i have hard time to believe that some stupid indicator can foresee the market outcome a year away.
this is what i think. historically, the market grows by ~10%. so it is trivial to find year-long stretches that >=+10%. stretches with +20% are much more rare, but still there must be plenty of those in the last 40 years. so, if one were to go through a bunch of indicators he would not have trouble finding one that "works" on a subset of those +20% stretches.
does not mean the market can't do +20% this time...
this is what i think. historically, the market grows by ~10%. so it is trivial to find year-long stretches that >=+10%. stretches with +20% are much more rare, but still there must be plenty of those in the last 40 years. so, if one were to go through a bunch of indicators he would not have trouble finding one that "works" on a subset of those +20% stretches.
does not mean the market can't do +20% this time...