Peak oil thread
- Thread starter m22au
- Start date
Peak oil will only be able to prove in hindsight, but I'm posting here another point to bookmark oil's relative strength in the last few hours.
ES in a range of 1183.50 to 1202.00 in the last 2 hours, last 1194.00
$COIL in a range of 104.30 to 107.80 in the last 2 hours, last 107.75
$COIL low of $104.30 was at 2.39am
at that time ES was 1190.25
ES / COIL ratio = 1190.25 / 104.30 = 11.41
then using the "last" figures above 1194 / 107.75 = 11.08
so time will tell if 11.41 is an important (peak) level, or if I'm wrong
ES in a range of 1183.50 to 1202.00 in the last 2 hours, last 1194.00
$COIL in a range of 104.30 to 107.80 in the last 2 hours, last 107.75
$COIL low of $104.30 was at 2.39am
at that time ES was 1190.25
ES / COIL ratio = 1190.25 / 104.30 = 11.41
then using the "last" figures above 1194 / 107.75 = 11.08
so time will tell if 11.41 is an important (peak) level, or if I'm wrong
I think we are already going thru peak conventional oil. Understanding peak oil is complicated because there are different grades of oil and different extraction techniques that also affect cost.
But you also have a fiat money system, not a gold standard, so central bank reflation attempts also drives the price higher, as well as adding a certain amount of a speculation premium on the cost of oil.
But the biggest factor to me is demand destruction. Before China and India became modern economies reliant on oil, whenever the West- Europe and the US went into recession, oil prices typically slumped significantly. That price drop was a tax break of sorts that stimulated the economy. We don't have that anymore as emerging economies pick up a lot of slack demand from the west.
And so, I don't see oil reaching spectacular highs, barring a major global war. Peak Oil, instead, will act as a break on growth for the mature western economies that have traditionally relied on oil's price fluctuations that used to benefit these economies during economic downturns.
I see oil trading in a range, a high one at that, and killing off the rate of economic growth that is needed in a debt based fiat system.
Our monetary system post Bretton Woods relies on cheap credit and cheap energy - one pays off the other. Take either of those two away, and it's a different world.
Misthos,
Agree on just about everything.
That's why I'm looking at the ES / $COIL ratio, because it gives an idea of the extent to which "high" oil prices are crimping stockmarket gains. This is also an important tool for me to use, given my short position in airlines.
Obviously brent at $108 is much lower than what it was in July 2008, but what really matters is that in the last few months, ES / $COIL seems to be in a gradual downtrend.
If this downtrend continues for months / years, then this is the end of "cheap credit and cheap energy" and definitely a "different world" as you put it.
Agree on just about everything.
That's why I'm looking at the ES / $COIL ratio, because it gives an idea of the extent to which "high" oil prices are crimping stockmarket gains. This is also an important tool for me to use, given my short position in airlines.
Obviously brent at $108 is much lower than what it was in July 2008, but what really matters is that in the last few months, ES / $COIL seems to be in a gradual downtrend.
If this downtrend continues for months / years, then this is the end of "cheap credit and cheap energy" and definitely a "different world" as you put it.
Why don't you trade fish then
b/c the fishing business is seasonal and has certain limitations - the scope of a licence, odd and even years some more productive others don`t,water level in the fishing river,if it`s raining for weeks - you suck your thumb
etc..and becomes more and more restricted by the government each year.
besides,it is very hard job,you know.it`s way far from sitting on your ass by the computer all day long.do you know what the industrial fishery is?
try it.
etc..and becomes more and more restricted by the government each year.besides,it is very hard job,you know.it`s way far from sitting on your ass by the computer all day long.do you know what the industrial fishery is?
try it.
Updating the figures from Sunday evening action, especially since $COIL is a bit weaker than ES. (Both declining from Friday, but $COIL declining by more)
ES in a range of about 1161.50 to 1179 in the last 4 hours, last 1178.00
$COIL in a range of 106.20 to 108.50 in the last 4 hours, last 106.65
ES / COIL ratio = 1178 / 106.65 = 11.04
So the ES / COIL ratio is holding below 11.41 for now.
That was good for a chuckle. You're about a decade late to the party.
