Don't you think with these vicious sell offs, you had enough opportunity to buy ?
People are positioned badly again ahead of Fed
- Thread starter detective
- Start date
Don't you think with these vicious sell offs, you had enough opportunity to buy ?
I agree on all accounts. The US federal reserve isn't stupid, they're the most powerful lending source in the world and they know that. They did there job last week by showing that they are prepared to step in and provide assistance as needed, and will continue to so. I see a .25 or .5 bps cut, but also almost as important as the cut is the speech where Ben makes it clear that he is willing to step in when required.
Lets see how brutal the 1st quarter #s are before we really decide to tank.
Vicious? LOL. Why on earth would you use that adjective to describe what's been going on.
The selling is warranted.
What are you talking about? We've rallied off the lows. Market's in a bearish sentiment and will likely see downward pressure on anything under 50bps which is most likely.
The whole idea that the Fed is supposed to come out and save the day has me completely lost.
Why can't people take responsibility for their losses?!
Firstly, under 50bps is NOT most likely.
You need to seriously try to go do some research in order to understand how measures of likeliness are determined.
It will open your eyes. There are plenty of objective expectations measures showing a VERY HIGH likeliness of 50bps tomorrow. Go through my old posts, I've rarely been wrong on betting on the side of the market's expectations for a rate change. Short term fed funds rate changes are one of the few predictable numbers that exist in the market IMO.
Markets do not tend to follow sentiment. Rather, they move contrary to extremes.
As you mentioned, the market sentiment has been extremely bearish.
Time and time, the markets have proven that the correct position to take has been the opposite of extreme sentiment. Without even knowing about the 75bps cut, you could have used that knowledge to place your bet on the proper side (contrary to the masses).
It takes a long while to wash out those kind of bearish extremes. Last I checked AAII is still at 58% bears, the types of numbers you see at intermediate to long term bottoms.
Anything the FED says at this point is just an excuse for the market to move more extremely in the direction it is likely to move, which in IMHO is up.
Bears are wishing for no cut, in order to add hope to their short positions. Unfortunately, for them, it likely won't happen.
Well shit, if that's the case why would you not take the opposite side of your "sure bet" on 50bps?! You just contradicted yourself.
Com'on man, get a fuckin clue. Market doesn't need a rate cut. They need to quite crying and send this into a recession to clean the garbage out.
another 500 point day in either direction would suit me just fine
tremendous opportunity to learn and maybe make a few bucks
any position ahead of the Fed, held into a fed is a calculated Risk.
I shorted yesterdays close (small) and shorted the same instruments again today into the close (last 5 Mins).
I am in the red but my average in is "excellent" and I will be positioned proper for a sell off.
This is a Risk play, very limited hedge (as it eats up capital) and light enough to get out, without being killed.
If the trade works out (Second up day today, very choppy and expect up and volatile tomorrow) a first wave down may create a scratch, however the second and third wave will bring in serious profits if the market gives back the gains so far.
Fed is a non-factor in my trade. I expect wipsaw action with price movement up slightly on close but a serious sell off following some noise for a few days.
GenFRANCE is seen as widening in their "Arm's of Reach to US banks/brokers, bad news is still out their, Home Starts, Inflation, etc. Nothing has changed in the current condition of the economy, even with Feds and GOV stimls. package.
I shorted yesterdays close (small) and shorted the same instruments again today into the close (last 5 Mins).
I am in the red but my average in is "excellent" and I will be positioned proper for a sell off.
This is a Risk play, very limited hedge (as it eats up capital) and light enough to get out, without being killed.
If the trade works out (Second up day today, very choppy and expect up and volatile tomorrow) a first wave down may create a scratch, however the second and third wave will bring in serious profits if the market gives back the gains so far.
Fed is a non-factor in my trade. I expect wipsaw action with price movement up slightly on close but a serious sell off following some noise for a few days.
GenFRANCE is seen as widening in their "Arm's of Reach to US banks/brokers, bad news is still out their, Home Starts, Inflation, etc. Nothing has changed in the current condition of the economy, even with Feds and GOV stimls. package.