Pete's Place

By the way, Murky told me his BS ratio for swing trading stocks was 4, which would beat the crap out of any daytrading method I know of. I'm still interested in hearing what everyone's BS ratio is. If you send me like 20-30 entry prices and times I can calculate it for you.
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

By the way, Murky told me his BS ratio for swing trading stocks was 4, which would beat the crap out of any daytrading method I know of. I'm still interested in hearing what everyone's BS ratio is. If you send me like 20-30 entry prices and times I can calculate it for you.
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Dude u are wierd. You are starting to drift....



--Mike
 
I tell you what, my trading has improved since I weeded out entry methods with a bad BS ratio. Next I'd like to find out how my entries compare to other discretionary traders (and even mechanical systems). P/L is the whole picture: entry, trade management, exit, money management. BS ratio is gauge of the entries only.
 
In the past week or so I have noticed a huge change (for the better) in my P/L, as a result of standardizing my exits. Before they were pretty emotional. Anyway, this study pretty much sums it up:

An experiment by psychologists Radcliffe and Klein shows the harmful consequences of unrealistic optimism. Study participants were asked to estimate the odds of experiencing an adverse outcome, in which an "objective" estimate of the actual probability was known. Unrealistic optimists underestimated the odds of the adverse event compared to realistic optimists. They also allowed their unrealistic optimism to bias their judgment.


Here's the really important part:

When presented with information regarding how they could reduce the probability of the adverse event, they did not review it closely, compared to realistic optimists. They did not show proper concern and did not take necessary steps to protect themselves from the adverse event.

So, this could screw up one's trading in two ways: (a) taking a dubious entry, or more subtly, (b) hanging onto a trade too long. For example, not "taking what the market gives you". I say, if a trade moves a small bit in your favor, and then you see some mixed signals, get smaller, if not out.

There is also another part to exits that's easier said than done. What happens when there is a decent profit, but no mixed signals, no bad signs, everything is looking peachy? I say, sit tight, perhaps move your stops up. Again, easier said than done, but it's pretty key for me.
 
Pete
I'm sure everyone wishes you well but it looks like you've got all the classic symptoms of Paralysis of Analysis. You're straying too far afield. You'll get back to price action eventually, I just hope you don't run out of money first.

Best regards,
JD
 
I don't know what you're talking about.
My results have never been better or more consistent.
I haven't been posting them, I have other priorities right now.
But i've been trading every day.

Pete
 
12/11/2003 8:57:52 AM - ** BOUGHT 2 NQ contract(s) @ 1401.5
12/11/2003 8:57:52 AM - Points total = 0
12/11/2003 8:58:03 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > trend touch II
12/11/2003 9:07:12 AM - ** SOLD 2 NQ contract(s) @ 1400
12/11/2003 9:07:12 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:12:44 AM - ** BOUGHT 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1396.5
12/11/2003 9:12:44 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:14:08 AM - ** BOUGHT 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1398
12/11/2003 9:14:08 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:26:32 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > s/r, anticipating, big up day, a/d forming bull flag
12/11/2003 9:31:38 AM - ** SOLD 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1408
12/11/2003 9:31:38 AM - Points total = 8.5
12/11/2003 9:36:51 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > legit exit now, holding ... homerun implications on 2000 tick..

holding 2nd long, "nap" exit (stops to b/e and take a nap)
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

In the past week or so I have noticed a huge change (for the better) in my P/L, as a result of standardizing my exits. Before they were pretty emotional.
More...

Welcome to the team my man! In my own trading strategy profit and loss tgts are 90% of the game. Once I learned that taking that 2-1 win/loss was the difference between profitability and treading water it was like finding "the holy grail".

Semper Fi
Chris.
 
Oorah devil.

Here's an update on today. I'm flat right now, will look for longs around 1404-1406

12/11/2003 8:57:52 AM - ** BOUGHT 2 NQ contract(s) @ 1401.5
12/11/2003 8:57:52 AM - Points total = 0
12/11/2003 8:58:03 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > trend touch II
12/11/2003 9:07:12 AM - ** SOLD 2 NQ contract(s) @ 1400
12/11/2003 9:07:12 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:12:44 AM - ** BOUGHT 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1396.5
12/11/2003 9:12:44 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:14:08 AM - ** BOUGHT 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1398
12/11/2003 9:14:08 AM - Points total = -3
12/11/2003 9:26:32 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > s/r, anticipating, big up day, a/d forming bull flag
12/11/2003 9:31:38 AM - ** SOLD 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1408
12/11/2003 9:31:38 AM - Points total = 8.5
12/11/2003 9:36:51 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > legit exit now, holding ... homerun implications on 2000 tick
12/11/2003 10:30:36 AM - ** BOUGHT 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1407.5
12/11/2003 10:30:36 AM - Points total = 8.5
12/11/2003 10:30:41 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > s/r
12/11/2003 10:32:12 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > s/r
12/11/2003 10:32:25 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > good support 1405-1406
12/11/2003 10:32:55 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > TICKS bouncing off zero
12/11/2003 11:04:25 AM - ** SOLD 1 contract(s) @ 1410.5 (Target hit)
12/11/2003 11:04:25 AM - Points total = 11.5
12/11/2003 11:06:08 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > a/d: lower than previous high-- close 1
12/11/2003 11:08:55 AM - ** SOLD 1 NQ contract(s) @ 1410
12/11/2003 11:08:55 AM - Points total = 23.5
12/11/2003 11:09:19 AM - ++ USER COMMENT > failure to breakout + a/d lower peak = i'm out
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

I'm flat right now, will look for longs around 1404-1406
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How bout that, eh? That trade is up another +10 already.
Too bad I was too much of a wuss to take it, already sitting
on a large profit for the day.

Me <---- Worst enemy

After being an emini loser for so long, it's hard to get used to something that works.
 
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