As far as the peak oil argument, it's not even worth arguing, it's been beat to death and very few are interested/willing to engage in a politically unbiased, fact based discussion on the subject, not to mention it's damn near impossible to determine what statistics are in fact true due to the lack of accuracy and transparency from all major producing nations, not just Saudi Arabia.
At the end of the day the problem of high energy prices and strong demand will solve itself. Either crude will trade >100 (or some other "high" price) for an extended period of time which will provide the needed incentive for a mass effort to do all of the following:
- Decrease demand (not just the usual argument of reducing vehicle fuel consumption; ever noticed how many lights and computers are left on all night in the office buildings in Manhattan or any other large city?),
- Innovation in alternative fuels that actually consider whether a profit can be realized such that people are actually pursuing potentially profitable ideas, as opposed to losses that lead to mothballed plants (that is unless we want to "finance" unprofitable ventures for the sake of producing alternative fuels)
- Improve CAFE standards
- Wide scale development of public transit systems (at some point, at least in urban/suburban areas where public transit makes sense, many consumers would be glad pay for train and bus tickets to finance the infrastructure as opposed to $5 gasoline or diesel)
- More efficient drilling, production and refining processes, etc.
OR a significant global recession will reduce demand to a point that drive prices significantly lower and we'll have to wait for the next energy bull market to arrive before the cycle begins again.
While we're at it we should consider removing the subsidies/tax credits for alternative energies as they do little more than promote an inefficient allocation of capital to businesses/industries that wouldn't exist in their current state in a "free market" and would instead be allocated to more innovative/energy efficient ideas. As someone that trades refined products and biofuels, it's accurate to say that many US biodiesel producers are only able to turn a "profit" due to the splash and dash trade. Not to mention ethanol, one of the largest economic/energy scams of our lifetime.
In the meantime, the majority will continue to live life as usual and continue to bitch about higher prices but do little to attempt to reduce their own consumption.
At the end of the day the problem of high energy prices and strong demand will solve itself. Either crude will trade >100 (or some other "high" price) for an extended period of time which will provide the needed incentive for a mass effort to do all of the following:
- Decrease demand (not just the usual argument of reducing vehicle fuel consumption; ever noticed how many lights and computers are left on all night in the office buildings in Manhattan or any other large city?),
- Innovation in alternative fuels that actually consider whether a profit can be realized such that people are actually pursuing potentially profitable ideas, as opposed to losses that lead to mothballed plants (that is unless we want to "finance" unprofitable ventures for the sake of producing alternative fuels)
- Improve CAFE standards
- Wide scale development of public transit systems (at some point, at least in urban/suburban areas where public transit makes sense, many consumers would be glad pay for train and bus tickets to finance the infrastructure as opposed to $5 gasoline or diesel)
- More efficient drilling, production and refining processes, etc.
OR a significant global recession will reduce demand to a point that drive prices significantly lower and we'll have to wait for the next energy bull market to arrive before the cycle begins again.
While we're at it we should consider removing the subsidies/tax credits for alternative energies as they do little more than promote an inefficient allocation of capital to businesses/industries that wouldn't exist in their current state in a "free market" and would instead be allocated to more innovative/energy efficient ideas. As someone that trades refined products and biofuels, it's accurate to say that many US biodiesel producers are only able to turn a "profit" due to the splash and dash trade. Not to mention ethanol, one of the largest economic/energy scams of our lifetime.
In the meantime, the majority will continue to live life as usual and continue to bitch about higher prices but do little to attempt to reduce their own consumption.
