PEAK OIL is PAST

[Pekelo]

Bitstream and Rcanfiel expressing their ignorance on the subject. Ironic thing is that those who deny the FACT of peakoil, (by the way there is also such a thing as peak coal, or peak uranium) usually don't know shit about the topic.

Quote from rcanfiel:

What is peak oil?

It is clear from your post that you don't even understand the concept. What you mentioned in your post are SUBSTITUTES for oil, and they are needed exactly because of the fact of peak oil.

Educate yourself before it is too late. So far peak oil happened in the autumn of 2005 with 85 mbpd and although it is possible that the world can produce a few barrels more, I have a running bet with anybody that we will NEVER see 90 mbpd....

That is a scary thought if you think about forecasts of 115 NEEDED by 2015.....

P.S.: For newbies and ignoramuses, theoildrum.com is your best friend...

 

[kashirin]

Quote from local_crusher:

I doubt it will stabilize in €.

Reason: Supply/Demand of course, but
furthermore: The US is applying pressure behind the scenes on G8 countries to follow it's policy to weaken paper currencies long term.

While € may be considered a "safe haven " now, don't be sure that is forever.

Why would ECB would follow?
It's likely Euro zone will surpass US GDP size because of weak US$ this or next year

Now ECB is more independent than Fed, their policy proved to be more productive than Fed and eventually Eurozone GDP is bigger than USA

So the Fed will need to consult ECB and follow them unless they stop inflating and discounting US economy

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Pekelo:

Bitstream and Rcanfiel expressing their ignorance on the subject. What you mentioned in your post are SUBSTITUTES for oil, and they are needed exactly because of the fact of peak oil.

Ignorance? If there are substitutes for oil, then it is the same as HAVING more oil.

Cardboard boxes replaced wooden barrels. Few people need barrels anymore

Automated toll booths replaced human tolltakers. We don't need them anymore

Cars replaced horse and buggies. See many around recently?

Factories have automated many processes; we need far fewer people in factory jobs anymore

Solar cells, oil shale/sands, methane hydrates, natural gas, wave power, wind power, hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, more energy efficient automobiles-appliances-lighting & buildings, conservation, and a host of other. Plugin cars. Many of these things are rapidly approaching the cost of using oil or coal. Heck, NYC even figured out a way to draw energy from its surrounding rivers to make energy. Tax credits and soon, tax penalties on petroleum users. They are learning how to make plastics out of corn and other plants rather than from petroleum. When Germans had little access to oil in WW2, they manufactured what they needed from alternative sources. And the technology to make these happen is exploding. You might eventually see $20 oil in 10-20 years, when 80% of the need for oil disappears due to cheaper technologies.

Did you miss the fact that there is more oil in shales and sands, then exists in places like Saudia Arabia and the rest of the world? It is OIL. It just takes more effort to extract. And that might change with new methods and technologies.

If you want to see ignorance, look in the mirror. Reinforcing an incorrect view does not make it more correct. Try studying some of the alternatives that are happening all over the world. Yes we are at the start, but peak oil will rapidly disappear as a major concern worldwide.

 

[vansmarket]

will crash the price of oil back to $40/barrel when iraq and iran go back to full oil production!

 

[vansmarket]

you need peace in the middle east such as iraq and iran..for oil to settle to $45-55/barrel

we are paying for the decline in the US dollar and war in iraq oil premium

Quote from rcanfiel:

Quote from Pekelo:

Bitstream and Rcanfiel expressing their ignorance on the subject. What you mentioned in your post are SUBSTITUTES for oil, and they are needed exactly because of the fact of peak oil.

Ignorance? If there are substitutes for oil, then it is the same as HAVING more oil.

Cardboard boxes replaced wooden barrels. Few people need barrels anymore

Automated toll booths replaced human tolltakers. We don't need them anymore

Cars replaced horse and buggies. See many around recently?

Factories have automated many processes; we need far fewer people in factory jobs anymore

Solar cells, oil shale/sands, methane hydrates, natural gas, wave power, wind power, hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, more energy efficient automobiles-appliances-lighting & buildings, conservation, and a host of other. Plugin cars. Many of these things are rapidly approaching the cost of using oil or coal. Heck, NYC even figured out a way to draw energy from its surrounding rivers to make energy. Tax credits and soon, tax penalties on petroleum users. They are learning how to make plastics out of corn and other plants rather than from petroleum. When Germans had little access to oil in WW2, they manufactured what they needed from alternative sources. And the technology to make these happen is exploding. You might eventually see $20 oil in 10-20 years, when 80% of the need for oil disappears due to cheaper technologies.

