Peter Brandt, ET fav: 'H&S appearing in many equity names'

[nickynoes]

What is the win % on a H&S pattern. Probably not much better than 50%. So not very good at predicting market direction much better than a coin a flip

The point of any signal should be to get a good risk to reward setup. Even if the win rate is 50% then you will still make money in the long run.

So that twitter post is pretty meaning less as a market direction prediction.

You contradict yourself, having +50% win rate does not guarantee a good risk reward setup. If you can trade H&S with an average of 4R per win and 30% win chance you will be proftiable trading that pattern.

 

[southall]

You contradict yourself, having +50% win rate does not guarantee a good risk reward setup. If you can trade H&S with an average of 4R per win and 30% win chance you will be proftiable trading that pattern.

I was making the point that TA signals are not good market direction calls, not much better than random coin flip.

But as trading signals they can be better than a coin flip if they offer good risk to reward setups.

 

[nickynoes]

I was making the point that TA signals are not good market direction calls, not much better than random coin flip.

But as trading signals they can be better than a coin flip if they offer good risk to reward setups.

I understand what you mean, but calling market direction is not what trading is about. And probably not what Peter Brandt is interested in doing.

Also define what calling market direction means to you, do you mean long or short term? How much does price have to move one way before price has taken a direction?

 

[Pekelo]

So have we broken out of the H&S already?

 

[nickynoes]

So have we broken out of the H&S already?

I think we might see before the end of the day in the S&P

 

[Pekelo]

So out of 5000 stocks he found 4 with H&S and he thinks that is significant? Not to mention even he said in the Tweeter response the S&P didn't have a H&S and if it had today we already have broken out of it.

So all in all this thread has ran its usefulness... Predictive value: zero.

 

[Saltynuts]

When it comes to TA - if you want is done right you need to learn how to do it for yourself.

Brandt is a noob when it comes to stocks. LULU was consolidating near highs after its big break-away gap. These are the kind of shorts novices get destroyed on. LULU was up >3% today a hair away from new highs.

Classic chart trading 101 - first you look at the leaders - FANG will do. Any potential H&S top was negated today by a close above the right shoulder. In fact the rally over the right shoulder indicates a great deal of strength.

FANG - consolidated chart.
View attachment 188226

Excellent. Note to self - when Peter Brandt speaks, do NOT listen haha. Dang he clowned himself bad.

 

[treeman]

What is the win % on a H&S pattern. Probably not much better than 50%. So not very good at predicting market direction much better than a coin a flip

About 66% if price closes below the neckline. That hasn’t happened.