People Underestimate Randomness In This Profession

dartmus · Oct 27, 2015

His trading success came from his edge, not randomness. Price traded between the ranges he predicted. His ability to predict that range was his edge. Definitely non-random price movement, or he would have failed.

Turveyd · Oct 28, 2015

dratsum said:
His trading success came from his edge, not randomness. Price traded between the ranges he predicted. His ability to predict that range was his edge. Definitely non-random price movement, or he would have failed.

Yep, maybe not being that bright helps ?? we'd over think it, wonder / question the range holding then it did and we missed the entry, then we'd make a stupid trade and lose instead.

Not saying, he's dumb cause he's covered in tatoo's and a meat head, but he's no rocket scientist!

NoDoji · Oct 28, 2015

dratsum said:
Price traded between the ranges he predicted. His ability to predict that range was his edge.

Two thumbs up!

Speaking of edge, I'd like to take a moment here to thank all the traders who try to pick tops/bottoms in strong trends. Your liquidity just about guarantees a fill on my limit orders every time.

marketsurfer · Oct 28, 2015

Laissez Faire said:
I agree with the essence of your message. If you read for example Market Wizards, several of the guys did a 'bet the farm' high risk trade and used that as their stepping stone into the major leagues.

They all do, not some ALL-- its one of two ways-- bet the farm or meet someone already where you want to be and have them mentor you.

Wall Street respects risk takers, Wall Street has no respect for grinders and scared money. The evidence is everywhere that this is true.

surf

marketsurfer · Oct 28, 2015

dratsum said:
His trading success came from his edge, not randomness. Price traded between the ranges he predicted. His ability to predict that range was his edge. Definitely non-random price movement, or he would have failed.

LOL--- you don't have a clue. May i suggest listening and learning rather than using the language translator to post here?

marketsurfer · Oct 28, 2015

Turveyd said:
Yep, maybe not being that bright helps ?? we'd over think it, wonder / question the range holding then it did and we missed the entry, then we'd make a stupid trade and lose instead.

Not saying, he's dumb cause he's covered in tatoo's and a meat head, but he's no rocket scientist!

I don't think its healthy to be that large. Hopefully he doesn't end up like this guy-- dead before 50

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Warrior

Laissez Faire · Oct 28, 2015

marketsurfer said:
They all do, not some ALL-- its one of two ways-- bet the farm or meet someone already where you want to be and have them mentor you.

Wall Street respects risk takers, Wall Street has no respect for grinders and scared money. The evidence is everywhere that this is true.

surf

Nope. Not all of them. Did you read the books?

marketsurfer · Oct 28, 2015

Laissez Faire said:
Nope. Not all of them. Did you read the books?

yep, i know a few of those guys. But you are right, I have not read the books for a long time--- Name one that made it without hooking up with a superior/wealthier partner or getting fortunate with a big bet. I will be happy to stand corrected on this. thanks, surf

Laissez Faire · Oct 28, 2015

marketsurfer said:
yep, i know a few of those guys. But you are right, I have not read the books for a long time--- Name one that made it without hooking up with a superior/wealthier partner or getting fortunate with a big bet. I will be happy to stand corrected on this. thanks, surf

It's been a while myself, but the first one that comes to mind is of course Marty Schwartz. If you don't know, he used technical analysis exclusively.

Here's a nice quote for you:

Did you make a complete transition from fundamental to technical analysis?

Absolutely.I always laugh at people who say, “I’ve never met a rich technician.” I love that! It is such an arrogant, nonsensical response. I used fundamentals for nine years and got rich as a technician.

Source: http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/curated-interview-with-marty-schwartz-from-market-wizards/

marketsurfer · Oct 28, 2015

Laissez Faire said:
It's been a while myself, but the first one that comes to mind is of course Marty Schwartz. If you don't know, he used technical analysis exclusively.

Here's a nice quote for you:

Source: http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/curated-interview-with-marty-schwartz-from-market-wizards/

Ok. But that was n the 1970's right?

surf