Perfect Shorting Opportunity
- Thread starter EMRGLOBAL
- Start date
Are you offering an ironclad guarantee?
For swing traders, Friday's close confirms Monday's break out of the range high (which was followed by a 2nd and 3rd confirmation of previous resistance - ES 1190 - as new support). There's airspace from here to at least 1250.
I'm curious why you'd start a short here in no man's land (short-wise). Wouldn't it make more sense to start building a short around 1250 if it resists, or breaks out and fails, or at least wait to see if this current breakout fails?
I'm curious why you'd start a short here in no man's land (short-wise). Wouldn't it make more sense to start building a short around 1250 if it resists, or breaks out and fails, or at least wait to see if this current breakout fails?
OK, guys, play nice...even though EMR and I have little in common politically, I respect him (assumption) as a trader and I want to evaluate market analyses different from my straight up PA/TA stuff.
In the range, I felt there were clean fade zones (and I've been swing trading stocks off them), but with this breakout-in-progress, I don't see the current PA indicating a perfect shorting opportunity. However, fundamentally Europe is a mess and the market has an uninterrupted history of "shoot first, question later", so I'm assuming EMR may have experience-based knowledge that I lack (I've only been involved with trading for a little over 3 1/2 years).
Disclosure: I have lots of swing long positions
In the range, I felt there were clean fade zones (and I've been swing trading stocks off them), but with this breakout-in-progress, I don't see the current PA indicating a perfect shorting opportunity. However, fundamentally Europe is a mess and the market has an uninterrupted history of "shoot first, question later", so I'm assuming EMR may have experience-based knowledge that I lack (I've only been involved with trading for a little over 3 1/2 years).
Disclosure: I have lots of swing long positions
Doesn't anyone understand the psychology of this market, just a month ago everyone thought it was going to continue to drop further, didn't happen... now the mentality is that this market can only go up. This market will break to the downside just like it broke to the upside and shake everyone out once it sells off....everyone always believes the market is going to take off without them, this is never the case with these markets, buy and hold is done with. You will be able to buy the SPX back under a 1000 sometime in the next 12-18 months, there is absolutely no need to chase this market. Look at those who chased the Nasdaq all the way to 5000....its still 50% off from its highs from 10 years ago and doesn't look to be breaking out anytime soon. And so what if the SPX breaks new highs above 1600, by that point there will be major market bubbles everywhere, then the drop will come and all those holding out for SPX 2000 will be lost while those who had patience will be buying back the SPX under 1000 
Dont fall for this rally, its only 4 weeks old and up over 12%, I call that a bear market rally
Dont fall for this rally, its only 4 weeks old and up over 12%, I call that a bear market rally
Quote from S2007S:
Doesn't anyone understand the psychology of this market, just a month ago everyone thought it was going to continue to drop further, didn't happen... now the mentality is that this market can only go up. This market will break to the downside just like it broke to the upside and shake everyone out once it sells off....everyone always believes the market is going to take off without them, this is never the case with these markets, buy and hold is done with. You will be able to buy the SPX back under a 1000 sometime in the next 12-18 months, there is absolutely no need to chase this market. Look at those who chased the Nasdaq all the way to 5000....its still 50% off from its highs from 10 years ago and doesn't look to be breaking out anytime soon. And so what if the SPX breaks new highs above 1600, by that point there will be major market bubbles everywhere, then the drop will come and all those holding out for SPX 2000 will be lost while those who had patience will be buying back the SPX under 1000
Dont fall for this rally, its only 4 weeks old and up over 12%, I call that a bear market rally
SERIOUSLY.
That's what I said 2 months ago when everyone was freaking out.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=225023