PhalanX - Real Time S&P 500 Predictions

Fridays Prediction: 4.63

-Result-
Open: 775.87
Close: 770.05
Change: -5.82

Prediction: Wrong

Note: Due to the difference between the S&P500 and ES, this trade was actually profitable in the paper trade. It seems the software is adapting to a recent change in the market. I believe the prediction accuracy will start to improve quickly over the next week.

Paper Trade (one ES contract, Market Orders):

Buy ES @ 762.25 (9:30am)
Sell ES @ 769.75 (4:00pm)
Change: +7.50
Profit/Loss: $375.00

Overall Profit/Loss: $525

Next Prediction:

Monday (02/23/09):
Prediction: 3.17
Signal: Buy

This signal should be traded by buying ES on Monday at Open (9:30am) and Exiting (selling) at Close (4:00pm).
 
Quote from RiskyShift:

I haven't "n-tupled" my money because I can't afford the initial capital to invest. Sure, I could go get a small loan and hope that I can satisfy margin requirements long enough to get things rolling but that leaves very little room for error. No system will be right all the time and you MUST be prepared for losses.
More...

A question and a comment:

Why not go to Collective 2? It may be worth your while. If your system is robust and not simply curvefitted, you'll have your trading stake in no time.

It is one thing to trade a system not using real money, and it is quite another to trade it with real money. To make real money, one has to trade ALL of the signals, and do so without failure. That is easy to do when the system is on a winning streak, and quite another when it is not. It is human nature, once money is on the liine, to override signals because the market "does not look right."
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

A question and a comment:

Why not go to Collective 2? It may be worth your while. If your system is robust and not simply curvefitted, you'll have your trading stake in no time.

It is one thing to trade a system not using real money, and it is quite another to trade it with real money. To make real money, one has to trade ALL of the signals, and do so without failure. That is easy to do when the system is on a winning streak, and quite another when it is not. It is human nature, once money is on the liine, to override signals because the market "does not look right."
More...

Someone else mentioned that site to me when I first started this thread. Bookmarked it but never took time to check it out. I am signing up there now though.

I understand no system will be right all the time and believe strongly based on prior results, that the results here will improve.

I hope that if I was trading real money, I would be able to trade all the signals and not let my own opinions get in the way.
 
Mondays Prediction: 3.17

-Result-
Open: 773.25
Close: 743.33
Change: -29.92

Prediction: Wrong

Note: N/A

Paper Trade (one ES contract, Market Orders):

Buy ES @ 777.75 (9:30am)
Sell ES @ 742.50 (4:00pm)
Change: -35.25
Profit/Loss: ($1762.50)

Overall Profit/Loss: ($1237.50)

Next Prediction:

Tuesday (02/24/09):
Prediction: 4.87
Signal: Buy

This signal should be traded by buying ES on Tuesday at Open (9:30am) and Exiting (selling) at Close (4:00pm).
 
Quote from RiskyShift:

Mondays Prediction: 3.17
-Result-: Wrong
More...
Your 83.33% accurate signals (> +-2) are now 3 and 5 for 37.5%.

Your best bet, if you want to eventually sell access to the signals, is to dump your current username, re-register, and start over in the Journals section. Maybe you will get lucky on your second try.
 
Tuesdays Prediction: 4.87

-Result-
Open: 744.69
Close: 773.14
Change: +28.45

Prediction: Right

Note: N/A

Paper Trade (one ES contract, Market Orders):

Buy ES @ 748.25 (9:30am)
Sell ES @ 771.00 (4:00pm)
Change: +22.75
Profit/Loss: $1,137.50

Overall Profit/Loss: ($100.00)

Next Prediction:

Wednesday (02/25/09):
Prediction: -2.46
Signal: Sell

This signal should be traded by selling ES on Wednesday at Open (9:30am) and Exiting (buying) at Close (4:00pm).
 
RiskyShift:

great thread. Don't let anybody tell you your system is worthless...thats what these threads are for, to help figure this out and to improve on ideas/methods, etc. I will be following your progress, even though I am not a mechanical trader at all.

One observation though: it appears your system would work better if the signal generated could be traded at the close of that day (for instance, if the signal for mkt direction for tomorrow could be entered in the final 5 minutes of today's activity). I just noticed that your results would be a lot better, at least over the period you've shown results for. Any way to tweak it to get the data ahead of the close? Just a thought...although I'm sure you've explored every angle.
 
Wednesdays Prediction: -2.46

-Result-
Open: 770.64
Close: 764.90
Change: -5.74

Prediction: Right

Note: N/A

Paper Trade (one ES contract, Market Orders):

Sell ES @ 766.75 (9:30am)
Buy ES @ 763.75 (4:00pm)
Change: -3.00
Profit/Loss: $150.00

Overall Profit/Loss: $50.00

Next Prediction:

Thursday (02/26/09):
Prediction: 3.82
Signal: Buy

This signal should be traded by buying ES on Thursday at Open (9:30am) and Exiting (selling) at Close (4:00pm).
 
I don't want to call this strategy dead too early, but it isn't improving at all. With today's loss of about 20 pts, it is back in the red again.

Also, the idea of being able to tell the day's direction EVERY DAY (well, most of the time), 12 hours ahead of the time is ridiculous. With this volatility what we still have it is rather easy to get 2 consecutive days wrong and to get a 50 pts loss.

My guess is that in the long run it will do 50-50%, just like a coinflip would and it will be sometimes up, sometimes down, depending on how many losers or winners it catches in a row by LUCK....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I don't want to call this strategy dead too early, but it isn't improving at all. With today's loss of about 20 pts, it is back in the red again.

Also, the idea of being able to tell the day's direction EVERY DAY (well, most of the time), 12 hours ahead of the time is ridiculous. With this volatility what we still have it is rather easy to get 2 consecutive days wrong and to get a 50 pts loss.

My guess is that in the long run it will do 50-50%, just like a coinflip would and it will be sometimes up, sometimes down, depending on how many losers or winners it catches by LUCK....
More...

guessing direction can be done with 75% probability if i remember this right.
 
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