Quote from vicirek:
Yeah, I red that. I am looking for some light to guide me through the markets and I thought that he is starting new church.
You seem to be caught in the conventional wisdom.
Luck is a concern of this set of people.
Review how your mind got to the beliefs you have associated with luck.
It is not a consideration for me and you have made it important.
I used deduction as the only method to develop my methodologies.
Luck is associated with induction mostly.
From my point of view, you are not going to get anywhere simply because you have taken several wrong forks in the road.
Se if you can figure out how the 90% failures people get to the end of the road with the fewest wrong descisions.
It only takes 4 to break into the 90th to 100% failure percentile. 3 wrong choices gets you to 87.5 failure rate.
I do not think it is too hard to reason that if a trend is not done on one day that the trend will be completing on the next day if you are trading intraday. From this idea, you can work back to the order of events of all trends.
If you are position trading, most of the time a trade will take several days if you are trading on the fastest position trading fractal.
There is a contest going on here that has a rule set that applies to position trading but it is required to be applied, unfortunately, to intrady trading. Every one loses as a consequence. To make money with it you can only trade the last day of each position trend.