Perfect forecast of SP500 since 2 months

Fortuna

Your correlation is interesting as it is your point of using it as an indicator to confirm or not certain positions.

IMHO Your position is right, beside the correlate movements, since we should expect a little pull up in the next few days.

Than Macro & AT show a perfect plunge after or around July The 7Th.

Just a question : why not data mining in depth and what kind of parameters did you used to pick up the 1980?
 
quotes from fortuna :

I searched for the most auto correlated SPX data with the last 82 days and found the period coming from august 1980

Since 2 months it has perfectly shown the way

We will test it today to see if SP500 makes a 3 - 5% move up in the next week

Now the period 1980 is quite similar than now

stocks made a bear market rallye before plunging until august 1982 (start of the long bull market)
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Is the interest rate senario the same now as it was then? What about the US Dollar?
 
Quote from CalTrader:



My data analysis, while not exactly agreeing with yours, points to similar indicators. There are several similarities in recent data as compared with the time period you mention. The interest rate environment is a big wildcard and my analysis does not show that the US Economy is structurally as weak as it was in the early 80's .... so .... we may not see an exact replay of the late summer 80's conditions IMHO.
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Just a thought for "your analysis"...
In '80, rates were high as was inflation. (We found out that could be easily corrected... Volker) BUT, people had more money, had consumed less of their credit capacity, had made some interest on their cash, had pent-up demand for houses and cars, interest rates had "a long way to fall to provide stimulus for spending".

All very much different from now. The argument goes better that the economy was WAY healthier in '80, and is now "structually" on life support.
 
Please that everyone propagates that chart

then it will be even more efficient

the reflexive theory of Soros

There are many similitudes with 1980 (oil crisis) , of course interest rates were higher , it was a period of stagflation and we do not have any more the Inflation, so things should be more volatile today
 
Quote from fortuna:

I searched for the most auto correlated SPX data with the last 82 days and found the period coming from august 1980

Since 2 months it has perfectly shown the way

We will test it today to see if SP500 makes a 3 - 5% move up in the next week
More...

This is precisely what ET needs more of, thank you. I am of course, a bit critical (as all traders should be), but I will watch with interest.

Of course, I am referring to the posts by the author of this thread, not the spam in the previous post by MarketMariner.
 
Quote from MarketMariner:

Its not spam...Its a free report i am sharing at what i look for every day..the folks listed now give me very positive feedback..just helping out.
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I encourage you to post your free report that you'd like to share. Got some suggestions for you.

First post them all in one thread - makes it easier for folks to discuss your reports and find the latest one. If somebody starts posting a new thread for each day it gets pretty confusing. Trading is probably a good forum to put the thread in.

Second. . . rats. I forget what my second suggestion was.

Third, charts can help make your point.

Fourth, ignore the nitwits. :D Don't respond to them. I've never really understood what it is they get from their posts and subsequent responses, but it seems that the common wisdom of ignoring them reduces their activity - a lot like depriving them of food and water.

Finally, if you can get a good discussion going then you will likely find yourself thinking harder about your methods used in making your report. And, that will make your report better, which will make your trading more successful, which will make you more money and happier to boot.

How can you go wrong with that? :cool:
 
What do you take us for? Perhaps you believe that we were borned yesterday.

This is a frickin marketing ploy .... this is spam .. End of story. So let me see.. the topic was about weekly autocorrelation and prediction. ... all of a sudden we get Mr.Helper advocating intraday entry and exit ....


"Just helping out" ... Bullsh*t ... You're website is all about selling products.

Your credibility has been shot, Read the following, Website:
http://www.marketmariner.com/pages/3/index.htm

Taken from your website:
"None of the techniques use any technical studies..."

"You get ....

* 2 Highly reliable techniques that use the open
* Bar Continuity
* 8 Bar signal
* Gaps and Split techniques
* Channel Projector (can predict possible high or low of day)
* 4 Point movement"

Oxymoronic???
 
I am just presenting the TRUTH. Your intention is obvious. The oxymoronic nature of your statement couple with the incongruous placement of INTRADAY strategy in a WEEKLY discussion is more than enough proof.

My attitude is not bad it just susceptible and vehement at the blatant sign of advertisement. What you are setting up is a FREE report leading to an eventual sale, i.e. Exposure. You pull the same stunt in another discussion topic: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19354&perpage=6&pagenumber=2
Maybe its not my attitude you should be concerned about but your marketing ploy.


Answer me this:
1.Why are you offering this FREE? Clearly you put in SOME effort.
2. Second, why place the OFFER in this discussion as opposed to an ES intraday topic?
3. If your intention is to HELP people (which I doubt highly)...Why not posted in a journal as opposed to an email-based distribution? Clearly a journal would reach more people..
4. On your website, you offered the same service for a contingent $39. (See link in previous post) Why offer it free? Why so generous? Why Elitetraders?

If you can answer these questions sufficiently I'll take back the SPAM part.
:) Latez

Quote from MarketMariner:

The report i send is free. Nothing is for sale in it..no leads to my site or anything. you probably could learn something with your attitude..Its not a good one :)
Peace!
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