long at 37
Pete's Place
- Thread starter PetaDollar
- Start date
tgt 1 46 tgt 2 53
I stopped it at 32.5
result: -4.5
result: -4.5
passing on this long signal b/c we broke thru significant support earlier. better to wait for a short today, methinks
The index is holding support but the a/d line is still tanking.
Not sure what that means, guess we'll see.
Not sure what that means, guess we'll see.
Hey Peter:
Declining A/D means pressure is building (Sell). Not expressed in the indexes until it hits a threshold.
By the way, when you anticipate a "give back" day like today, one thing that works to get you into a move early is to bracket the high and low of the first 45 min to 1 hour. Selling at that point would get you on the right side early enough to get some breathing room and hold on through the pullbacks. Good article on this subject in the recent "Active Trader" magazine (Linda Raschke by Mark Etzkorn).
Regards, Steve46
Declining A/D means pressure is building (Sell). Not expressed in the indexes until it hits a threshold.
By the way, when you anticipate a "give back" day like today, one thing that works to get you into a move early is to bracket the high and low of the first 45 min to 1 hour. Selling at that point would get you on the right side early enough to get some breathing room and hold on through the pullbacks. Good article on this subject in the recent "Active Trader" magazine (Linda Raschke by Mark Etzkorn).
Regards, Steve46
Glad I stayed away from the long side after it broke thru 36.
Never did get a decent short opportunity after that.
Yet another small loss on the day. Though, as yesterday, it didn't have to be that way... the right tools were in the toolbox..
Never did get a decent short opportunity after that.
Yet another small loss on the day. Though, as yesterday, it didn't have to be that way... the right tools were in the toolbox..
I had a couple of ideas for you. However, I'm not intimately familiar with your methodology, so they may or may not be applicable.
First, it seems that your Target 1 has become too large. Today it was 10 points on the first trade and 9 on the second. I think that's unrealistic. Personally, I would try to have Target 1 at 5 points or less and Target 2 at 10 points or less.
Also, once Target 1 is hit I would put a time limit on reaching Target 2, say 30 minutes.
After Target 1 is hit, moving the stop to breakeven (which should be below the initial entry?), may or may not be the best idea. I think breakeven on the second half would make more sense than on the entire trade. I would put the stop a half point above your initial entry (that way you get the profit from Target 1 plus you cover the commissions with Target 2). However, if the price comes back to within some distance of the entry (retraces more than half?), it would make sense to me to set Target 2 equal to Target 1.
Also, I'm not a big fan of trailing stops. Back in 2002, a 5 point trailing stop was your best friend, but now it just doesn't trend like that (with a large daily range) anymore. I've found that these days exiting on strength seems to work a lot better. Plus points aren't as easy to come by anymore, and giving back 3 to 5 points of profit is a big deal.
Also, I would exit 2/3 of the position at Target 1. If you're only trading 2 contracts, that won't help. But when you move up to 3 (or 30 for that matter) that's how I'd do it.
Finally, I think that you might find time stops to be more effective than price stops in certain situations. If something is obviously not working, don't wait for it to hit your stop, every point counts.
Hopefully these ideas will at least spur your thinking.
First, it seems that your Target 1 has become too large. Today it was 10 points on the first trade and 9 on the second. I think that's unrealistic. Personally, I would try to have Target 1 at 5 points or less and Target 2 at 10 points or less.
Also, once Target 1 is hit I would put a time limit on reaching Target 2, say 30 minutes.
After Target 1 is hit, moving the stop to breakeven (which should be below the initial entry?), may or may not be the best idea. I think breakeven on the second half would make more sense than on the entire trade. I would put the stop a half point above your initial entry (that way you get the profit from Target 1 plus you cover the commissions with Target 2). However, if the price comes back to within some distance of the entry (retraces more than half?), it would make sense to me to set Target 2 equal to Target 1.
Also, I'm not a big fan of trailing stops. Back in 2002, a 5 point trailing stop was your best friend, but now it just doesn't trend like that (with a large daily range) anymore. I've found that these days exiting on strength seems to work a lot better. Plus points aren't as easy to come by anymore, and giving back 3 to 5 points of profit is a big deal.
Also, I would exit 2/3 of the position at Target 1. If you're only trading 2 contracts, that won't help. But when you move up to 3 (or 30 for that matter) that's how I'd do it.
Finally, I think that you might find time stops to be more effective than price stops in certain situations. If something is obviously not working, don't wait for it to hit your stop, every point counts.
Hopefully these ideas will at least spur your thinking.
Thanks for the suggestions.
I will give your profit taking suggestions a shot.
One thing I have to leave in for the next couple weeks (just to get a base performance record out of it) is getting to breakeven with a trailing stop. I don't use it for profit taking, only during the initial phase, where my trading skills are weakest (where my emotions are strongest). Once I can learn to cut a loser before it hits my initial stop, without killing my winners, I can get rid of the initial trail. For now it's saving my ass!
I will give your profit taking suggestions a shot.
One thing I have to leave in for the next couple weeks (just to get a base performance record out of it) is getting to breakeven with a trailing stop. I don't use it for profit taking, only during the initial phase, where my trading skills are weakest (where my emotions are strongest). Once I can learn to cut a loser before it hits my initial stop, without killing my winners, I can get rid of the initial trail. For now it's saving my ass!
short at 25.5