Pete's Place

Entry rule: for reversals, there needs to be a second failure. So that's a green light for longs in both places. I didn't try for it in the afternoon, like I said, because of the miserable failure (lack of demand) at R1.

I am against strict entry rules (but I am all for strict trade management and exit rules). That's why i'm having problems now, but in time I will learn to take only the "finest the tape has to offer". I am with Neill when he says we shouldn't try and make a system, instead we should learn to recognize supply and demand, and go with the flow.
 
So for the first entry, you'd enter on the second failure, or wait for the TL break?

Where would you take the second long?

Did you receive no short signals?
 
For the first one, marked on the chart, I wanted to enter with a trendline break. It blasted off so fast I missed it, so I think next time I have an entry planned like this i'll put in a stop order.

The second long does not exist. I was holding a short from 1443 at that point. I brought that formation up because it was a lot the same as the morning-- failures to move lower, on succesively lower volume. The difference was, at the point it was clear that the interest of the day was to sell.

As for the short signal, I saw that mid-day dry up in the 40's... I figured it might go either way so I just went long with a sell stop and reverse at 43, I made -3 on the long and +11.5 on the short. Too bad I had screwed up earlier with some indecision and some dubious entries.

Try again tommorow. I'm getting very tired of all the little setups, tommorow I may just break out of my funk and be patient all day. But, I never know what I'll do. It's a shame really.
 
Did really well today, because I decided I wanted to miss a few trades, rather than be in every move (and take the beatings which go along with it). Hell I only made four trades total today, on 3 scenarios.

Here's a chart of my best trade today. The context was that the buyers were in control today... note the decreasing volume on the selloff that preceeded this trade.
 

Attachments

Also got rid of my nas TICKS and a/d line charts today. Everything else besides price and vol seems secondary to me at this point. So i'm watching the 5 min chart, 2 min for entries, 11 min for "big picture" view. For the longer term charts I have some important numbers written down, but don't look at them during the day.
 
Holy cow, just looked back at what has happened since then.
Looks like the tables turned! There was a ton of volume in that selloff.
 
As I make progress in trading I find new psychological challenges. The first time I face a new one I usually fail. Today was one of those times. End result: undid the good work from yesterday. Oh well.

Phase one: pretty good trading, but five trades and five scratches. I was infuriated because I stopped three absolutely great winning entries. This was OK, I said to myself; I'll just revisit my initial trade management rules over the weekend.

Phase two: In the hour or so after walking away, I was adding up the points for the week in my head and realized I had made only a few points for the whole week. This further infuriated me, in light of how close I had come...

Phase three: Revenge trading! Something about revenge trading, my judgement is skewed going into it, and somehow never make the right decisions. When I go into the market, the only acceptable reason is that I have a good read of the current situation. Wanting to manufacture some winning trades is not a reason to trade. Fortunately I still followed my initial phase management and exit rules, so the damage wasn't too bad at all. The worst part is just knowing that once again, I screwed up.

Try again next week!
 
Another loss on the day. Another day of way too many entries.
And all of them sucked. Time for a big change... i'm going to pick one setup. If it has success over time i'll add another. But entries are definitely my weakness right now. I'm really happy with the trade management and exits. But my entries are just too loose, and enough is enough...

Two possibilities right now:

(1) "Trend bite". On a strongly polarized day, wait for a stab in the counter direction that conks out. The key to this one is having strict criterea for "strongly polarized day".

(2) "overextended market". It's very easy to spot, it just doesn't happen that often.

After entry, everything i'm doing now stays the same, 'cause it's real good. So I am keeping what works, and throwing away what doesn't.
 
Spent today observing price and vol, no trades. I want to learn about opportunity. That's where it's at, not in a "system". I have all the technical tools in the toolbox for getting in and getting out, i've posted them here in the past. The key is, when do those "soft spots" appear that I can really dig into, and consistently have better-than-random entries. Clear opportunities from today:

(1) Pre-market Res. at 17.5. The first hour unsuccessfully challenged this level three times. Shorting any of those challenges could yield a few points. But, still ok to sit back and see how things develop.

(2) 10:40 EST presented a fourth challenge to that level, this time on wimpier volume. Another great opportunity.

(3) By 11AM it's easy to see that selling and resistance is the story of the day so far. The biggest volume bars represent those things thus far.

(4) Right before lunch there are several challenges to 1412 from below; a lot of trades but no upward progress. Another short opportunity.

(5) FOMC - all kinds of shorts in 5 min then a short covering rally in the next 5 min. Once again 1412 is a good opportunity to short on the covering rally.

So, i'm not going to damn pour over charts looking for a setup and then look to find that setup each day. People make money that way, this is true, but that style is not for me. Instead my entry rules will be something like: "need three pieces of evidence and a s/r level that has already been tested twice". Something like that. We'll see.
 
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