Peak oil thread
- Thread starter m22au
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Quote from lorax2013:
Quote from m22au:
[I'm still waiting for further confirmation in the financial markets before I start making trades based on peak oil.
That was good for a chuckle. You're about a decade late to the party.
That post you quoted was from 24 November 2010.
If you see here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3066125
I've done OK since January 2011 with short positions in airlines.
Updating the ES and COIL figures:
This morning COIL has broken above the big round number of $110 and front month (October) is now 110.85.
ES at 1196.75
ES / COIL ratio = 10.80
So still holding below the 11.41 figure quoted in this post from 5 August:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3259174#post3259174
I haven't read the following articles in full yet, but from the first couple of paragraphs they are of interest to me:
"Things That Make You Go Hmmm.... Such As The Brent-WTI Disconnect And Why It Is So Sticky"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-brent-wti-disconnect-and-why-it-so-sticky
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...geroot/2011/09/hmmm_sep_04_2011_pdf_20070.pdf
snippet:
"So why doesnât âthe oil priceâ reflect this likelihood? Simple: 1. China has a LOT of paper money and is happy to swap it for hard assets that it knows will ulti- mately be far more beneficial in the long run as Western governments continue to debase their currencies. 2. Western governments continue to debase their currencies."
"Guest Post: Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse?"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-where-our-oil-price-collapse
snippet:
"If the U.S. isnât driving oil demand in the world, then why are prices going up? There are three main factors:
Dramatic increase in demand from China and other developing countries.
A plunging U.S. Dollar
Peak oil has arrived"
"Things That Make You Go Hmmm.... Such As The Brent-WTI Disconnect And Why It Is So Sticky"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-brent-wti-disconnect-and-why-it-so-sticky
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...geroot/2011/09/hmmm_sep_04_2011_pdf_20070.pdf
snippet:
"So why doesnât âthe oil priceâ reflect this likelihood? Simple: 1. China has a LOT of paper money and is happy to swap it for hard assets that it knows will ulti- mately be far more beneficial in the long run as Western governments continue to debase their currencies. 2. Western governments continue to debase their currencies."
"Guest Post: Where Is Our Oil Price Collapse?"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-where-our-oil-price-collapse
snippet:
"If the U.S. isnât driving oil demand in the world, then why are prices going up? There are three main factors:
Dramatic increase in demand from China and other developing countries.
A plunging U.S. Dollar
Peak oil has arrived"
In 1973 Nixn declared it a matter of national security for the US to achieve energy independence by 1980. Carter continued that policy, against much opposition, most of it from the GOP, but substantial amounts from his own party, as well.
Reagan completely undid it, choosing instead to prop up despotic regimes in oil rich countries and *increasing* US dependance as a way of pandering to voters. His successors, right up to now, have done the same.
The world would be a saner place today if what Nixon/Carter started had been finished.
We had 40 years to make an intelligent transition. Now, it's too late,
Now, we are, plainly and simply, fucked.
Reagan completely undid it, choosing instead to prop up despotic regimes in oil rich countries and *increasing* US dependance as a way of pandering to voters. His successors, right up to now, have done the same.
The world would be a saner place today if what Nixon/Carter started had been finished.
We had 40 years to make an intelligent transition. Now, it's too late,
Now, we are, plainly and simply, fucked.