Quote from Swan Noir:
Well ... you clearly like the fundamentals. To me it's just a stck that has broken down technically. Good luck on the calls.
Really, the sensible thing to do is wait for a while, let FB work the bugs out and find a low, and then try to Bottom Fish it.
As to Speculation/Price Guessing:
Who said $30? Who said $20?
This guy's talking $13.80!
MarketWatch:
May 25, 2012, 12:02 a.m. EDT
Facebookâs stock should trade for $13.80
Commentary: Hereâs a fair-price calculation for Facebook
Since Facebook FB is most often compared to Google GOOG, letâs assume that its price-to-sales ratio in five years will be just as high as Googleâs is currently: 5.51-to-1. You could argue that this is an overly generous assumption, of course. But it nevertheless means Facebookâs market cap in five years will be just $63.8 billion â 30% less than where it stands today.
Assuming that the total number of its shares stays constant, that works out to a price per share of just $23.26 â in contrast to its recent closing price of $33.03.
Ouch.
Actually, however, the news is even worse: No one is going to invest in Facebook shares today if its price will be 30% lower in five years. So, in order to entice someone to invest in it today, Facebook needs to offer a handsome return. Assuming that its five-year return is equal to the stock marketâs long-term average return of 11% annualized, Facebook shares currently would need to be trading at just $13.80.
Double ouch.
