Pete's Place

Quote from peterfigliozzi:

In poker, when I fold 7-2 os I don't get angry if the flop comes 7-7-2 or 7-7-7. In trading, I have a harder time in the same situation. At the root of it, there are no hard statistics in trading as there are in poker. Well, you can compute all the statistics you want, but they change, unlike cards.
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Hey Peter,

Glad to see another Hold Em player on the site.. Its funny.. when I play poker I'm extremely disciplined and play very well..

But I'm just the oppositte in trading.. undisciplined and take too many gambles.. and it shows in the bottom line..

In fact, I'll be playing in the World Series big event this year.. won a spot on the net.. hopefully I'll pull another Moneymaker..
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

What do you believe the reason is... the cold calculable probabilities of cards, vs. the more subtle edges found in trading?
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Thats what I'm having trouble figuring out..

With cards.. I enjoy being there and waiting for a good hand..

Trading.. I feel the need to be in the market.. not sure why though.. I have this urgency to make money.. to not miss an opportunity.. God forbid the market should go in my direction and I'm not in..

Trying to figure it out.. with trading I go thru the same exact thing every time.. I take a break.. I start trading again.. I'm disciplined and patient.. I show profits.. usually for 1 - 2 weeks.. then I give it all back plus some.. I get anxious to trade.. and I can't figure out where the breakdown is coming in..
 
I should have mentioned in my previous post.. that with trading I know what my outcome would be if I'm patient.. I know that by only taking high quality trades that fit into my plan I will do very well and probably eventually become wealthy.. or at least live comfortably.. but I abandon my principles time and time again..
 
Small loss shorting the bonds (ZB mini) today. It was a legitimate setup, just didn't work out. I got out without letting it hit my stop, which is good. Shown on the chart.

Held off on shorting the NQ today, however a failed, low volume attempt to move higher in the morning will be a short trigger for me.
 

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Howdy traders,

I lost a little bit with an NQ short today (attached).
Gem of a setup I thought, high volume doji at previous R,
but oh well. I don't hold losers overnight. And hey, if the NQ gaps down 100 points on Monday, i'll be 3 for 3 in closing trades that gap in my favor the next day.
 

Attachments

There was a textbook double bottom on the NQ...
clear on the 5 minute chart... attached.
I should have noticed this and at the very least, set my
stops to b/e on that short.
 

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Did some manual backtesting... check this out...

The win rate is 56% just looking at the price action alone.
But if I only take longs that had increasing volume/vol spikes coming into them on the downslide (i.e. confirmation of support), and only take shorts that had teeny volme at the top of the run up (i.e. confirmation of resistance), the win rate is an astounding 72%.

Furthermore the Chaikin on the 60 m chart is useless for this application.
 
Busy day for me. Here's the NQ. I missed the awesome short at PDH. Since I was a little late (greater risk) I entered a smaller position some QQQ puts instead. Closed them up after the big support at S@ (not shown on the chart).

Basically, what i'm seeing in all issues: R is great on low vol, S is great on a vol spike and/or increasing vol leading into it. By great I mean I get a boost (about 10%) in probability for a successful trade (with my exit rules).
 

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I think Chaikin is useful (but not necessary) on the 5 min chart. I haven't done any quantitative studies with it yet in this time frame.
 
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