Did you miss the fact that there is more oil in shales and sands, then exists in places like Saudia Arabia and the rest of the world? It is OIL. It just takes more effort to extract. And that might change with new methods and technologies.

If you want to see ignorance, look in the mirror. Reinforcing an incorrect view does not make it more correct. Try studying some of the alternatives that are happening all over the world. Yes we are at the start, but peak oil will rapidly disappear as a major concern worldwide.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from vansmarket:

you need peace in the middle east such as iraq and iran..for oil to settle to $45-55/barrel

we are paying for the decline in the US dollar and war in iraq oil premium

If oil demand goes down even 25% from the new technologies & alternative energies, you will easily see oil down sharply. It dropped down to $13 a few years ago. Only growing demand and poor alternatives are keeping it up.

When the explosion of new technologies and high oil prices continues over the next 5 years, you will be amazed at what happens. Do some searches on the alternative energy companies. Just solar breakthroughs are exciting enough. Once these things start to near or parallel oil in price, then you will see them supported by huge tax subsidies to drive up usage. Carbon emission taxes over the next 5-10 years will likely price oil and coal out of the market soon once alternatives are scalable in a manufacturing sense. Even business is getting it about green.

 

[Pekelo]

Hey, I warned you that you were ignorant on the subject, but you wouldn't listen!

Quote from rcanfiel:

Ignorance? If there are substitutes for oil, then it is the same as HAVING more oil.

Except that is not what peak oil means (how to substitue oil?). A good start for you would be Wikipedia....

Did you miss the fact that there is more oil in shales and sands, then exists in places like Saudia Arabia and the rest of the world?

No I didn't, because I actually know more about the subject than you.
Problems with your argument :

1. Again, it addresses peak oilsand, but not peak oil.
2. For your info, the speed is incredibly LOW how oil can be extracted from oilsand. I will throw you some numbers:

The most what we can expect from the Canadian oilsand is 4 mbpd and that is about 10 years from now. (currently it is 1.5) That will hardly make up the needed 30 mbpd missing, according to any forecast by the year 2015...

So before you get excited, check the facts, learn logic and for fucks sake, read the definition of peak oil!

P.S.: Now you could have said, that "even though oil production is definiatelly will peak, there are plenty of substitutes".

That could have been a logically valid argument, although unfortunatelly factually still invalid...

 

[vansmarket]

public transportation of mass transportation would reduce demand for oil.

the car is still the major consumer of oil.

i'm still surprised countries like india and china with dense population don't promote mass transportation as much..

Quote from rcanfiel:

If oil demand goes down even 25% from the new technologies & alternative energies, you will easily see oil down sharply. It dropped down to $13 a few years ago. Only growing demand and poor alternatives are keeping it up.

When the explosion of new technologies and high oil prices continues over the next 5 years, you will be amazed at what happens. Do some searches on the alternative energy companies. Just solar breakthroughs are exciting enough. Once these things start to near or parallel oil in price, then you will see them supported by huge tax subsidies to drive up usage. Carbon emission taxes over the next 5-10 years will likely price oil and coal out of the market soon once alternatives are scalable in a manufacturing sense. Even business is getting it about green.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from vansmarket:

public transportation of mass transportation would reduce demand for oil.

the car is still the major consumer of oil.

i'm still surprised countries like india and china with dense population don't promote mass transportation as much..

china is pouring out battery powered electric bikes, since many cannot afford cars.

 

[rcanfiel]

Quote from Pekelo:

Hey, I warned you that you were ignorant on the subject, but you wouldn't listen!

The ignorance is all on your end. You keep banging the peak oil mantra, and ignore everything that is going on in the world. If oil is mostly substituted with alternatives, then Peak Oil becomes essentially irrelevant.

The most what we can expect from the Canadian oilsand is 4 mbpd and that is about 10 years from now. (currently it is 1.5) That will hardly make up the needed 30 mbpd missing, according to any forecast by the year 2015...

And projections 10 years into the future are reliable? Not.

So before you get excited, check the facts, learn logic and for fucks sake, read the definition of peak oil!

Again, irrelevant. I understand logic quite well. You however, pick a topic, and think anything that differs from your opinion is orthogonal to the topic.

P.S.: Now you could have said, that "even though oil production is definiatelly will peak, there are plenty of substitutes".

Why is this necessary??. You are crying about Peak Oil, and I said clearly, this is a problem we will not face.