Philosophy #1
- Thread starter ttrader
- Start date
If the market were depicted like a moving weather satellite image of the earth with pressure gradient contours I don't think it would look anything like a weather image where you can easily see where the clouds are heading. I think it would look more like a map of the sun with its' roiling chaotic surface currents and sporadic high energy explosions(sunspots)which gestate under the surface and are difficult to detect ahead of time.
Meteoroligists don't have to meet margin calls if it rains 3 days in a row..
Actually, if you trade weather futures, you just might have to meet a margin call after 3 days rain.
Now if both meteorologists and stock analysts were forced to take financial positions to back up their prognostications, the world would be a safer place! (Actually, it would be a quieter place cuz all the analysts would pack up their toys and go home. That might not be so bad either)
-Traden4Alpha
Now if both meteorologists and stock analysts were forced to take financial positions to back up their prognostications, the world would be a safer place! (Actually, it would be a quieter place cuz all the analysts would pack up their toys and go home. That might not be so bad either)
-Traden4Alpha
85% probability?
The weather for Florida in the summer is always: it's hot and it will probably rain. Saying "PM Tstorms" is not the same as saying "it will rain at the airport from 2:18-2:35 pm."
Can we really predict the weather? It depends on the definition of "predict."
Tomorrow I predict that some stocks will go down.
The weather for Florida in the summer is always: it's hot and it will probably rain. Saying "PM Tstorms" is not the same as saying "it will rain at the airport from 2:18-2:35 pm."
Can we really predict the weather? It depends on the definition of "predict."
Tomorrow I predict that some stocks will go down.
actually chasinfla nailed it I think, since predictions about the market effect the market. That is about what George Soros' "Theory of Reflexivity" is.
Then someone else mentioned that if you just predict that the weather tommorrow will be the same as the weather today, you will be right more than the forcasters. That sounds like trend following to me.
Then someone else mentioned that if you just predict that the weather tommorrow will be the same as the weather today, you will be right more than the forcasters. That sounds like trend following to me.
Originally posted by Fitz
85% probability? Says who? You have any research links to back this statement up or was that just some number that you made up?
Not trying to be a smarta$$. I've just never heard of that before.
Searched for "weather forecast accuracy" on http://www.google.com ...