PhalanX - Real Time S&P 500 Predictions
- Thread starter RiskyShift
- Start date
I was trying to say that I was not just blindly spamming. Yes, I do plan on selling access to the system to a few people at a later date. I do not plan on saying: "Look at my Past results! You could get rich with this system, just go to my website and buy it now!"
I'm making predictions in a way that can not be falsified. No past data to manipulate, and no selective interpretation of the rules.
I do have a job and no I can't currently afford to go $10,000 into debt just to get the initial capital needed to trade the system with a small margin of error.
AH have nothing to do with the predictions. I am predicting at 10:00PM what will happen between 9:30AM and 4:00PM tomorrow.
Let me know if my initial explanation of how the predictions work is too complicated or unclear so I can try to reword it.
Not going to have time to reply to everyone but will do what I can...
How would I find people to put money in a good robust system?
How would I prove to them the system is legitimate and not a scam?
Wouldn't you be more likely to pay for trading signals you have seen to be correct in real-time?
Isn't seeing the predictions in real time more convincing than unverifiable past results?
The earliest the signals are available is 8pm. However, I don't see the problem with that.
The predictions are for the next day. The current prediction is that the market will close lower than it opens on Tuesday.
If you were to trade the current prediction (-3.35) you would short ES at 9:30am and cover at 4:00pm.
My prediction is that you're going to be 2-for-2 in the losing department.
It's very difficult to get timing and direction to line up with any consistency ... (which is pretty much what we're working on doing here).
GL anyway.
I'm going to answer it in 2 ways.
Literally - You have to know at least 1 person with some kind of money. If not hang out at a starbucks or in a lunch area downtown and do some networking.
Figuratively - By analyzing it completely over a substantial size of data on various markets so that your edge is very clear.
Same response as above.
I would never pay for a black box anything.
Not particularly. Before I would every consider funding a system I would be much more concerned with the risk controls in place by the person running it, esp with the "predictive" nature of your system.
You would be very surprised to see the number of systems that I have found to be very profitable with proper risk/position sizing/money management.
Thanks for the advice...
If I'm wrong and this software is trash, I will happily accept that and move on.
But why not give it a chance before you rule me a incompetent quack?
Predicting a binary outcome is nigh to useless for most traders here as you cannot relate your outcome probability to a statistical vola figure. Without an inkling to vola you've got no exit on the trade, no R/R, PF, APD, etc.
Your top 2-decile trade produced a failure on it's first run, so it's not a spectacular start.
The binary-prediction may appeal to binary option traders as they're trading on path-independence; unfortunately, the vast majority of futures-traders are acutely aware of the impact of path-dependence.
Your top 2-decile trade produced a failure on it's first run, so it's not a spectacular start.
The binary-prediction may appeal to binary option traders as they're trading on path-independence; unfortunately, the vast majority of futures-traders are acutely aware of the impact of path-dependence.
One problem is with your approach, that there are 3 market directions, not 2. Rally, selloff and sideways.
So I assume any prediction of yours in the -0.5 to +0.5 range could indicate a sideways market. In that case you could be right by my evaluation, but according to your accounting you would call it a bad prediction.
You are kind of handicapping yourself.
So I assume any prediction of yours in the -0.5 to +0.5 range could indicate a sideways market. In that case you could be right by my evaluation, but according to your accounting you would call it a bad prediction.
You are kind of handicapping yourself.