Peak oil thread

M

m22au

Even though I believe that Peak Oil is real, I think the really bad effects of Peak Oil may take years to become evident.

Interesting article from Mish here about Jim Chanos, and the actions of big oil companies that suggest that they are experiencing their own micro-economic peak in oil reserves.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/jim-chanos-shorts-oil-companies-based.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apPnL_mjDJeA

One possible example of this is XOM. Its shares have not kept up with rises in oil in recent months.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Your 1st and 2nd sentences contradict each other...
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When I said "really bad effects" I was referring to:

* much higher oil prices (eg. $100 or more)
* more frequent recessions
* more frequent airline bankruptcies

I do not consider individual oil companies having their own individual 'peak moment' to be a 'really bad' effect.
 
In theory, peak oil sounds plausible. In reality it will not happen...i.e. we will not "run out" of oil anymore than we ran out of whale oil during the 1800's.

In fact, I would be willing to wager that in 10 years, proven reserves will be higher than they are today.
 
Quote from Arnie:

In theory, peak oil sounds plausible. In reality it will not happen...i.e. we will not "run out" of oil anymore than we ran out of whale oil during the 1800's.

In fact, I would be willing to wager that in 10 years, proven reserves will be higher than they are today.
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Peak oil is not about 'running out' of oil; it's about the rate of extraction peaking.
 
Quote from Arnie:

In theory, peak oil sounds plausible.

..and in real life, it is completely probable.


In reality it will not happen...i.e. we will not "run out" of oil anymore than we ran out of whale oil during the 1800's.

Man, you are ignorant:

1. Peak oil most likely has ALREADY happened.
2. We did run out of whales in the 1800s, the only reason they didn't become COMPLETELY extinct is that there was a new resource, crude oil replacing whale oil.

In fact, I would be willing to wager that in 10 years, proven reserves will be higher than they are today.

Even if so (although not likely), care to make a 2nd bet on the DEMAND side, that it will be much higher then proven reserves???

For extra credit:

"The North Atlantic population of gray whales is now extinct. Sub-fossils, so called because they are less than 10,000 years old, have been found on the east coast from New Jersey to Florida, the most recent dating to 1650 AD. The demise of this population was most likely due to whaling.

A Korean or western north Pacific population of gray whales is very close to being eliminated also, most likely due to whaling. The eastern north Pacific population is by far the largest surviving group, and probably amounts to about 20,000 individuals."
 
Quote from unretired:

The prospect that abiotic oil is a reality makes the Peak Oil theory outdated.
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You sir, are a moron. Just stating the obvious. Abiotic oil is like the pink unicorn, it is fun to talk about it, but doesn't really exist.

But let's assume just for educational purposes (I don't think you will get it, but some others might do), that oil actually replenishes its reservoirs. (as the abiotic theory states)

Have you ever heard of the American Buffalo? It went from a few 10 millions to a few hundreds, (basicly became extinct) because its breeding rate was much less than the rate of hunting.

The bottomline is that even replenisable resources can be depleted if the rate of usage is much higher than the rate of replenishment.

So please stop listening to your local Fox News channel and take a trip to the 4th grade class.

It will be very eye opening.....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Abiotic oil is like the pink unicorn, it is fun to talk about it, but doesn't really exist.
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You aren't very intelligent ... and as evidenced ... rude as well.

Clearly ... the Largest oil producer in world not only believes it but
proves it with their technology and evidence.

Argue with their scientists and evidence. Facts are facts. It is clear you are stuck in a erroneous logic loop.
 
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