Peter Schiff: U.S. Rally Is Doomed, Gold Will Hit $5000
- Thread starter WallStWhizKid
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Quote from mr double:
yehp,some clients lost like 70% in their p0rtfolio
I love when people take these little time frames and say "see! he was wrong"
Buffet(the worlds greatest investor) also lost as much as schiffs clients during the same time period.
What people love to do is not look at how all the clients that stayed with him now have their money back, while everyone else's portfolio is still down.
Nah. I know its possible to make money from 2004 to 2009 in real estate. Obviously though you bought a fixer or from a distressed homeowner. I doubt you paid FMV. But did you really make money? I dont know your actual purchase price, but a 975k house means you must have paid about 48k at least in prop tax over 5 years. Not to mention missing out on another 250k in income over 5 years if you put it in an investment yielding 5%. Then of course the realtor takes out 6% from your sale which is 60k for every million, plus closing costs for purchase and sale which im guessing is another 60k total. (3% when you bought and 3% when you sold) Not to mention inflation ate about 16% of the value of that money over 5 years.
I dont know if you paid full cash or got a partial loan, but i will assume that you paid cash and didnt have any interest expense. So adding the figures above, if you didnt sell your house for $574,000 more than you bought it for, you actually lost money (in money you could've made in investments & buying power of that money) I know you will probably throw in the "well you are not counting what I would've had to pay in rent" Fair enough. But if you look, anywhere in the country, to rent a million dollar house it is cheaper to buy 98% of the time. You usually pay about 2/3 to half in rent of what you would if you buy a million (or multimillion) dollar house. Either way, you probably needed to sell for 40% more than you paid for it (assuming you didnt buy a house that was more than what you cashed out for with the last house)
So...did ya make money after all?
Or do i need to ask about HOA fees? 
hehe sorry to get all "maverick" real estate financing on you
You might want to watch his "Nasdaq will goto 500" call from September 2002 before you reply to this post.
If Schiff is so ultra-smart and calls the market's every move, then why is this idiot on CNBC pumping his books and ridiculous little brokerage firm peddling foreign penny stocks to dumbass retail investors @ 3% fees per transaction? Why does he leave it to Paulson and others to make a fortune from the markets?
Big difference between trading and making money in the markets while staying flexible or being a broken clock dogmatic perma bull/bear on bubble vision.
Your numbers aren't even close. LOL! There so far off It's laughable. And actually, come to think of it, and since you mentioned it, that's much like maverick would do
Quote from peilthetraveler:
Nah. I know its possible to make money from 2004 to 2009 in real estate. Obviously though you bought a fixer or from a distressed homeowner. I doubt you paid FMV. But did you really make money? I dont know your actual purchase price, but a 975k house means you must have paid about 48k at least in prop tax over 5 years. Not to mention missing out on another 250k in income over 5 years if you put it in an investment yielding 5%. Then of course the realtor takes out 6% from your sale which is 60k for every million, plus closing costs for purchase and sale which im guessing is another 60k total. (3% when you bought and 3% when you sold) Not to mention inflation ate about 16% of the value of that money over 5 years.
I dont know if you paid full cash or got a partial loan, but i will assume that you paid cash and didnt have any interest expense. So adding the figures above, if you didnt sell your house for $574,000 more than you bought it for, you actually lost money (in money you could've made in investments & buying power of that money) I know you will probably throw in the "well you are not counting what I would've had to pay in rent" Fair enough. But if you look, anywhere in the country, to rent a million dollar house it is cheaper to buy 98% of the time. You usually pay about 2/3 to half in rent of what you would if you buy a million (or multimillion) dollar house. Either way, you probably needed to sell for 40% more than you paid for it (assuming you didnt buy a house that was more than what you cashed out for with the last house)
So...did ya make money after all?
hehe sorry to get all "maverick" real estate financing on you
The first part seems a good prognostication. The top for S&P was 1500.00/2000 and 1500.00/2007 and that seals where S&P could at most be for a long long time to come. That's the chart.
For economic fundamentals, then look towards the rest of the world which have risen to produce goods - Brazil, Russia, India, China, Japan, Korea. The USA is not going to be able to compete in lower and middle technology goods. It is a situation defined by the worlds population growth and nothing that the US can do except to make fundamental economic restructuring and not saving dinosaurs like GM or add tariffs for tyres, etc. So what is the prospect of the US economy making profits within the next 10 years. Fictitious profits from financial engineering products would not be available unless it is assumed there are still takers around. Without profits, how could Peter Schiff be wrong on the U.S. Rally? If you imagine otherwise, then "ok, have fun with your trade then... The mind is also very imaginative".
As for Gold, ask Peter Schiff.
Its as close as i can get with the very little information i had to work with.
But forget the taxes, interest rates on what you could've made with that money, ect. No matter how much you paid, if you sold for 25% more than you paid, you still broke even in buying power. (19% if you sold without a realtor) Thats a mathematical certainty.
So tell us the numbers and lets see if I am right that i think you probably didnt make money.