Perelman-Shortie Uncertainty Suggests Red Day Today
- Thread starter shortie
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I think you are an intelligent person, but we have some different viewpoints which is good in my point of view.
1. Older people seem to move to cheaper places (better living conditions, sunny, lower medical costs, cheap maids, etc). So older means more people moving out of europe.
2. The USA has a niche which is internet businesses. Europe niches are being eaten by China (industrial), and India (software). As for arm sales you have new comers such as Brasil, Iran, etc.
3. The only edge I see in Europe is political connections due to UN veto seats and air force military, but that is risky if UN is restructured. You could already see pressures from Brazil, Turkey, and India to change things.
On the military front, France seem to understand they have to bomb to earn later, but they do not seem to understand that the cost may be higher and the earning might be costlier than they think. That is why there is an air involvement in Libya but no ground invasion (to reduce cost of the war, and improve the margin for the booty).
But if Lybian/others understand the game of natural resources, what prevent the enemies from increasing the cost of the natural resources, and make France's bet a losing one?
4. As for Turkey, geographically they are in europe, but as Turkish leader said they are not viewed as europeans because euro zone is a christian club. He is right. The last couple years have seen things change: the debt of Turkey is lower risk than the debt of a number of European countries, when only few years before it was the exact opposite. Lenders are smart people and bet on the future: they give money to those who do not need money, and do not give it to those who need it.
1. Check out the statistics for how many core EU residents retire to non-EU countries (there is some move from core to non-core but it's still not a ton for most countries).
2. How big is this "internet business" you speak of as a percentage of US GDP? You speak of it as if it determines the overall success of the USA in any way which is just not the case. The core business of the US and Europe is knowledge and we have plenty of great tech and financial companies as well, next to your standard stuff. You don't hear as much about them because they mainly produce non-consumer tech like airplanes, microchips and whatever.
3. Hell yeah we own you bitchezzz.
3.1 It's called supply & demand that would prevent them from increasing these prices. It's very simple, if oil goes above say $120-$130 a barrel and stays there, we will see alternative sources of energy becoming cost-effective real real soon. Nobody wants that.
4. I really still don't see what Turkey has to do with anything but the day they join the EU is the day it ends and I really see it having a snowball's chance in hell of happening.
Really all these arguments are pretty much nonsense and I will repeat, stock valuations (repeat: VALUATIONS, so that is P/E and what have you) have nothing to do with fundamentals but with sentiment and the only way for price to outperform is to have faster growing valuation and/or faster growing fundamentals. I'm not arguing the fundamentals are going to be much better at all, although they might be.
2. Internet businesses: google, amazon, apples, etc.
3.1. The point is not that. You seem to think producing countries control price. That is bull crap, but my point is different. Ask the Americans why the investment in Iraq did not pay? It is because the civil war/resistance is costing the US more than the US can get out of it. Ask the americans about Aghanistan. US understood, and are intelligent to negotiate in Afghanistan. Obama is smart!
In Lybia Germans were smart not to join, but the french headed by an idiot president would understand once their money would not get them enough war benefits.
In Imperial times, India, africa, arabia,etc had a population smaller compared to Europe. The ratio is now reversed.
One cannot win the spoil of wars because of the population ratios.
4. I doubt that Turkey would even join if europe would offer it, now that they see what is happening.
Euro zone is likely to disintegrate. It was a union based on hype.
Other point: I wonder what would happen to europe if deflation were to hit it due to austerity, and what would happen to it if inflation would hit if they eur heads south? Either scenario is not good.
3.1. The point is not that. You seem to think producing countries control price. That is bull crap, but my point is different. Ask the Americans why the investment in Iraq did not pay? It is because the civil war/resistance is costing the US more than the US can get out of it. Ask the americans about Aghanistan. US understood, and are intelligent to negotiate in Afghanistan. Obama is smart!
In Lybia Germans were smart not to join, but the french headed by an idiot president would understand once their money would not get them enough war benefits.
In Imperial times, India, africa, arabia,etc had a population smaller compared to Europe. The ratio is now reversed.
One cannot win the spoil of wars because of the population ratios.
4. I doubt that Turkey would even join if europe would offer it, now that they see what is happening.
Euro zone is likely to disintegrate. It was a union based on hype.
Other point: I wonder what would happen to europe if deflation were to hit it due to austerity, and what would happen to it if inflation would hit if they eur heads south? Either scenario is not good.
I'm dead serious about the contest with Tsing Tao, oh brother you cannot imagine how serious - et tu Brute? I thought we was friends because you only called me an ass and an idiot - kind of mild - I was expecting worse, Brutus.
I consider 10k just a minimal part of inexpensive tuition in the GAME OF THE MARKETS.
But once again the shallowness of ET-ers who cannot, will not, think AHEAD, is staggering.
Think of the towering benefits to us all if Tsing Tao agreed to the LIVE contest ....
It would clear up years and years and years of SHIT re: worthless traders playing video games, because any newbie could challenge anyone else to a live trading contest to prove his STATUS at ET. We would all know within a few months or perhaps a year who the worthwhile individuals are to follow or learn from or emulate.
And there are no guarantees, I could lose to Tsing Tao but I am fully willing and able to compete and its a good thing to do so.
The stigma of the INTERNET is neutralized by going thru' BARON, a trusted person. Besides there would be some other simple documents drawn up.
The shenanigans at ET would come to an end RAPIDLY.
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By the way if you hadn't noticed, the ET Sponsors use the Internet to make money and gain clients, so do millions of others.
Tsing Tao,
Just in case you are peeping thru' the Ignore .....
please reconsider and do the LIVE contest with me.
I promise I can set it all up quite easily so you need do nothing except sign the documents FEDEX-ed to you.
I'll throw in this too ....
If you win I will pay for a week's holiday for yourself and significant other to an Island of your choice, 1st class airfare, 5-star hotel, food and transfers all included.
If I win I waive this feature so you would owe me no holiday, only the 10k cash.
Just in case you are peeping thru' the Ignore .....
please reconsider and do the LIVE contest with me.
I promise I can set it all up quite easily so you need do nothing except sign the documents FEDEX-ed to you.
I'll throw in this too ....
If you win I will pay for a week's holiday for yourself and significant other to an Island of your choice, 1st class airfare, 5-star hotel, food and transfers all included.
If I win I waive this feature so you would owe me no holiday, only the 10k cash.