it are listed publicly (probably due to the absence of the need to advertise their services :) ).

Quite many relatively small CTA's show not bad verified results though.
 
Below is a breakdown of hedge fund returns and failure by size.

It would be nice to know the returns of the top 1% of the under 10 million in assets.

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Quote from cornixforex:

I would not measure trading small private account by the same standards as hedge-funds/large CTA's. In my experience, 24% ROI per year with relatively low draw-down is not only possible, but pretty realistic to achieve if you swing trade. Likely much more than that if you day-trade.
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You've got to be kidding me about the daytrading stuff.

The odds get even worse the more frequently you trade.
Besides computer program trading is wiping these guy out as far as I know.

Only the top 1/10th percent probably make money like you claim in one year much less on a consistent basis.

Otherwise 2 things have to happen 1) Lots of new traders losing everything.
2) The returns from these few accounts would be significantly responsible driving avg equity returns if they trade stocks.

3) If they trade futures and or options , both are slightly negative sum games due to commissions .
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

You've got to be kidding me about the daytrading stuff.

The odds get even worse the more frequently you trade.
Besides computer program trading is wiping these guy out as far as I know.

Only the top 1/10th percent probably make money like you claim in one year much less on a consistent basis.

Otherwise 2 things have to happen 1) Lots of new traders losing everything.
2) The returns from these few accounts would be significantly responsible driving avg equity returns if they trade stocks.

3) If they trade futures and or options , both are slightly negative sum games due to commissions .
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No intention to joke in the serious thread with your real money account involved.

The more frequently you trade, the more you make if you have a significant edge. Opposite if you don't.

I trade futures and speak from my experience and experience of my colleagues who do the same.

Of course day-trading is more demanding, because commission constitutes higher % of the move etc. Not going to say it's so easy. But is it realistic with experience and deliberate practice? No slightest doubts about it.

As for % of those who make it, % of those who consistently lose weight is also pathetic considering all who try that. Does it mean weight loss is any complicated technically?
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm not saying 24% is impossible but it's far from the norm or ease of grasp as you seem to imply.

I just showed you the Top 100 large hedgefunds, the best and brightest in the world.The 24% you bandied about puts you at about the 94th percentile.

How about this : Compile me a list of traders, hedge funds, mutual funds advisers of whatever AUM you like, then show me what percentage exceeded 24% gains.
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I'm sorry but no it does not. Returning 24% trading futures products on $500 or even $2 million does not put you ANYWHERE near the caliber and class of a manager who runs capital in the billions. The strategy I am implying is STRICTLY a trading strategy, not investing, merger-arb, credit etc. Simple trading of crude, copper, RUT, SPX. You have to keep this in context that these funds you post about run highly advanced strategies and have access to credit markets/indexes that retail does not. Also, trading levered ETF's is an accident waiting to happen, I would encourage you to read the LP agreements within the prospectus' as well as taking a look at TVIX. If you want to trade gold in that IRA I would use NEM, ABX. NUGT, to express those ideas. For S&P500 UPRO. But, my original point was that you should be able to make $10,000 a month trading futures with $500,000 if your goal is to quit your job and do this full time. As for the list of HFM/CTA's, again, not all are going to be listed nor do they want to be. Again, if you can pull 24% even 10% on $1B + then you are a master of the universe, no doubt. 1mill account at 24% = $240,000 - You could make that on weekly apple options trading over the course of a year, seriously. Watch that market alone for a week. I would take a trip to Chicago and visit CBOE/CME and talk to people there, see what they say. As for these claims of HFT etc, it's true, trading stocks is hard, unless you're loading up on prop shares and trying to snag $1-$2 moves, though, Tim Sykes ( I use him because he has amateur traders with less money than you doing well) has traders running a really simple strategy and these guys can make $300-$500 a day.

Please excuse my last post, I must admit my anger got the best of me.
 
Here is a P/L from last January on a VERY basic weekly options account strategy I use. $4800, one month, that account never has more than $10,000 in it at any given time.
 

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Quote from Busta21:

Here is a P/L from last January on a VERY basic weekly options account strategy I use. $4800, one month,1) that account never has more than $10,000 in it at any given time.
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Well you see now that doesn't make a bit of sense unless you know a subsequent month has a high risk of losing 50- 70%.

c'mon don't give me the bluster and pretend 10k ends the scalability of your strategy.

We both know the reason you limit it to 10k is because it's apt to blowup , like a lit fart.

What's more ,everybody out there that doesn't believe in the tooth fairy knows it too. Nobody in their right mind would put such restrictions on a strategy like that if they were truly representative of it's consistent returns.
 
Quote from Busta21:

2)I'm sorry but no it does not. Returning 24% trading futures products on $500 or even $2 million does not put you ANYWHERE near the caliber and class of a manager who runs capital in the billions.
3)The strategy I am implying is STRICTLY a trading strategy, not investing, merger-arb, credit etc. Simple trading of crude, copper, RUT, SPX. You have to keep this in context that these funds you post about run highly advanced strategies and have access to credit markets/indexes that retail does not.

4)Also, trading levered ETF's is an accident waiting to happen, I would encourage you to read the LP agreements within the prospectus' as well as taking a look at TVIX.

If you want to trade gold in that IRA I would use NEM, ABX. NUGT, to express those ideas. For S&P500 UPRO. But, my original point was that you should be able to make $10,000 a month trading futures with $500,000 if your goal is to quit your job and do this full time. As for the list of HFM/CTA's, again, not all are going to be listed nor do they want to be. Again, if you can pull 24% even 10% on $1B + then you are a master of the universe, no doubt. 1mill account at 24% = $240,000 - You could make that on weekly apple options trading over the course of a year, seriously. Watch that market alone for a week.

5)I would take a trip to Chicago and visit CBOE/CME and talk to people there, see what they say. As for these claims of HFT etc, it's true, trading stocks is hard, unless you're loading up on prop shares and trying to snag $1-$2 moves, though,

6)Tim Sykes ( I use him because he has amateur traders with less money than you doing well) has traders running a really simple strategy and these guys can make $300-$500 a day.

Please excuse my last post,1) I must admit my anger got the best of me.
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1) No worries my honest opinion will probably piss you off again anyway if I haven't already.

2) I was referencing the returns not the skill .

3) Fine then all you are doing is making my case for me, since their size enables them to exploit advantages retail traders cannot, yet their results still underperform.

4) I'm sorry but me & my 4th grade math say you are wrong , but thanks for the warning anyway. I find it mildly amusing that every two bit financial writer and blogger seems to think these instruments are not understood by anyone save themselves.


5) I'm sure they'ed regale the stories of all those exceptions that beat the odds and innocently forget all those poor slubs who left penniless and now work for the DOT turning those stop/slow signs for me on the highway.

6) Oh boy , I don't think much of Tim. but hey that's my opinion.
Tim claims to have a success rate with his short strategy of 75%, which has delivered a 56% return in 2010, proving he still has the golden touch. His problem is that the strategy is not scalable, and can only be executed with a small amount of money. No mega hedge fund for him.

That’s why Tim has turned to online education instead of ramping up a big hedge fund. Today, he is offering several subscription newsletters, trade alerts, chat rooms, along with a DVD course on making money in the penny stock market at his website at http://www.timothysykes.com/ .
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I don't doubt Tim is successful , I do however doubt his students do as well.
 
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