https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/us/politics/bolton-trump-north-korea.html
Bolton Criticizes Trump’s Courtship of North Korea
Without mentioning Mr. Trump by name,
Mr. Bolton said he wanted to “speak in unvarnished terms about the threat posed by North Korea,” and made it clear that he thought the president’s outreach to Mr. Kim had benefited only one side. And while Mr. Trump has made a deal with Mr. Kim one of his signature
foreign policy goals, Mr. Bolton asserted that there had been no gains with his approach.
“The strategic decision Kim Jong-un is operating through is that he will do whatever he can to keep a deliverable nuclear weapons capability and to develop and enhance it further,” Mr. Bolton said during an appearance at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Under current circumstances, he will never give up the nuclear weapons voluntarily.”
Stopping nuclear proliferation in the Korean Peninsula is where the United States needs “to focus our attention,” Mr. Bolton said, “not can we get another summit with Kim Jong-un or what the state of staff-level negotiations are to achieve a commitment from North Korea it will never honor.”
What are our practical options with North Korea? Let’s break it down:
1. North Korea will never give up their nuclear weapons.
Option 1 - We recognize this is as their prerogative and accept it. Probable result - Increased geopolitical stability with a small long term risk of accidental launch or adverse regime change that results in a detonation of a nuclear weapon.
Option 2 - North Korea having nuclear weapons is considered unacceptable and we decide to take their nuclear weapons away. Probable result - A small nuclear war involving other weapons of mass destruction such as biological and chemical weapons causing significant casualties on at least two continents. Possibility of escalation involving more powerful countries. Heavy casualties in China, North Korea, and South Korea is all but certain.
2. North Korea will give up their nuclear weapons.
Option 1 - We ask nicely, but don’t offer Kim any guarantees. Guaranteed result - Kim tells us to pound sand. Duh.
Option 2 - We off Kim guarantees regarding his position of power and massive economic incentives involving other key players such as China, including maybe European countries and Japan. My perception is the North Korean people are durable and could be particularly productive if the had the opportunity. North Korea is well situated next to the productive capacity of China, the Resources of Russia, and the craftsmanship of the Japanese. Combined with US management know how, this deal could be a major win for almost everybody. If much of the world is now able to redirect resources from their war machines and instead put those resources toward our environment, every life form on this planet wins. North Korea is also near major established shipping routes. Probable result - World peace, a better environment, and better economic opportunities for many.
What would be your choice?