I would like to apologize to the readers of this journal. Recently I have made some highly accurate Bitcoin price predictions but they were posted in the Bitcoin price thread between post #811 and #1005.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-96
I was kind of live blogging as price moved and pop corn crunched because that seemed to be the appropriate place.
The reason I am going to repost some of them here isn't because I am incredibly modest (although you know I am), but because I used TA to predict the price and I am going to reference this post in the future anytime somebody is bitching about technical analysis. I will even explain why I made those predictions:
So I started out on Monday morning with this (all price references are from Bitstamp):
I think the safe bet here is to cash out and put a buy order in at 12K. I expect a 40-50% sell off in the next 10 weeks.
Price was still between 18-19K at this time, most people expecting further upward movement. The reason for this prediction was obvious, price went vertical. Anytime when a stock goes vertical without a good reason, it has to come down. Just check SQ's price action, Bitcoin will follow that.
OK, I gave myself quite a bit of a wiggle room putting a 10 weeks frame on this one, but you can never know the madness of the people or when Charlie Lee decides to sell his coins. Nevertheless, by Friday morning price bottomed at 11160. So if you were a hodler and listened to me, you should be owning 30% more coins then a week before.
Thursday evening when I was enjoying the shitstorm and watching the sell off, I posted this:
Price is going to bounce from here (buy 13-13.5K ) for 2-3 days, then return to the scheduled sell off.
I forgot what time frame I was using, because I kept switching them. But the bounce coming seemed obvious. Sure enough there was a double bottom around 13300 and it bounced up to 15K before returning to the sell off.
I went to sleep after that but on Friday morning when price penetrated my 12K expectation, it also reached the lower BB on the daily chart so I called for a bottom:
The lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart will catch it...
It is actually amazing how well TA works on cryptos.
Friday around 9 am:
Now it is at 11.4K a very good buy zone again. At least 2K bounce from here...
In a few short hours it was back to 14K, and more....
Again, I didn't just predict, I also explained it earlier:
Here is the daily chart I am looking at with BB. At 12K we still have 1K to go to reach the lower BB where I expect a serious bounce. It usually comes back to the SMA what is around 15.7K
It doesn't always go down to the BB and sometimes it penetrates it, but around there is a good place to go long.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd
So far the high after the 11 160 bottom has been 15 300, very close to my expected 15.7K posted prediction.
It has been fun times. TA specially when there is not much fundamental value, rules!
One note about BBs, when price is far from it, it is hard to estimate the exact value where price and the band will meet because the band constantly moves depending on the price. That is why earlier I called for 12K then I adjusted it lower when price got much closer to it.
