Pekelo Plays the Ponies

Spooz Top 2 said:
I think the OP wanted to know how long you`ve been trading "live"?
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I don't know which part wasn't clear, so I just repeat the answer, on and off since 2005. By the way, my prediction's probability to get fulfilled has nothing to do if I bet on it or not. But let's wait until the 10th (or at least the 5th) call, before we start to throw out judgements, shall we?
If I had 8 bad calls out of 10, it won't matter if I had money behind them or not, agree?
 
Pekelo said:
I don't know which part wasn't clear, so I just repeat the answer, on and off since 2005. By the way, my prediction's probability to get fulfilled has nothing to do if I bet on it or not. But let's wait until the 10th (or at least the 5th) call, before we start to throw out judgements, shall we?
If I had 8 bad calls out of 10, it won't matter if I had money behind them or not, agree?
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Judge not.. lest ye be judged!

I respect anyone that has the courage to put a live call out there.. & then stand by it....regardless of performance!
So don`t worry about that, whatsoever... so good luck.

I remember you stating in posts that you did not trade real capital going back a few years.. that`s all... it actually does have a profound affect on ones trading. fyi

Regardless, looking forward to it & I commend you for putting it out there. GL
 
Spooz Top 2 said:
that you did not trade real capital going back a few years..
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That was probably one of those off years. As mentioned in the OP, there are only 2 relevant questions for any reader of the PPP:

1. Is this guy as good as he thinks he is?
2. If so, how can I profit from it?

Everything else is baloney... :)

Well, it looks like the down move finally started, so anyone holding short should be in the money.
 
Got a question for the trading aspect of it, if you wish to answer it.

Why the choice of a conservative spread ? You are expecting a "way more drop" and only a 2 week window..a capped small profit & volatility neutralised spread would be the last of my choice.
 
QuasWexExort said:
Why the choice of a conservative spread ? You are expecting a "way more drop" and only a 2 week window..
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Because it looks like nothing is taking down this market, see the price action yesterday. But a vertical spread still makes you money even if you are only partially right. I also have my futures account ready so I can jump on the fall anytime, there is no reason to get chopped up in the maintime.

Seriously, I have never seen such a relentless bull action like in the last 2 months. Any move to the South gets bought up almost right away. No strategy is needed, just buy and hold... After yesterday, I guess there is a good chance my prediction won't work out, but let's just stick to it...
 
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