Agreed.. the daily spreadsheet will be a critical tool. The new one I posted today will let me look back at the specific trades, why I took them, and the results. Once I pile up a few dozen sheets I can make a decision on what to take live (none, one, or more).
Pete's Place
- Thread starter PetaDollar
- Start date
Agreed.. the daily spreadsheet will be a critical tool. The new one I posted today will let me look back at the specific trades, why I took them, and the results. Once I pile up a few dozen sheets I can make a decision on what to take live (none, one, or more).
Early Trader anticipates a short covering rally.
Noted pre-market was trending up, increasing vol on the upswings, with a s/r level at 90.5.
Bought 2 min bar breakout from first downmove, covered 0.5 pt behind 2 min bar for a loss of 2.0.
Noted pre-market was trending up, increasing vol on the upswings, with a s/r level at 90.5.
Bought 2 min bar breakout from first downmove, covered 0.5 pt behind 2 min bar for a loss of 2.0.
Observations
Ideal Traders
Early trader shorts [1]. Note he had to wait 15-20 min today.
Trend trader could get some shorts in after [3] if the hammer didn't scare him (it shouldn't, looked pretty sloppy on the 2 min). He could also have a good time on the way down after [6], but there the low volume keeps him extra cautious if not out altogether. Finally, a keen Trend Trader would be long after the low volume pullback in [10].
Reversal Trader could have a good try at [5] and [8]. Note each one of these longs had plenty of supporting evidence, not just one or two things...
Pete's Trades
Early Trader: Went for the long side as shown earlier. Good trade management!
Trend Trader: Had a lot of fun and collected some good points, 2-4 at a time, up until observation [8]. I missed that one in real time... actually I saw it after I opened my short, but chose to ignore it. THEN I made an even worse move getting short again... nuff said.
Critical for Trend Trader: Turn the aggression off at the appropriate time.
Reversal Trader: Clearly the most difficult time with this one... a little slow on the trigger.. scratched on the morning reversal after obs. [5], and was caught up on the wrong side after [8].
[1] Premarket high 90.5 challenged and rejected
[2] Selloff on increasing volume, hammer at premarket support
[3] Pullback on weak volume
[4] Selloff on increasing volume, three challeges to S2
[5] Fourth failed challenge to S2, hammer, higher low
[6] Supply at S1, uptrendline break
[7] Series of LL and LH on low volume
[8] Extremely low volume challenge to the lows, failed
[9] Downtrendline break and move up on increasing volume
[10] Last move down in decreasing volume, final rally on inc. vol.
Ideal Traders
Early trader shorts [1]. Note he had to wait 15-20 min today.
Trend trader could get some shorts in after [3] if the hammer didn't scare him (it shouldn't, looked pretty sloppy on the 2 min). He could also have a good time on the way down after [6], but there the low volume keeps him extra cautious if not out altogether. Finally, a keen Trend Trader would be long after the low volume pullback in [10].
Reversal Trader could have a good try at [5] and [8]. Note each one of these longs had plenty of supporting evidence, not just one or two things...
Pete's Trades
Early Trader: Went for the long side as shown earlier. Good trade management!
Trend Trader: Had a lot of fun and collected some good points, 2-4 at a time, up until observation [8]. I missed that one in real time... actually I saw it after I opened my short, but chose to ignore it. THEN I made an even worse move getting short again... nuff said.
Critical for Trend Trader: Turn the aggression off at the appropriate time.
Reversal Trader: Clearly the most difficult time with this one... a little slow on the trigger.. scratched on the morning reversal after obs. [5], and was caught up on the wrong side after [8].
My "Trend" entries today:
BS Ratio: 0.98 (no better than random)
Exit efficiency: 48%
Need about a week's worth of trades for the other methods before computing the stats.
BS Ratio: 0.98 (no better than random)
Exit efficiency: 48%
Need about a week's worth of trades for the other methods before computing the stats.
5 m chart was a little tough to read today, but the price/volume picture was clear on my longer term chart (11 min). Many times I'll look at this during the day when the 5 min is unclear.
Well for the first two days my "Trend Trader" entries didn't beat random entries. The seemingly hard part is you never know when (and if) that "pullback" will end. So I came up with a simple rule: enter on the breakout from the previous 5 min bar, in direction of the trend. It's only one day, but so far, so good: it cut the number of entries in half, and the ones I did take beat random entries. I'm pretty sure this is going to work because the rule also eliminated most of my "bad" Trend Trader entries from Monday and Tuesday.
Trend Trades today: 3
Total Risk: 3x3 = 9.0 pts
MFE: (capped at 2x risk per trade): 13.0 pts
BS ratio: 13/9 = 1.44
Trend Trades today: 3
Total Risk: 3x3 = 9.0 pts
MFE: (capped at 2x risk per trade): 13.0 pts
BS ratio: 13/9 = 1.44
I've been working on the "other way around" (mechanical exits, disc. entries) simply because:
-> once the dollars start flowing (in, or out..) it's harder for me to be objective (even if the entry was 'the system's' and not 'mine')
-> I get totally stressed out if I have to decide when to get out... whereas I'm pretty comfortable deciding on entry points
Anyway this was a major breakthrough for me, realizing you could apportion parts of your trading to on-the-fly discretion, and part to mechanical procedure, as you are ready.
One of my short term goals was to become selective enough to only desire a few quality trades a day.
Today was a landmark day because:
(1) Reversal Trader had two entries
(2) Trend Trader had three entries
(Of course, Early Trader had his usual single entry).
Today was a landmark day because:
(1) Reversal Trader had two entries
(2) Trend Trader had three entries
(Of course, Early Trader had his usual single entry).
Trend Trader obviously did well today. In the past my "trend" methods would run into bumps in the road even on days like today, but now that seems to be fixed. The fact that it did well both yesterday, and today, is very encouraging.
Even better, Reversal Trader only had one trade today for a small loss. We definitely ran into some resistance in the afternoon; i'd take that trade again any day...
Early Trader STINKS. He's going to need some big changes, or I might just toss him overboard.
Even better, Reversal Trader only had one trade today for a small loss. We definitely ran into some resistance in the afternoon; i'd take that trade again any day...
Early Trader STINKS. He's going to need some big changes, or I might just toss him overboard.